2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton’s lead climbs higher nationally ahead of first debate
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/hillary-clintons-lead-climbs-higher-nationally-ahead-of-first-debate/22784/Hillary Clintons lead climbs higher nationally ahead of first debate
Despite a summer of the political pundits claiming that Hillary Clinton is struggling in the polls, the numbers themselves say thats never been the case. For months her lead over rival Bernie Sanders and potential rival Joe Biden has hovered in the twenty percent range in national polls, forcing the media to resort to reporting single-state outlier polls as if they were national polls in the hopes of making the race appear close for the sake of ratings. But even as Clinton prepares to head into the first democratic party debate, her dominant poll numbers are climbing even higher.
Last week three major national polls from PPP, IBD, and USA Today pegged Hillary Clintons lead over Bernie Sanders at 18, 20, and 18 percent respectively. Now the latest national poll from Fairleigh Dickinson pegs Clintons lead at 22 percent. The breakdown is that Clinton has 45 percent, Sanders has 23 percent, and Biden has 17 percent despite not actually running and not planning to participate in the first debate.
Various polls have suggested that most of Joe Bidens support would shift to Hillary Clinton if he announces that hes not going to enter the race. The first debate on Tuesday, which will feature Clinton and Sanders along with other democratic party candidates like Martin OMalley and Lincoln Chafee, may end up sending the polls in one direction or the other. But heading into the event, Clintons lead isnt just massive, its growing a bit.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Every time a poll comes out showing her losing ground, another obscure poll arrives saying the opposite.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/256586-poll-clinton-drops-10-points-in-5-days
Hillary Clinton is dragging her feet into the first Democratic primary debate on Tuesday, dropping 10 points in less than a week, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.
While Clinton enjoyed 51 percent support among Democratic voters in the polls Oct. 4 iteration, that number dipped to 41 percent support on Oct. 9.
Both Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Vice President Biden, who has yet to announce whether he will run for president, gained supporters from Clintons loss.
Sanders support increased from 24 to 28 percent over the same time frame, and Biden jumped from 16 to 20 percent support.G
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/07/17/in-this-money-race-bernie-sanders-wins/
Her campaign spent more than $900,000 on polling in the quarter that ended June 30th; Mr. Sanders, $0.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/clinton-mark-penn-polling-214637
Mark Penn is no longer Hillary Clintons chief strategist and pollster, but her former campaign guru is still putting polls about his old boss into the field the ultimate insider is testing theories on how to make her electable during an outsider election.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)CBS Nat'l Poll (Sans Biden) Clinton 56% Sanders 32% /With Biden-Clinton 46% Sanders 27% Biden 16%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-still-leads-democratic-race/
BooScout
(10,406 posts)Several times. I lost interest in bothering with the other two.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)MBS
(9,688 posts)That explains a lot.Or maybe even everything.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)It's tactical politics of a really creepy kind.
MBS
(9,688 posts)lobodons
(1,290 posts)And hey, you did pull Hillary to the left. Mission accomplished. Thanks, Bernie.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)The debate hasn't started and you're giving up? Even Bernie will tell you he didn't expect his numbers to be this high. The fact that they are, is a HUGE warning sign to the rest of the candidates. This country is ready for a political revolution. And we still have a year to go yet. So give me a break. Yes, Bernie has brought her more to the left, which is a good thing, but she has a looooong way to go to reach Bernies agenda. Especially when it comes to breaking up the banks, single payer health system, and more support to rebuild the middle class.
Remember, she is bought and paid for by the 1%. The oligarchy!!!!
Sorry but I, and hopefully most, do not approve of store bought politicians.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)She is not "bought and paid for by the oligarchy". And no, there isn't a year to go, super tuesday is in March. She's the Democratic frontrunner of the Democratic party.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)Always has been. She has name recognition.
Bernie's movement has been phenomenal. All without media recognition. Wait and see what happens after this first debate. It should be everything I was hoping for. I can't wait to see all the truths exposed. The looks on their faces will be worth the price of admission.
enid602
(8,620 posts)Don't worry. He'll get plenty of 'media recognition' should he actually win the nomination. No doubt the same type of 'media recognition' that Hillary has suffered to date.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)Hit the nail on the head.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)No.
bvf
(6,604 posts)Thanks in advance.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)What you said it's not true.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Fearless
(18,421 posts)You're cherry picking specific races and claiming falsehoods
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)These are her top 20 contributors:
American Federation of Teachers, Committee On Political Ed, Emily's List, Womencount PAC, Machinists and Aerospace Workers, Office and Professional Employees Union, National Association of Letter Carriers, New York's Health and Human Service Union, Union of Painters and Allied Trades, National Organization For Women PAC, Amalgamated Transit Union, Civil Service Employees, The Denver Group, Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers, Letter Carriers Political Action Fund.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)I think you're the one who doesn't get it. Read the full article.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Again, see above.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Unions are. And she was the senator from NY, those individuals are her constituents. My cousin works for Goldman Sachs, there are plenty of liberals who work in the financial industry, especially in NYC.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Enjoy your vote for Hillary. I now know where you stand. Problem is it's on the wrong side. I have nothing else to say to you.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)How did that obvious point fly over your head? She was senator from NY, so those are her constituents. It's disingenuous to list their employer, they are individuals. NY's biggest job sector is the financial industry which employs millions.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)She is bought and paid for by those interests.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)"My cousin..." throws the needle on any bullshit meter through the glass.
