Let's play "What's wrong with this analysis..." article by Charlie Cook

http://nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-the-presidential-race-shouldn-t-be-close-20120823

THE COOK REPORT
It Shouldn’t Be Close
But it is, and that’s partly due to Mitt Romney’s own personality and some missteps by his campaign.

"Just about any analysis of the 2012 presidential election should start with words to the effect that this is a very close race, that close races can go either way, and that many different factors—convention speeches, debates, verbal miscues, overseas conflicts—can change the trajectory of such a race. A decision by Israel to attack Iran, for example, would certainly scramble things.

Still, this race shouldn’t be as tight as it is. Whether one looks at polling measurements of whether voters think the country is headed in the right direction, at consumer confidence, or at key economic measurements such as growth in gross domestic product, deviations in the unemployment rate, or the change in real personal disposable income, it is puzzling, to say the least, why polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck. Incumbents generally don’t get reelected with numbers like we are seeing today.

Most everyone knows that the economy was in horrific shape, and worsening by the day, when Obama took office. But by the time a president is running for a second term, he pretty much owns the economy. There’s also some history here: Although economists can argue the merits of Obama’s 2009 stimulus package, the polling data show that the American people pretty much thought it was ineffective, if not a waste of money. Obama then turned his attention to a carbon cap-and-trade bill that passed the House but was dropped in the Senate amid opposition from states that produce fossil fuels.

Next came health care reform—obviously a very contentious topic. Let’s just hope that the thousands of pages of memos from Democratic pollsters arguing that the issue was a political winner were recycled so that there will be some benefit from that huge loss of trees. Basically, a year was lost on the Affordable Care Act before Obama could shift his focus back to the economy. By then, stimulus had become a four-letter word, and any further action to boost growth had to come from the Federal Reserve Board rather than Congress or the president."

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Some very odd conclusions/estimates/reasoning in this article - posted to stimulate discussion.