2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumColumbus Dispatch Poll claims everything is Tied in OHIO
It claims that Obama & Romney are tied and that Brown & Mandel are tied.
I can't find any other polls by this pollster for Ohio this year. These numbers seem at odds with other Ohio polls showing Obama & Brown ahead.
Anyone familiar with the Columbus Dispatch's track record? Is it a trustworthy pollster?
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/08/26/tight-races-put-undecided-voters-in-control.html
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Dispatch Poll of 1,758 Ohioans, conducted Aug. 15-25:
President
Barack Obama - 45%
Mitt Romney - 45%
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U.S. Senate
Sherrod Brown - 44%
Josh Mandel - 44%
unblock
(52,286 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)I can't find any other polls by this pollster when I scroll down the dozens of Ohio polls here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio finds the presidential race a dead heat with President Obama and Mitt Romney each at 45%.
Caveat: The poll is a mail-in survey.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/26/ohio_is_a_dead_heat.html
This is the first survey of Ohio I've seen in a while that didn't give Obama at least a small lead. If it's mail-in, you have to wonder how many people students, working people, etc, took the time to mail it in? It's like the Literary Digest Poll of 1936 that showed Landon beating FDR--only people with phones were surveyed and a lot of people didn't have phones in 1936.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)As Nate Silver said recently, Obama has had a pretty good record of polls in Ohio this year. There haven't been many that show a Romney lead or even a Tie.
I think Nate currently gives Obama a 69% chance of winning Ohio.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)This doesn't exist.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It seems this poll wasn't a random sample since it was a mail-in survey.
So I assume Nate Silver will give it less weight in his Ohio calculations this week.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)You're kidding right?
That's how the Literary Digest embarrassed themselves in 1936.
Ashleyshubby
(81 posts)...in their last pre-election poll that year, 1 week or 2 weeks before the elections.
The final margin was 4.6. Not bad. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html#polls