2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAll logic aside, there is room for real concern about this election
In 2008 I was like a broken record in conversations with friends, family and those I encountered when canvassing. Over and over I heard myself say that given voter turnout habits and other factors we needed an overwhelming lead to prevail.
We did that. Final polls gave Obama a lead of 5 to 7 points nationally. Currently on TPM's tracker page it's Obama by 1.3.
In 08 he lead from 7 to 9.8 points in PA. Now he's ahead by less than 6.
In VA he was up between 4 and 7 points. He leads by just 0.4 right now.
In Iowa he was up by 11. This time? 0.3
All the final polls are listed here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/latest-presidential-polls_n_140177.html
The 2012 TPM stats are at this link:
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/
FL and NC were tight last time too, but hoo boy some of the other contrasts gave me food for thought. Those big national leads last time around had a lot to do, I believe, with a ground swell of optimism and , um, Hope, that won't factor in quite so prominently this time. Low information voters and those who are on the fence about voting will need a personal touch.
I've been mostly out of work since December. My job as a Federal clerk was cut as a result of DOC restructuring. Uncertainty and blues have sort of kept me sidelined campaign wise but that's enough of that. I'm in. If he needed me last time, he sure as hell needs me this time. OFA just got another volunteer.
Allow me to encourage you. If you've been thinking about it, pitch in with some time. If you're already active, thank you and please forgive me for slow start.
https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/become-a-volunteer?source=vp-paul-ryan
I'm one of the temp election workers in my county and I can tell you that my experience with the primary race did nothing to encourage me about the efficacy of our system, even in my blue, blue WA.
get the red out
(13,468 posts)The President was down to McCain for a while in 2008? We aren't at the end of the election by far.
Pab Sungenis
(9,612 posts)I've said it before and will say it again. When you're five points up, run like you're ten points down. Take nothing for granted.
get the red out
(13,468 posts)renie408
(9,854 posts)I hate people who are concerned for the sake of being concerned.
But somebody that is using their concern to fuel action, well, that's OK in my book.
And you know what? I will be contacting our local campaign TODAY to see what I can do to help. Thanks for the spur.
Rose Siding
(32,623 posts)I can assure you that my motives were exactly that. Thank you.
renie408
(9,854 posts)Got my Dashboard and am all set to start doing something! I also went ahead and chipped in a little more money towards the effort. We usually send what we can, when we can, but I realized we haven't sent anything in August. So, your spur worked for me and did Obama some good. Good for you!!