2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA Word About Polls
Much has been written about who is polled, by whom, and how the numbers are presented (i.e., cherry picking to ensure the snapshot is advantageous to your candidate). But the inaccurate representation is when only Democrats are polled. Those numbers will always have Hillary in the lead because those are The Party Faithful, what we used to call Yellow Dog Democrats. They'll vote for whoever or whatever the Democratic Party shoves up there because they have the correct letter next to their name.
Conversely, Bernie's support is from all over the political spectrum. He's getting progressive Democrats, Greens, independents, disenfranchised, and yes, Republican and Libertarian (I've re-registered them personally) and those are the people who are not included in these polls. I believe Bernie is MUCH closer in state polls and nationally than we're being led to believe.
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)what do you call them now?
Bernblu
(441 posts)Last edited Thu Oct 15, 2015, 04:25 PM - Edit history (1)
Bernie has support in all parties because he is speaking for the working and middle classes against power.
mythology
(9,527 posts)Many states have either a closed or semiclosed primary system. It's logical to assume that Democrats will make up a majority primary voters.
Unless you have some sort of actual proof that Sanders is attracting non-white, non-liberal support, the polling is pretty clear that Sanders isn't getting meaningful support from other political demographics. Obama used to talk about how he would get crossover Republicans in 2008. It was a great speech inclusion, but it didn't really materialize in a statistically relevant fashion.