2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBloomberg Poll: Joe Biden Now Top Presidential Choice for 1 in 4 Democrats
As Hillary Clinton's ratings tumble, nearly half of those surveyed say they want the vice president in the race.Margaret Talev, Arit John
September 23, 2015 6:00 AM EDT
One quarter of Americans who are registered Democrats or lean that way say Vice President Joe Biden is now their top choice for president. The findings of a national Bloomberg Politics poll released Wednesday represent a notable achievement for an as-yet undeclared candidate, suggest concerns about Hillary Clinton's candidacy, and raise the prospect of a competitive three-way race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Clinton, once the prohibitive front-runner, is now the top choice of 33 percent of registered Democrats and those who lean Democrat, the poll shows. Biden places second with 25 percent and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is at 24 percent. The other three Democratic candidates combined are the top choice for less than 4 percent of that base.
Recent polls in states that will host the earliest contests of the presidential campaign, Iowa and New Hampshire, have shown Sanders closing in on and, in some cases, surpassing Clinton with Biden in a more distant third place. As Clinton's numbers have dropped, the vice president has been openly mulling a late entry into the race. But he is delaying a decision to allow himself and his family an opportunity to grieve the death of his son Beau to brain cancer.
Read the questions and methodology here.
The latest Bloomberg survey shows the vice president at par with Sanders in terms of Democratic support nationally. Adding to the good news for the vice president: His favorability ratings are on the rise. Since the last Bloomberg poll in April, Clinton's favorability ratings have dropped 10 points, from 48 percent to 38 percent. Biden's 49 percent favorable score represents a 3-point uptick. He was the only one of a dozen national political figures and entities whose approval rating improved over the summer.
He's been a very good, positive influence on the Obama administration, said Karen Hood, a 63-year-old consulting engineer from Houston, Texas, who said that Biden is her first choice. I think he would help carry on what President Obama has started.
more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-23/bloomberg-poll-joe-biden-now-top-presidential-choice-for-1-in-4-democrats
Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)Purveyor
(29,876 posts)Daemonaquila
(1,712 posts)It says nothing. There's an annoying thing called margin of error. If Biden actually was in the race, this poll might mean something. But it's all fantasy and nonsense, when someone is unannounced, untested in front of the actual electorate for the election cycle, and he's just an idea in people's minds versus two actual candidates who've been speaking and getting news coverage (and blistering GOP attacks).
If you're going to worry about that, worry about Clinton. She's the one who'll be losing votes to Biden.
Backwoodsrider
(764 posts)If he runs the press will jump on with both feet and look for blood because that makes them money. I would look forward to his point of view though. Now Sanders and Hillary and Joe and whoever else that would be a group of winners compared to the clown car, and people are realizing that.
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)He would beat her like a cheap Dollar General rug if he were to run.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)LettuceSea
(337 posts)Anita Hill, 90s record, RAVE, now abortion. The far left gripes, yet he continues to climb...
I think the "get everything out at once and take the hit" strategy seems to be working. I wish all our candidates took this route.
Response to LettuceSea (Reply #7)
olddots This message was self-deleted by its author.
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)... that he pushed so much through the Senate for his Delaware contributors.
I don't think that all of the MANY kids that are screwed with college debt now are necessarily "far left" that don't like his responsibility for a bill that in effects screws them out of getting a bankruptcy reset for their financial situation.
The fact that you don't mention it, shows that it is probably a little known issue that will lower his numbers later the more people learn more about it.
Daemonaquila
(1,712 posts)There is no Biden campaign. We know how well the polling predicted the race so far when Hillary and Bernie were slated against a slew of newly-announced and non-announced GOP candidates. This is fantasy football, and it's meaningless.
Biden is not a serious candidate. Some folks are trying to draft him, alternately to take votes from Sanders and then bow out hopefully leaving the field to Hillary, or to actually "save" the Dem slate from either an absolutely lackluster Clinton campaign and/or annoyingly popular Sanders campaign. Either scenario is disastrous.
If Biden wanted the presidency, he'd be running already. He's not. We don't need the VP thrown into the ring to spoil anything, and we don't need a potential top candidate who doesn't have his whole heart in it asking himself, "Crap, what do I do now?"
It's time for various political players to stop trying to manipulate this race. It's between Hillary and Bernie, barring disastrous decisions by either or both. It's time for the Party to STFU, support the announced candidates AGAINST THE GOP, and let the best (wo)man win.
jenmito
(37,326 posts)bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Is going to tear him down once he declares he's in the race.The bottom line is the media is trying to get a republican in the White House just like they did in 2000 with the constant negative news on him.
LettuceSea
(337 posts)Time to start looking at the big picture...
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I'll say it again, I don't see any benefit to Biden running unless there's reason to believe he has a much better chance than Clinton of winning the general election. Even if he runs, though, Clinton will most likely be the nominee--and not just because Biden is gaffe-prone.
Right or wrong, the perception will be that Biden got in the race because even Democrats don't think Clinton is electable, which will make Clinton look weak/vulnerable.
Biden is arguably to the right of Clinton, and Sanders isn't going to become the nominee with or without Biden entering the race. Yes, Clinton has close ties to numerous seedy corporations/firms and her high unfavorables are worrisome, but I don't know how any progressive could support Biden. Even if he does come off as a "nice guy."
Is it important that a Repugnant not become POTUS? Absolutely. But, again, unless Biden is much more likely than Clinton to win the necessary swing states (remember that the vast majority of states are already decided regardless of who the nominee is) and he can actually overtake Clinton to become the nominee, then what's the benefit to him running?
LettuceSea
(337 posts)Pretty sound argument if you don't think he is more electable than Clinton. It would get messy if they ran head-on, IF both were truly all in.
I personally think Joe is more electable at this point, very much because of that same swing states argument. He also has a better favorability rating amongst women and independents than HRC, and she will bring out the fire of the GOP's voting base. But I can also see how, if she can somehow turn the ship around, it's a big natural advantage in the General.
So at this point, doing what's being done now makes a lot of sense. Run HRC while keeping Biden visible, in case things somehow worsen. Officially eliminating either too early could bite us in the ass later.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I don't have a swing states argument, per se. Other than to say the election boils down to a handful of states. Actually, if the Democratic nominee can simply win Florida, it's probably game over. Those 29 electoral college votes would almost guarantee that the Democrat (whoever she or he is) will reach 270.
Assuming for a moment that Biden can actually overtake Clinton and win the nomination, is he more likely than Clinton to win Florida or Ohio or other of the swing states? I have no idea. Is it worth the risk of potentially damaging Clinton if Clinton still ends up being the nominee? Again, I don't know, but my hunch is that it isn't.