2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"CNN Poll: Obama 49% - Romney 47% among likely voters" at CNN Political Ticker
CNN Poll: Obama 49% - Romney 47% among likely votersby Paul Steinhouser at CNN Political Ticker
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/24/cnn-poll-obama-49-romney-47-among-likely-voters/?hpt=hp_t2
"SNIP.........................................
According to the poll, 49% of likely voters say they're backing Obama, with 47% supporting Romney. The two point margin is within the survey's sampling error, meaning the race is a statistical tie.
Among the larger pool of registered voters, some of whom will stay at home on Election Day, the survey indicates the president holds a 52%-43% lead. That number is little changed from CNN's previous poll, conducted in early August, before Romney named House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan as his running mate.
"Likely voters have traditionally been a more Republican group in past elections because they tend to turn out in higher numbers than Democrats, and 2012 looks like it is no exception. This explains why the margin between President Obama and Mitt Romney is smaller among likely voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But it is a mistake to say that the race has tightened in the past few weeks, given the lack of movement in the results for registered voters."
In an election, it all comes down to turnout, and that's what a likely voter model is all about. The more enthusiastic you are about voting, the likelier you are to actually vote in November. According to the poll, 35% of registered Republicans questioned say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting, six points higher than the 29% of Democrats who feel the same way.
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liberal N proud
(60,346 posts)They always do this nationwide popular vote concept in their poll results. They purposely neglect that it is 50 seperate elections.
Look at the electoral outlook, not the national popular vote.
But they do this false results to keep the race close, to keep viewers and to hide an election theft.
Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)Or how about the fact that it is really 52-43 Obama, but their "likely" voter model has it close
liberal N proud
(60,346 posts)National popular "likely" voter means squat except to keep the audiance and make it look acceptable when an election is stolen.
The President is elected by electoral vote.
crimson77
(305 posts)This race is far closer than I think people want to admit. I give my run down as I see it. Romney has 191 already in the bag according to RCP. 191+ FL,NC,VA,IA,WISC,CO gets him to 273. Not out of the realm of possiblity, not by a long shot. He doesn't need OH or Mich. If you want to have fun you can even at Nevada and Oregon to potential up in the air states.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)Now it is possible to steal it and with a dead heat in the polls who can question it?
And if that is the plan then it explains why Rmoney and Ryan seem so unconcerned about getting caught in the lies.
lunasun
(21,646 posts)ilikeitthatway
(143 posts)A bad economy helps to brainwash the masses. They're angry, and vulnerable. 40% for Romney does not surprise me.
Evergreen Emerald
(13,070 posts)How could 47% of the population be in favor of Romney? It is unbelievable.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)We live in a 2-party system. When you only have 2 parties, they are both guaranteed to get large chunks of the vote, even when they have a bad candidate or their Party is unpopular.
46% of people voted for McCain in 2008 despite 8 disastrous years of Bush and despite the fact that there was an unqualified V.P. on the ticket.
Kteachums
(331 posts)It is hard to believe that people see what Romney is and decide to vote for him. I have heard people say how pretty his wife is and how difficult her struggle has been. We don't counter these claims by showing ordinary Americans being treated with the same illnesses and no money. There is a difference.
People get tired of hearing the same old news, same old trends on the economy and are once again looking for some miracle of change. They don't remember where the mess lead us the last time. To be truthful, how can the middle class help the Prez.? We have no money to keep up with the Uglicans and their donations. They are buying beliefs, votes, etc. They were able to produce a propoganda film and get away with it. They are everywhere spending. It would be nice if they really lost after they spent all of their funds. I wonder how much they have donated to needy voters?
budkin
(6,716 posts)Once the turnout machine gets going it's going to be a lot wider than that.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)A friend of mine watched State of the Union with Candy Crowley (who I suspect is a Republican) this morning and said Obama was ahead in most of the battleground states, but that Romney was tied in a couple of them.
Anyone else know what they said on CNN about this poll this morning?