I have a cousin who thinks Obama has a plan to send ATF agents to every home to confiscate its firearms.
See how that works?
Fearless
(18,421 posts)"People say Obama is going to steal your guns"
It isn't true but they qualify their rant with that phrase all the time as though it gives their biased commentary validity.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Lehman Bro doesn't even exist anymore, just how much assistance is she going to be to them?
How old is this list?
How about you actually showing some data of 2015 election cycle donors.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)It hasn't been wound down YET, 7 years after. That was some tangled ball of yarn.
bvf
(6,604 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)I guess it's important to rehash old news?
bvf
(6,604 posts)Are you suggesting anything that happened prior to June, 2014 simply doesn't matter? That's a pretty lame stance.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)They were purchased by Barclays. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brothers
The point remains.....let's look at 2015 election cycles donors.
I have perused Open Secrets, where the donor chart upthread originated, and their numbers regarding donations are generally lifetime (political life time of the candidate) donations. In addition they are very clear to differentiate between company donations and those individuals working for the company. Too bad that so many Bernie supporters want to belittle and disparage the employees of financial institutions (who btw often also have unions) simply because they chose to vote in a manner they feel is best for them.
Response to Demeter (Reply #66)
Sheepshank This message was self-deleted by its author.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)...Do you have any idea how many employees Citigroup has?
BernieFan57
(80 posts)And the leadership of many unions come from the same social and political swath as mainstream corporatist democrats.
My observations have been that the union membership is often not in Clinton's camp.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)BernieFan57
(80 posts)Did you even understand this?
A union doesn't go to the workers and get permission or advice from the workers-- the leaders act unilaterally and then claim that, for example, "40,000 teachers support ____________" when in fact they don't.
A union endorsement is not an endorsement by the members or workers of a union.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)disagree and sometimes many of us agree on who to support or not. In the end-surveys in one form or another are taken.
bvf
(6,604 posts)And please describe the process governing the weight of your input in those cases insofar as you are able.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)BooScout
(10,406 posts)...and I thought if you wanted her qualifications, then it was only fair you gave yours.
bvf
(6,604 posts)personal information about another poster without that poster's permission?
BooScout
(10,406 posts)You are the one asking what Unions she has been in. Btw...still waiting to hear your qualifications.
bvf
(6,604 posts)Do you even pay attention to your own posts? It sure doesn't look like it.
When riversedge responds to my inquiry with an earnest reply, I'll be happy to reply further. I won't waste any more time on you, however, owing to your obvious lack of respect for other posters' privacy.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)Is that I referred to Riversedge as a 'she'....which is not a secret if you were even remotely familiar with her, which you obviously aren't ( or are pretending you didn't know). I find it rather strange that you want HER to share HER union credentials with you, yet accuse me of invading HER privacy by revealing the non-secret that SHE is female.
Btw....Riversedge knows that I respect her privacy because we are friends. I'll give her a link to here if that will make you happy.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)not feel the need to respond to you after you treated another DU member like you did.
Have a good day.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)I appreciate it.
bvf
(6,604 posts)to back up your statement.
To recap:
You've said you've been a union member, but actively choose not to provide any further info, much less describe the mechanism by which your so-called "membership" translated into putative influence.
Seems to me you're shoveling indefensible bullshit, ma'am. Otherwise, you'd be able to back up your assertions with something more than empty, petulant whining, which we now see is beyond your ability.
No wonder why that is.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I should make a list of the Bernie is going to win talking points just for shits and giggles when Hillary is nominated
George II
(67,782 posts)BooScout
(10,406 posts)(and it isn't Sanders)
https://www.unionfacts.com/pol/Hillary_Clinton_D/N00000019
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Demeter
(85,373 posts)as soon as it's safe, she will dash for her comfort zone at her masters' bidding. And no, I'm not talking about the unions.
I will vote for Sanders in the primary. If Hillary wins, I'll vote for her in the general election, but I expect she'll flip flop back to the right on any positions she has changed due to Sanders running.
She's been pulled to the left, but that elastic tethering her to the right will snap back as soon as the pull is removed. So the pull must not be removed. Or the elastic must be cut or wear out.
Don't ask me what that means, except GO BERNIE!
BlueStateLib
(937 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)and demonstrate how she's "bought and paid for by the 1%".
Thanks.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Now can we get back to defeating the teahaddists before they force their nutcase religious laws on us all?
