temporary "bump", which will not last (never does). The polls about a week after the "excitement" dies down will tell the story.

There is always a bounce for a VP pick. There are always bounces for the conventions. There are always changes due to debate performances.

The next 4-5 weeks will not be the most accurate reflection of the state of the race.

We really need to wait until about a week after our convention to really even start looking at polls. There still might be some disappointing ones which come out between now and then. Bumps in the road are inevitable. The key is to keep our heads down and continue to fight hard.

desperation in the pick... this Hail Mary type of pick. It's making the "sexy" pick for the base and hoping it doesn't blow up in your face. Unfortunately for Rmoney, he just lost seniors now (already lost women, Hispanics, blacks, and the college educated) because BELIEVE ME, Team Obama will exploit the HELL out of this pick. There won't be anyone but Montgomery Burns left to vote for him at this point.

Romney's camp is working hard by voter suppression and id laws to CHEAT their way into the White House. Dems have to use this opportunity to work "harder" to clinch this election. I asked a young lady in the elevator on the 7th if she voted. She told me "no, I'm not even registered." She asked me "Who should I vote for?" I said,"Vote Democrat and vote for Obama. Ask one of the ladies at the poll where do you go to get registered..." She said, "I will.." Sad to say there are TOO MANY YOUNG PEOPLE like this. We have to WORK now and CELEBRATE later!

But it is something to feel very optimistic about. I think its good because optimism breads entusiasm which in turn leads to more donations, volunteering, and more voters showing up at the polls.

Amen to that!

thanks for correcting my mispellings! I am so bad with that sometimes.

It's the message that counts.

I'm just like you("Republicans Scare Me&quot ... I don't trust the Republicans either. I'm glad we have a lead right now because all the enthusiasm will help counter any TRICKS the Republicans got up their sleeve...

are apathetic about voting. Don't they care about which politicians represent them, and which ones are trying to deprive them of a shot at success? And registering to vote and researching candidates isn't that complicated.

They'd even want to manufacture this low point so they can claim a raising campaign for a month, or two.

They would certainly want us to know these numbers and retain them now.

Aside: I'm surprised. We usually don't get all this breakdown so easily presented. Hmmmm.

circling over your house.


The truth is that this is the last thing the Romney campaign wanted. They wanted to run a cautious campaign, where news about the economy would let them almost "sneak" into the Presidency with little effort.

Instead they found out just being an alternative would not work. They were losing. And they were starting to lose badly.

As a result, they completely flipped their campaign strategy and rolled the dice.

They needed to change the trajectory of the race just like Mondale did when he picked Ferraro. And McCain did when he picked Palin. Both picks turned out to be historic disasters. This current pick was taken in the same vein. And it too, will end up being a disaster.


As for the Poll breakdown, I always break down polls. Numbers are very important.

But just as important....is who is doing the poll?

And where did the information come from that led to the top number?

Cross-tabs are vital. They often are more valuable than the headline grabbing final top number.


There's no master conspiracy plan here. Nobody is trying to trick you.

And, you think there are no tricks in this campaign? Okay. From nobody, eh? Okay.

Personally, I don't see black helicopters in the sky or in my posts. I do think there have been, are, and will be tricks pulled in campaigns.

Also, yes, the numbers are important. And, like you, I like seeing the breakdowns. Yet, I don't get to see the breakdowns as much as I would like to see them. Oh well, I don't.

I still say that Rs would like the numbers to be low at this point in the campaign, so they can exclaim how the polls are rising for them, even if real polling would show the opposite.

As I said in the OP, the electoral college actually looks even worse. What you are talking about is how the Rs plan to "spin" their current situation, "if" the numbers improve. Your theory is not an accurate description of where the Rs hoped the campaign would be at this point in the race.


There was no way initially, that Romney wanted Ryan. He chose Ryan because he is losing. And this too is a position he didn't want to be in. Especially at this point in the campaign.



The Romney campaign was losing. And losing much worse than the media reports. As a result he is gambling with Ryan. And this was a gamble he didn't want to have to make.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014192806

Like hell they didn't want a lift.

Even now, they can only say it is not immediate, as though we should expect better, later.

....and that once he's reelected he fights as hard for Democratic policies as he's fighting now for his job.

I'm keeping all my fingers crossed. I'm still deeply concerned about election fraud and how much of an impact it will have on the final outcome.

has been leading by 6-10 points in several polls prior to that.

after the Palin love affair started to wain Obama took off. I think the momentum is the same this time.

. . closer according to his rightwing polls.
He was absolutely giddy over the fact that the unemployment rate was still over 8%.
So much so that I thought he was going to pee his pants since he was squirming around so much in his chair.
Then he added that he didnt think that the unemployment numbers would come down in time to help President Obama before the election in November.

I sat there watching Rasmussen and thought to myself, so this guy wants people to still be out of work, struggling to pay their bills, in November just so his guy can get into the White House?!?
What a slug!

The fact that the Dow Jones is over 13,200 never came up once in the conversation he had on that program on Faux Snooze, though.

Coupled with the fact that Romney wanted the auto companies to go bankrupt in 2008, I don't see how he thinks Romney knows a damn thing about employment or creating jobs.
The only thing Romney learned at Bain was how to take out loans on healthy companies that they bought off, take that loan money for themselves, and then watch the companies struggle keeping afloat until they were sold off or went bankrupt.

As long as people don't get complacent. There are a few issues we need to be watching carefully one of which is voter suppression. Mitt and his creeps are going to try to use their money to blanket the airwaves with lies. I'm encouraged by the quick response by the Obama campaign.

Based on the most recent census data I could find, only about 66% of the US population is white, non-hispanic. Black, Hispanic and other minority votes are going Democratic in droves, and the current rightwing policies of the GOP are pushing them out of the tent just as fast as they can go. So we have about 80-90% of the non-white vote for the foreseeable future.

Obama is also killing Romney/Ryan with women voters. Last numbers that I saw showed Obama leading by more than 20 percentage points, and I don't think that comes as a surprise (Forced Vaginal Ultrasounds, anyone?). And the Democrats are also doing fabulously well among younger voters, who tend to be far more socially progressive than their parents and grandparents.

When you peel off women and younger voters (and I suppose you could also peel off elderly voters now that Paul Ryan is on the ticket), the core of the GOP boils down to middle-aged white men, and that's less than 20% of the electorate. There's simply no way any Republican can win enough of those votes to win an election.

So if you're wondering why the GOP is pursuing a furious program of voter suppression, now you know.