2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDeciding the "winner" is a bit more complex than some make out.
What it means to "win" in the debate is the question that needs to be first addressed.
I am of the opinion that a "win" can only be measured by who gains the biggest bump from the performance and that can only be answered when we see the next round of polls.
But another factor that must be considered is the relative starting position of the candidates. A win can only be measured against the position of and the expectations for the candidate in question.
Hillary, going in as the frontrunner with quite a big lead, has the highest hurdle to clear. Not only is the most expected of her, but she has the most to lose.
Hillary did VERY well in my opinion. She was cool, calm, knowledgable. It is hard for me to see how she may have lost supporters with such a fine performance. But it must also be remembered that she this should be expected of her. Her name recognition is already extremely high and has a lot less to gain compared with Sanders who is fighting decades of obscurity.
Sanders, on the other hand, can gain enormously from this debate. He performed extremely well in my estimation. His message was, as always, clear and unwavering and as a person, I think he won points for his intelligence, passion and sense of fair play when he defended Hillary on the email scandal. From this debate, he is certain to have gained a great deal of recognition and convinced many that he is no longer a "fringe" candidate, but a heavy hitter with a fierce sense of what is right for the working people of America -as well for his unparalleled urgency about the environment which he listed as the country's biggest crisis.
So... measuring a winner must be done with an eye for what was expected of them and what they can gain. In my view, Sanders will get the most punch from this appearance. Polls will reveal whether I am right or not. But no amount of rah-rahs on DU will have any effect on that. Although I admit I do find the scrambling fro position to call a winner to be at least entertaining.
stone space
(6,498 posts)Is this question destined to be asked of every candidate from now on?
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)corkhead
(6,119 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)The only appropriate historic response:
Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?
Bucky
(54,086 posts)while dressed like Uncle Pennybags...
However, it is still the obligatory response to "Are you now or have you ever been...".
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)any actually voting. No doubt it is all very entertaining, but treat it as such, but stop with the serious faces, because at this point in the Never-Ending Campaign things are not yet all that serious.....and 7 more debates to go!
To me it is another "all sides and arguments are equal" brainwashing....simplifying complex issues to a horse race, with two horses, that are still being groomed in the stables and are no where near race time, though the race track stands are open.
But on the issues that are being ignored in favor of the horse race.....Democrats lap the GOP every time.
Therefore, for the mass corporate media, it is all about the horse race...who cares about the issues, am I right?
Which is why the highly predicted to be boring "no-Trump" debate must have shocked most Americans and all the very wrong pundits with how more interesting it was than the Big Top clowning around of the GOP.
MineralMan
(146,336 posts)real poll results taken after the debate. Those will start coming in soon. Then, we'll get a clearer picture of how the candidates did in the opinions of those who really matter, the mass of voters.
We'll have a clearer picture soon.
I think, though, that Joe Biden decides to opt out of running. I'm certain that those polls will reflect a drop in his numbers.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)This is really sort of an aside, but I heard something not terribly clearly last night during the debate that goes to Bernie's sense of fair play. It is not only us who pick up on that. I swear I heard Jim Webb complaining about not getting enough camera time some time around the middle of the debate, so he appealed to Bernie's sense of fair play by seeking his Bernie's advocacy. "Tell them Bernie." Webb pleaded after feeling slighted by the debate format. Bernie politely dismissed him with a comforting "I will." or something to that effect, I'm thinking he didn't follow through on that, (not that I feel he should have), but it was interesting to me that Webb would seek the aid of the fairest most decent man on the stage.
Puglover
(16,380 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)I think that both Hillary and Bernie did great. People who already had a favorite will likely think their favorite did best, because whatever they admired about their favorite was present on the debate stage. For example, I thought Hillary came out the best, but then I'm partial to Hillary to begin with.
We'll see what the polls say in a week or so. My guess is that Biden goes down, and both Hillary and Bernie gain a little. Bernie because of the wider exposure thing you mentioned, and Hillary because people who were leaning Biden because they sensed vulnerability in her camp will come away more reassured from this performance.
If anyone missed an opportunity, it would be O'Malley, who did fine but I don't think well enough to turn himself into a real third contender. He'll get more name recognition, but I don't see any space for him that's not already taken up by either Bernie or Hillary.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Clinton mostly needed to "not lose". She did well on that. A "put away all the challengers" performance would be better, but isn't really under her control. It would have required the other candidates to screw up.
Sanders and O'Malley needed more people to find out about them - their "don't know enough about them" in various polls was pretty high. So they needed more people to find out 1) that they exist and 2) that they are worth looking into. And both of them did well on that front.
IMO, the "loser" of the debate is the "draft Biden" movement. Clinton did well enough to not appear to need a back-up. And Sanders and O'Malley both showed that they can stand on their own.
Where this gets interesting is what happens as "draft Biden" fades. The media might have to actually start paying attention to the candidates who are not Clinton. Or not. We'll see.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Well, not quite everything, but close enough. The one disagreement is that I don't think O'Malley did as much as he could or needed to to really bring himself into contention. I think Sanders and Clinton did what they needed to do, and I agree that because of that, the draft Biden movement is the "loser" here.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)O'Malley wasn't really in a position to "break out" via one debate. There isn't enough ideological space for him to burst onto the scene.
At the same time, compare him to Webb and Chafee. Neither of them did much to answer "Why are we bothering to have you on stage?", Chafee a little worse than Webb. O'Malley showed that he deserved to be there.
As for "What's going on here?!", don't worry. We'll still vehemently disagree on what happens next.
Bucky
(54,086 posts)Of course I watched in a sports bar and had to read the closed captioning to get the answers, so I might've missed nuances, but he didn't seem as on-fire as Sanders nor as comfortable as Clinton. He needs to tear into one or the other of the front runners to move into second place. He's still playing nice. It's like he's running for secretary of HUD.
The optics on Webb & Chaffee were horrible.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)All three of them are in danger of "why are we bothering to invite you?". Webb and Chafee didn't really help themselves on that front. O'Malley did.
He didn't get as much "win" as Clinton and Sanders, but IMO he got enough to keep himself relevant. And neither Clinton nor Sanders got enough "win" to knock him out.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)But, for me, it was easy; as easy as falling off a log.
Bernie didn't fall down while he was walking on to the stage, so he clearly won the debate.
That's all there is to it.
In case you didn't know it, some other people who post at the DU forum were saying that they hoped that Bernie would lose his temper and say something mean and nasty to Hillary.
Didn't happen.
In fact, Bernie did the exact opposite, he was nice to Hillary when he condemned the email scandal that Hillary created for herself.
Because that's the kind of guy Bernie is . . nice.
So, others can wait for the next round of polls if they want to, but not me.