why didn't she win the nomination?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

He doesn't go up, he doesn't go down. His core is well established at this point.

That national polls at this point are about as useful as generic congressional party preference polls. You better believe those polls will change if he wins IA and NH. You know it and I know it.

The only polls matter are state polls and it's still too early to say on those. Momentum has been on Bernie ' s side.

So you can see the Bernie plateau.

His bump that just happened is from Fox, which one month ago also had his support at 30. He is a mid 20s candidate at this point.

Ok, I find trends lines harder to see over shorter time periods... But I can still see my analysis pretty clearly looking at the Aug-todate chart.

Try this:
On Sept 10th Biden's composite leveled off (20.0 then-20.8 now).
Since then: (2 weeks later)
Clinton's composite avg has fallen another 5.3 pts
Sanders' composite avg has risen 3.2pts
And the spread has fallen 4.8pts from 19.5 to 14.7 (a new all-time low).

Probably meaningless, but fun trying to figure out what's really happening.
I'll settle for Bernie is holding firm or rising despite Biden right now. Anyway you cut it... he's a contender according to the numbers so far. (imo)

Peace

so it is pretty hard to argue that he is a mid 20s candidate at this point.


It is unlikely that this is a plateau. It is more likely a slow down since a lot of the name recognition support that Hillary was getting has gone elsewhere. Some people are still not paying attention yet, it is still early, and it is likely that her soft support will continue to erode. The real question is, just how much of that support is soft?

I am seeing what might be a pattern within the trend. Because more emails are released every 30 days, the story dominates a few news cycles. At this point her numbers seem to tick down a little, then flatten out for a couple weeks without every really recovering. Then the next time the emails are released it happens again.

Since this has only happened a couple times it could easily be coincidence. We will need to watch what happens to the polling in the week or so after the next round of emails are released.

The combination of low trustworthy numbers and the recurring negative news cycles due to this story may have a lasting cumulative effect. Only time will tell.

His Fox trend is 0.

All other polls since the first Fox poll in chronological order:

29 (CNN high mark in period immediately after Fox)
24
26
23
21
22
22
20
23
25
24
20
27
27
21
28
24
27
24
26
25
29
24
24
28
24
25

And Fox at 30, again.

Including the two Fox polls, his straight average is 24.9 points with a standard deviation of 2.8 points (68% of all results fall between 22.1 and 27.7 points).

He is a mid 20s candidate at this point. And a very consistent one based on the data.

Dump Biden and its probably 56-36.

would be in big trouble.

Back in April the ratio of support for Clinton v Sanders was about 7:1
By June it was more like 5:1
In August, a little more than 4:1
Around September 1st it was at 2:1
Now it is around 1.5:1

It will be interesting to see where we are by Halloween.

She led in the polls for more than a year. It's a legitimate question because of all these posts that keep popping up about how much Hillary is leading in the polls in 2016.

If leading in the polls 4 months out before the first vote is cast means you're a shoe in then what happened in 2008?

Sept 24, 2007
Clinton - 40.9%
Obama - 23.6%

Jan 3, 2008 (Iowa Caucus)
Clinton - 45.2%
Obama - 24%

She's kicking butt on Mr mid 20%

Jan 9, 2008 (6 days after Obama wins the Iowa caucus)
Clinton - 37%
Obama - 30%
Still beating Mr (was) mid 20%

About a month later Obama passes Clinton in the polls and never looks back. Obama did this even after losing New Hampshire to Clinton. I think Bernie is taking a page from Obama's book on how to win the primaries even though you're losing in the polls.