2016 Postmortem

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,437 posts) Thu Aug 16, 2012, 04:37 PM Aug 2012

CNN: Wisconsin now "toss-up" state (Obama +1 right now)

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2012/08/16/exp-tsr-king-wisconsin-toss-up.cnn?hpt=hp_bn4

How long do you suppose this will last, though?

6 replies

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CNN: Wisconsin now "toss-up" state (Obama +1 right now) (Original Post) Proud Liberal Dem Aug 2012 OP

More fair and balanced goodness from CNN. Arkana Aug 2012 #1

Take a fake poll, add a dash of Kathy Nickolaus in November, and PRESTO! Blue Owl Aug 2012 #2

+1 ? I think you fell for CNN's horse race slant.... My Pet Goat Aug 2012 #3

I'm just reporting what's on the board via TPM Poll Tracker Proud Liberal Dem Aug 2012 #4

New poll: CNN/Opinion Research - Obama 49, Romney 45 (Obama +4) Tx4obama Aug 2012 #5

Okay, so I decided to check out Nate Silver's analysis Samantha Aug 2012 #6

Arkana

(24,347 posts)

1. More fair and balanced goodness from CNN.

Reply to Proud Liberal Dem (Original post)

Thu Aug 16, 2012, 04:38 PM

Aug 2012

It won't last long. Obama will win Wisconsin, even if it's not by as much as he did in 2008.

Blue Owl

(50,494 posts)

2. Take a fake poll, add a dash of Kathy Nickolaus in November, and PRESTO!

Reply to Proud Liberal Dem (Original post)

Thu Aug 16, 2012, 04:41 PM

Aug 2012

The Republicans have successfully lied, cheated, and stolen their way to office yet again.

My Pet Goat

(413 posts)

3. +1 ? I think you fell for CNN's horse race slant....

Reply to Proud Liberal Dem (Original post)

Thu Aug 16, 2012, 04:44 PM

Aug 2012

It is Obama +4.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,437 posts)

4. I'm just reporting what's on the board via TPM Poll Tracker

Reply to My Pet Goat (Reply #3)

Thu Aug 16, 2012, 04:53 PM

Aug 2012

n/t

It's another matter as to whether I believe it or not. Right now, the polling is so fluid.

Tx4obama

(36,974 posts)

5. New poll: CNN/Opinion Research - Obama 49, Romney 45 (Obama +4)

Reply to Proud Liberal Dem (Original post)

Thu Aug 16, 2012, 05:07 PM

Aug 2012

Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama

CNN/Opinion Research Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Samantha

(9,314 posts)

6. Okay, so I decided to check out Nate Silver's analysis

Reply to Proud Liberal Dem (Original post)

Thu Aug 16, 2012, 05:19 PM

Aug 2012

Here is the link:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
(updated yesterday, August 15)

Check out: the 538 forecast.

But in particular, two things make me really smile: State-by-State Probabilities

Massachusetts (yes, I know -- but I felt a sudden urge to see where its former Governor stands) -- 98.9 percent chance of Obama win. This leads me to think the Republican opponent does not realize this state does not think quite as much of Romney's record as Governor there as Romney does. The second smile? Maryland (the state where I live) 100% chance of Obama win. I know I live in the right state for my own comfort zone. If I leave, I should head out for Vermont.

He has Florida at 54.7 Obama win. And Wisconsin, 80.9 percent Obama win (nice going, Ryan!)

Sam

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