2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCritical New Hampshire State Poll- Clinton 48% Sanders 44%
http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/151101_topline_NH_FINAL.pdf
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)brooklynite
(94,740 posts)...the most charitable interpretation for Sanders is that it's gone from him leading to a tie.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)I'd always thought that NJ was a "gimme" for Bernie. But if he's struggling THERE, he'll struggle EVERYWHERE.
BootinUp
(47,194 posts)where she is ahead. There was a lot of movement going on in October so I think the later polls will definitely paint a better picture.
riversedge
(70,306 posts)Hillary for NH Retweeted
Mike Vlacich ?@mvlacich Nov 21
Canvassing Manchester for @HillaryforNH. #dayofaction
riversedge
(70,306 posts)Coming to you live from @HillaryforNH's newest office in #Laconia! An amazing new home for our team here in Belknap!
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NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)While also ticking up nationally. Great news.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)In fact it probably is. That's good for Dems because we're in for a battle royale no matter who gets nominated and the sooner the primary skirmishes end the better.
SunSeeker
(51,724 posts)redwitch
(14,947 posts)I don't know how surveys choose which respondents to include in their sampling but doesn't that seem unbalanced?
The devil is ALWAYS in the details.
And so many of her "winning" polls are lame...missing all sorts of segments of voters.
HubertHeaver
(2,522 posts)riversedge
(70,306 posts)Hillary for NH Retweeted
Becky ?@beckyford23 23h23 hours ago
#hillaryfornh #dayofaction
dsc
(52,166 posts)I get them having about 17.2 percent of the population in that age range. Given that age and rate of voting are highly positively correlated that is likely to be, if anything, an overestimate.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Stuart G
(38,448 posts)That leaves all of December, all of January, 8 days in February, and 9 days in November..
No matter who you are for...lots can happen during that time..
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Things will definitely heat up in January... but by then it will probably be too late for Bernie.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)EOM
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They don't have much else.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)sheshe2
(83,925 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)If toast is leading in forty nine out of fifty states I'm Brad Pitt
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)The poll aggregation of Real Clear Politics excludes your poll which used a mixed on-line/phone methodology to poll only 190 Democrats (versus 228 Republicans) as conducted by Morning Consult for the pharmaceutical industry's Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing.
There is not a huge difference between the older poll you post and the more recent poll confirming Clinton at only 44%, just below Sanders but within the margin of error; that's not my point.
But given that this poll was released Monday and it included only 190 Democrats and it is not sufficiently reliable to meet the Real Clear Politics reliability threshold, why do you call it critical?
I certainly agree that a New Hampshire poll is more significant than, say, a national poll or a South Carolina poll or a Texas poll, etc., but this poll you tout seems to fall on the not-so-critical end of the spectrum.
Don't you agree at least a little?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)I agree that in all cases we should look at aggregate polling and not cherry picked polls, as the latter method is fraught with bias.
Aggregate polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus
suggests he is trailing in the one state on which is entire campaign hinges...If he loses IA and NH it is effectively over even if he refuses to give up the ghost at that time.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)I agree Sanders is the underdog in the primary and if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, then I cannot see a path for him to win the nomination.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)You are excluding scientific online polls with rigorous controls and weighting that are specifically designed to mirror traditional polls. You are also excluding ivr polls... You are including cell phone/landline polls that might or might not be flawed...
The bottom line is if you believe you can get the correct results by discarding polls you don't like there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)He may even win it.
riversedge
(70,306 posts)Hillary for NH Retweeted
Joan Jacobs ?@jsjsjacobs Nov 21
Hillary supporter Portsmouth HQ canvass. #DayOfAction @HillaryforNH
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Would be a crushing blow to the berners.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)GeorgeGist
(25,323 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)MineralMan
(146,333 posts)If we keep watching though, a trend might become visible. That's what I'll be doing - watching.
riversedge
(70,306 posts)Glad she has lots of help in NH
Hillary for NH Retweeted
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