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TroyD

(4,551 posts)
Sun Aug 26, 2012, 04:14 PM Aug 2012

Columbus Dispatch Poll claims everything is Tied in OHIO

It claims that Obama & Romney are tied and that Brown & Mandel are tied.

I can't find any other polls by this pollster for Ohio this year. These numbers seem at odds with other Ohio polls showing Obama & Brown ahead.

Anyone familiar with the Columbus Dispatch's track record? Is it a trustworthy pollster?

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/08/26/tight-races-put-undecided-voters-in-control.html

--------------

Dispatch Poll of 1,758 Ohioans, conducted Aug. 15-25:

President

Barack Obama - 45%

Mitt Romney - 45%

-----

U.S. Senate

Sherrod Brown - 44%

Josh Mandel - 44%

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Columbus Dispatch Poll claims everything is Tied in OHIO (Original Post) TroyD Aug 2012 OP
i grew up in columbus and i can assure you that the dispatch makes good pet paper. unblock Aug 2012 #1
Seems to be their first Poll of the year TroyD Aug 2012 #2
It's a mail-in survey WI_DEM Aug 2012 #3
Thanks for the info TroyD Aug 2012 #4
Thanks, but I'm going to stick with Quinnipiac's poll showing Obama up 6 bluestateguy Aug 2012 #5
I agree : ) TroyD Aug 2012 #6
A mail-in survey? bluestateguy Aug 2012 #7
This mail-in survey predicted an Obama win by 6 in '08 Ashleyshubby Aug 2012 #8

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
3. It's a mail-in survey
Sun Aug 26, 2012, 04:29 PM
Aug 2012

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio finds the presidential race a dead heat with President Obama and Mitt Romney each at 45%.

Caveat: The poll is a mail-in survey.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/26/ohio_is_a_dead_heat.html

This is the first survey of Ohio I've seen in a while that didn't give Obama at least a small lead. If it's mail-in, you have to wonder how many people students, working people, etc, took the time to mail it in? It's like the Literary Digest Poll of 1936 that showed Landon beating FDR--only people with phones were surveyed and a lot of people didn't have phones in 1936.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
4. Thanks for the info
Sun Aug 26, 2012, 04:32 PM
Aug 2012

As Nate Silver said recently, Obama has had a pretty good record of polls in Ohio this year. There haven't been many that show a Romney lead or even a Tie.

I think Nate currently gives Obama a 69% chance of winning Ohio.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
6. I agree : )
Sun Aug 26, 2012, 05:40 PM
Aug 2012

It seems this poll wasn't a random sample since it was a mail-in survey.

So I assume Nate Silver will give it less weight in his Ohio calculations this week.

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
7. A mail-in survey?
Sun Aug 26, 2012, 05:48 PM
Aug 2012

You're kidding right?

That's how the Literary Digest embarrassed themselves in 1936.

 

Ashleyshubby

(81 posts)
8. This mail-in survey predicted an Obama win by 6 in '08
Sun Aug 26, 2012, 08:35 PM
Aug 2012

...in their last pre-election poll that year, 1 week or 2 weeks before the elections.

The final margin was 4.6. Not bad. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html#polls

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