2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP Poll Has Hillary Easily Winning 2nd Dem Debate. And This is a Real Poll. Not an Internet Poll.
A Public Policy Polling survey of Democratic primary voters nationally who watched tonights debate finds that it reinforced Hillary Clintons front runner status. Viewers overwhelmingly think she won the debate, and particularly trust her over the rest of the Democratic field when it comes to issues of national security.
Key findings from the survey include:
-67% of voters think Clinton won the debate, to 20% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin OMalley. On a related note 63% of viewers said the debate gave them a more positive opinion of Clinton, compared to 41% who said it gave them a more positive opinion of Sanders, and 37% who said it gave them a more positive opinion of OMalley.
-Clinton is by a wide margin the candidate debate watchers trust the most on national security issues. 75% say they have the most faith in Clinton on that front, compared to only 17% for Sanders, and 5% for OMalley. National security issues were a primary focus tonight in the aftermath of yesterdays tragedy in France, and Democratic voters by far and away trust Clinton the most on that issue.
-Whats particularly striking is how universal the sentiment that Clinton won the debate tonight is among all the different groups within the Democratic Party. 86% of African Americans, 73% of women, 70% of moderates, 69% of seniors, 67% of Hispanics, 65% of liberals, 61% of white voters, 58% of men, and 50% of younger voters all think that Clinton was the winner of tonights debate.
-Overall among those who watched the debate tonight, 67% say they plan to vote for Clinton in the primary to 25% for Sanders, and 4% for OMalley.
Clinton came into tonights debate as the clear front runner for the Democrats and these numbers make it clear that the debate and particularly Clintons strength on national security issues just reinforced her front runner status.
PPP interviewed 510 Democratic primary voters nationally by telephone after the debate who had been pre-screened on Thursday and Friday as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward. The surveys margin of error is +/-4.3%. This research was conducted on behalf of Correct The Record.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)because we paid for it. That makes it professional.
Have a great night.
The best money can buy!!
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Weidman
(71 posts)Sponsored by Correct the Record. Therefore, a pro-Clinton poll. Suspect candidate rotation, handpicked poll, methodology all wrong.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)David Brock can't hide from this. We will just hit back every time you try and use these useless polls. If it wasn't so completely out of whack, maybe some normal people would believe it. I doubt it tho.
Weidman
(71 posts)and Bernie raised another 4-5 million from this fake poll?
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,019 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)It hard to imagine PPP would risk their credibility by purposely falsifying data to please one client.
think
(11,641 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)It's confirmation bias, the poll tells them what they want to hear.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)PPP showed twice the lead for Hillary as CBS. That is not 'pretty much verified' that's shown to be bogus and bought.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If you want an explanation for the difference I suspect it was due to the CBS poll including Independents whereas the PPP poll did not.
The point is Bernie lost and lost big.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Had the entire result been 'she won, Bernie second, Martin third' then it would be confirming their results, but PPP had numbers which were very different from CBS's.
So yeah, she won the polling but that does not confirm the PPP results. They were bullshit.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its always generalizations and trends that we look at to confirm results. Clearly these two polls show big wins for Hillary. That's good enough for me.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Hepburn
(21,054 posts)This is a poll which is from a Clinton Super Pac and the respondents were pre-selected because they were Clinton supporters.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Absolutely no evidence that they were Hillary supporters.
Hepburn
(21,054 posts)...and they over-whelming thought she won. She bombed...big time.
hack89
(39,171 posts)You are not helping Bernie by spreading such nonsense.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)get around that no matter how you spin it.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Can you show that PPP risked their professional reputation by skewing the results? That is the question- time to present something more than unsubstantiated accusations. Have any real facts?
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)pro who used to work for republicans. Look it up
hack89
(39,171 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Where's the evidence that it's rigged?
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Also, 100% of their sample watched the debate. Absolutely no one had something come up?