There's only one person running that can do that and her name is Hillary Clinton!
And I'm I'm sick of all the anti democratic party hysteria on this website.
nankerphelge
(1,012 posts)I'm mostly tuning this place out these days.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)This place reads like Redstate/freakrepublic lately
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Apparently all the democrats suck so bad in your eyes that you think Ben Carson and Bobby Jindal have really strong chances. Huh.
frylock
(34,825 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)I guess some like the warm comfort of having the Oligarchy take care of them. But I say it's a moral issue when we accept that 16,000,000 American children live in poverty. Those that support Goldman-Sachs for president, must be ok that that number is most likely to get larger.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)tecelote
(5,122 posts)It's all Bernie needs. Hillary and Joe are household names. Bernie just needs exposure.
Honesty and integrity will win the day.
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)And it all starts Tuesday.
The truth shall set you free. Estimate another 20M viewing it.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Quackers
(2,256 posts)I can't wait to see how Hillary and Bernie debate each other!
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)Walk away
(9,494 posts)asjr
(10,479 posts)the ones they want to be ahead. Next week it will change. The newscasters will do whatever they are in the mood for and the news channels will make something up and change the next week. However will they get the people to read the newspapers or watch the T.V.? The dark horse is waiting.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)I look for her to win NH and Iowa.
Response to FloridaBlues (Reply #38)
Name removed Message auto-removed
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
Gothmog
(145,291 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)for liberal solutions, though, Ucrdem, and also thus allowing our candidates to campaign on more liberal solutions. Analysts are now admitting that they literally did not know how big the support was until Warren and Bernie made it clear, and they are continuing to enlighten.
Remember, most people refuse to use the word "liberal" or support anything with liberal attached because the right turned the word into an insult, much less "socialist." They also don't know where they're really at.
BTW, the exit I want is much later and inspiring to people across the political spectrum as he throws what I hope will be considerable support to our eventual nominee. Much as that idea offends those who still hope for a President Sanders.
Time_Lord
(60 posts)is not my candidate... it's that one that is pretending to be MY candidate.
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)the formidable woman standing in the middle of the stage, where she belongs.
The withering, messy death of the BGazhi deception, and the exposure of it all being a criminal fraud, the resultant implosion of the GOP, combined with the no-one-cares yawner of EGazhi, not to mention Clinton's clear movement to the Left on so many issues, could not have been more perfectly timed.
Timing is everything in politics, the other candidates on the stage seem not to agree.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)The fact Biden is not participating.....do you think the pollsters will still include him AFTER the debate?
That should be interesting!
BooScout
(10,406 posts)...he announces he isn't running. .....and knowing the press.........they may very well include him in the polls after that just for laughs and giggles.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)riversedge
(70,242 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)will Biden be "declared" the winner! Or will "they" decide it is all about the "losers" that Biden whipped......and was he not even there?! How awesome is he??
Ah, the possibilities for the paid pundits is endless......as endless as the promised rivers of ad and campaign cash to flow to them so, so soon.... thanks CU....now it is a chore to find a pundit or a news source that is NOT corrupt.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)highest polling candiate. Bernie and O'Malley flank her as the next highest polling candidates, then Chafee and Webb on the ends. No position for Biden so far, but he polls high...
I share your opinion of her abilities, but as a woman she has to somehow perform better and look twice as nice while doing it as the rest. You know, the dancing backwards and in high heels thing.
I'm hoping Bernie's rather cranky, humorless face stays alongside hers.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)So polls are important? I'm getting whiplash from the changing perspective on the importance of polls. Weathervane, I think some call it.
Fwiw, Hillary supporters are not worried that she is 23% instead of 28% ahead of anyone...just so long as she is ahead.
Evergreen Emerald
(13,069 posts)I know it is early, and the polls always tighten once the season gets started, but it is fun to watch.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I think most people have already made up their minds on who they support. At the most there are about 20% undecided and my guess is they will break in about the same proportion as Bernie and Hillary supporters are now.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)CBS Nat'l Poll (Sans Biden) Clinton 56% Sanders 32% /With Biden-Clinton 46% Sanders 27% Biden 16%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-still-leads-democratic-race/
duggie99
(40 posts)I read DU all the time and love many of the posts. I will vote for the Democratic Party nominee for President who ever that might be. These Republicans are getting crazier by the minute and can not ever hold the highest office of this great country. In the mean time I love all the posts for Bernie and Hillary and have like them both.
oasis
(49,389 posts)R B Garr
(16,954 posts)William769
(55,147 posts)William769
(55,147 posts)Avalux
(35,015 posts)HassleCat
(6,409 posts)Well, that's good. We certainly don't want some rebellious upstart coming in and shifting the debate toward issues such as universal health care, regulation of the financial industry, etc. That would be class warfare! Dangerous progressive ideas have no place in our party. We have to be ideologically vague, so as to not allow the Republicans to steal our issues and positions. Whatever they might be.