2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAs GOP presidential contenders dogfight, how's Obama doing? (CS Monitor)
As GOP presidential contenders dogfight, how's Obama doing?By Brad Knickerbocker, Staff writer / January 28, 2012
Its way too early in the presidential campaign to make predictions about the 2012 outcome. But at this point, President Obama might confidently say, Ive got em right where I want em.
Front-runners Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are battering each other rhetorically as Rick Santorum and Ron Paul circle around, trying to get a jab in here and there.
Obamas approval ratings are inching back upwards as much of the electorate begins to see glimmers of hope in the economy. And if the election were held today, he would beat any one of them, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average.
Over at Betfair and Intrade, meanwhile, participants in those online betting and election prediction websites give Obama a comfortable lead in his chances of being re-elected averaging 56 percent compared to 37 percent for Romneys winning and just 2 percent for Gingrich. (Both Betfair and Intrade give Romney better than an 80 percent chance of being nominated Gingrich is down in single digits which gives some indication of Obamas likely opponent and the way the incumbent is already framing his campaign.)
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0128/As-GOP-presidential-contenders-dogfight-how-s-Obama-doing
LostinRed
(840 posts)I always see it cited. I guess I could google search it myself.
pinto
(106,886 posts)like internet gambling or such. Maybe others have a more informed take.
Orangepeel
(13,933 posts)Is The Artist going to win the best picture Oscar? 83.3% chance. Most people who are willing to bet on it think so, just like most people willing to bet think that Romney will win the FL primary (97.1%) and that the President will win reelection (52.9%).
All these things are probably right, but consensus opinion can certainly be wrong and/or can change..
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)is based solely on where the money is placing the bets. But I've never bet there. Maybe someone more familiar with it can explain it better. I'm interested too.
mistertrickster
(7,062 posts)The electoral college and the way the electorate is divided means that whoever wins will have to win two out of these three states--the iron triangle, Florida, Ohio, and Penn.
Obama has probably lost Florida (given white backlash against the black guy) and Ohio is very iffy.
Obamacare
(277 posts)It was never the white vote anyway. White democrats will vote for him in FL, buy he just has to maintain his lead with Latino voters, mainly Puerto Ricans and young Cubans.
LostinRed
(840 posts)so there goes FL. IMO