Finally, you'll note they did not describe how they obtained a random sample. So either PPP has suddenly forgotten how to publish a report on polling, or they did not have a random sample.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/DemocraticPostDebatePoll111415.pdf
jeff47
(26,549 posts)is we have no idea what actually was in the prescreening.
You'll also note they didn't get a random sample...
demwing
(16,916 posts)Google Consumer Surveys was the 2nd most accurate pollsters of the 2014 election, according to Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0
<snip>
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)This is someone's opinion on a discussion board.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)I could care less about polls regarding debates but it just seems hypocritical that the same people who crapped all over Bernie supporters for linking to "unscientific" polls would want to be consistent.
Proceed.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)What did I miss?
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Just in denial about her fav candidate losing the debate.
The PPP poll was pretty much verified by the CBS poll which also had Hillary up big.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)They seem to know what they're talking about while you don't even know what gender I am.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect he might change his opinion.
Sorry for misgendering you! Corrected.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Like I said, I don't care which you prefer but this one was paid for by a super PAC.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Which leads me to think they are both correct.. in that Hillary won the debate.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)1) The report doesn't say how they got a random sample. Which means they didn't get one. The alternative is PPP suddenly forgot how to publish a poling report, which is just a wee bit unlikely.
2) They didn't publish the prescreening questions. So we have no idea what the prescreening actually entailed.
3) 100% of their sample watched the debate. Absolutely no one had something come up? This reinforces the problems with #1 and #2.
4) Shitty methodology: When you list candidates in a question, you're supposed to rotate the names. There's a bias for the first name listed, so you rotate to remove that bias.
5) Sponsored polls allow the sponsor to create the methodology. So Correct the Record decided how to run this poll, not PPP.
6) It's a 100% landline poll.
All of this is in PPP's own report, if you actually read beyond the summary.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)beyond what someone says on the internet. But thanks for giving it the ol' college try!
jeff47
(26,549 posts)What evidence do you need beyond them admitting to it?
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Seriously, you could just reply with "LALALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!" and make as much sense.
Show me where they actually got a random sample.
Show me the prescreening questions and the answers they got to those questions
Show me Correct the Record didn't pay for it.
I understand you are very fond of the results. But that doesn't make a sponsored poll accurate.
While you're at it, you better go tell this Clinton supporter and statistician that he's also full of shit for saying the poll is bad: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251810541
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)Well he's fading fast sorry reality check is coming soon.
He looked out of his eliment on the debate stage. Just repeating his talking points with minimal follow up tunes people out.
Just my humble option
jeff47
(26,549 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)But I am guessing you know that and that's why you chose their side. But some how, the People will prevail.
jfern
(5,204 posts)d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)"The same percentage of people who think Hillary won the debate plan on voting for her? Yeah that sounds wrong."
"I clicked your poll itself- this is very telling. "PPP interviewed 510 Democratic primary voters nationally by telephone after the debate
who had been pre-screened on Thursday and Friday as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward. The surveys margin of error is +/-4.3%. This research was conducted on behalf of Correct The Record. "
"Were these people watching the same debate?"
"Jim Daniels, you are correct that online polls are not scientific polls. But if you think people are voting multiple times in the online polls, maybe you don't know much about online polling, because the polls only let each IP address vote once, and very few people are going to mess around with proxy servers just to try to skew the results. I also wonder whether you meant the MLB All-Star Game voting rather than the Hall of Fame. Also, when a poll is carried out "on behalf of", i.e. paid for by, a Clinton SuperPAC, that doesn't seem like a legitimate cause for suspicion to you?"
peacebird
(14,195 posts)PPP interviewed 510 Democratic primary voters nationally by telephone after the debate who had been pre-screened on Thursday and Friday as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward. The surveys margin of error is +/-4.3%. This research was conducted on behalf of Correct The Record.
coyote
(1,561 posts)Question 1: Are you a Hillary supporter?
Question 2|: if yes, would you like to participate in our poll? if not, goodbye.