No FRUCKING way Romney should have been tied of a point or two behind BO in July.
None.
He got a bounce when he became the presumptive R nominee, and that was likely to get him in the range.
But, he has been disaster machine, one gaffe after another, and I am sorry, there is NO WAY that BO should not have gotten a bounce after the AHCA got the stamp of approval from the Supreme Court. NONE. That was a MASSIVE win for BO, and it would have been something that was a major blow had it turned the other way. But, polling showed almost no movement within two weeks of it.
IMO, BO with a 5 point lead give or take is the TRUE measure of this race right now, in the context of a "liberal" media intent on trying to make it a horse race.
THAT being said, Romney IS going to pull to a tie, give or take, or a slight lead, with his VP pick and convention, and it will extend into the D convention. GREAT timing for the Ds with their quick turnaround. The media WILL be all giddy over the R convention and push a run to him generally, then point to that as some major problem for BO.
It will likely normalize about two weeks after the D convention with BO regaining a small, but clear lead. From that point Romney will hurt himself by being himself - mean, angry and flat unlikeable vs BO being cool and likeable.
The only variable remains an "October surprise" relative to the economy or national security.
= new reply since forum marked as read
