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Nate Silver: Romney’s Momentum Fades Slightly Heading Into Conventions
UPDATE FROM NATE SILVER:
Romney’s Momentum Fades Slightly Heading Into Conventions
Over all, with a set of reasonably favorable state polls on Thursday through Saturday after some poor ones earlier last week, Mr. Obama has rebounded a bit in our Electoral College forecast. The model now gives him a 69.3 percent chance of winning it, up from 66.7 percent on Wednesday. There’s also been a tiny shift back toward Mr. Obama in the national tracking polls, with Gallup now showing the race tied, and Rasmussen Reports putting Mr. Obama one point ahead as of Saturday.
It’s hard to tell whether there was a vice presidential ‘bounce’ for Mr. Romney that has since reversed itself — or whether this is all just a bunch of statistical noise. In this case, it may be something of a moot point, since the party conventions are likely to reset the momentum in one direction or another anyway.
Over all, with a set of reasonably favorable state polls on Thursday through Saturday after some poor ones earlier last week, Mr. Obama has rebounded a bit in our Electoral College forecast. The model now gives him a 69.3 percent chance of winning it, up from 66.7 percent on Wednesday. There’s also been a tiny shift back toward Mr. Obama in the national tracking polls, with Gallup now showing the race tied, and Rasmussen Reports putting Mr. Obama one point ahead as of Saturday.
It’s hard to tell whether there was a vice presidential ‘bounce’ for Mr. Romney that has since reversed itself — or whether this is all just a bunch of statistical noise. In this case, it may be something of a moot point, since the party conventions are likely to reset the momentum in one direction or another anyway.
More here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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