Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

pinto

(106,886 posts)
Sun Jan 29, 2012, 06:01 PM Jan 2012

As GOP presidential contenders dogfight, how's Obama doing? (CS Monitor)

As GOP presidential contenders dogfight, how's Obama doing?

By Brad Knickerbocker, Staff writer / January 28, 2012

It’s way too early in the presidential campaign to make predictions about the 2012 outcome. But at this point, President Obama might confidently say, “I’ve got ‘em right where I want ‘em.”

Front-runners Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are battering each other rhetorically as Rick Santorum and Ron Paul circle around, trying to get a jab in here and there.

Obama’s approval ratings are inching back upwards as much of the electorate begins to see glimmers of hope in the economy. And if the election were held today, he would beat any one of them, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average.

Over at Betfair and Intrade, meanwhile, participants in those online betting and election prediction websites give Obama a comfortable lead in his chances of being re-elected – averaging 56 percent compared to 37 percent for Romney’s winning and just 2 percent for Gingrich. (Both Betfair and Intrade give Romney better than an 80 percent chance of being nominated – Gingrich is down in single digits – which gives some indication of Obama’s likely opponent and the way the incumbent is already framing his campaign.)

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0128/As-GOP-presidential-contenders-dogfight-how-s-Obama-doing



7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
As GOP presidential contenders dogfight, how's Obama doing? (CS Monitor) (Original Post) pinto Jan 2012 OP
How accurate is Intrade LostinRed Jan 2012 #1
No clue about Intrade. I see it cited at times, as well. Gut take, a little skewed, pinto Jan 2012 #2
It's accurate only as a measure of consensus opinion Orangepeel Jan 2012 #4
I think its accuracy lovemydog Jan 2012 #3
I don't believe it until Obama wins. mistertrickster Jan 2012 #5
Minorities helped Obama win FL Obamacare Jan 2012 #6
Romney is all but guaranteed to pick Rubio LostinRed Jan 2012 #7

pinto

(106,886 posts)
2. No clue about Intrade. I see it cited at times, as well. Gut take, a little skewed,
Sun Jan 29, 2012, 06:43 PM
Jan 2012

like internet gambling or such. Maybe others have a more informed take.

Orangepeel

(13,933 posts)
4. It's accurate only as a measure of consensus opinion
Mon Jan 30, 2012, 02:07 AM
Jan 2012

Is The Artist going to win the best picture Oscar? 83.3% chance. Most people who are willing to bet on it think so, just like most people willing to bet think that Romney will win the FL primary (97.1%) and that the President will win reelection (52.9%).

All these things are probably right, but consensus opinion can certainly be wrong and/or can change..

lovemydog

(11,833 posts)
3. I think its accuracy
Mon Jan 30, 2012, 12:49 AM
Jan 2012

is based solely on where the money is placing the bets. But I've never bet there. Maybe someone more familiar with it can explain it better. I'm interested too.

 

mistertrickster

(7,062 posts)
5. I don't believe it until Obama wins.
Mon Jan 30, 2012, 02:56 AM
Jan 2012

The electoral college and the way the electorate is divided means that whoever wins will have to win two out of these three states--the iron triangle, Florida, Ohio, and Penn.

Obama has probably lost Florida (given white backlash against the black guy) and Ohio is very iffy.

 

Obamacare

(277 posts)
6. Minorities helped Obama win FL
Mon Jan 30, 2012, 06:13 AM
Jan 2012

It was never the white vote anyway. White democrats will vote for him in FL, buy he just has to maintain his lead with Latino voters, mainly Puerto Ricans and young Cubans.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»As GOP presidential conte...