2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama vulnerable in Florida
According to a Quinnipiac poll, Obama loses to Romney by 3 points, (46-43), and barely beats Rick Santorum, (45-43). also, Obama has an approval rating of only 42%. He's got a lot of work to do to get Floridians to vote for him this time around.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1689
onehandle
(51,122 posts)The Obama team needs to look elsewhere for an electoral win.
montanacowboy
(6,089 posts)being one heartbeat away from the presidency?
onehandle
(51,122 posts)So my guess is that they could imagine the same for him.
UrbScotty
(23,980 posts)montanacowboy
(6,089 posts)living in the sunshine state how they feel about Romney's just lovin Paul Ryan's scheme to take their SS?
How dumb can people get?
Response to montanacowboy (Reply #2)
Tesha This message was self-deleted by its author.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)or are you disparaging seniors in general?
montanacowboy
(6,089 posts)and once they find out Romney loves Ryan that should take care of that.
denem
(11,045 posts)given the way the GOP candidates are hacking each other to bits.
The first real indication might come after the circular firing squad attack ads have been airing for a week.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)emulatorloo
(44,124 posts)I can't find that figure.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)but it's not over yet. The campaign hasn't even begun.
motely36
(6,299 posts)We just moved here in Aug.
Also, voting for Grayson!
SaintPete
(533 posts)Here are the demographics:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/fl/fl01102012_demos.doc
You'll see that the poll claims it has a MoE of +/- 2.6%, with 1412 voters surveyed.
But dig deeper and you'll find some weird figures...
Republican: 32% / 498
Democrat: 29% / 376
Independent: 32% / 450
Other/DK/NA 8% / 88
According to the above, the poll included 32% Republicans, and only 29% Democrats - but when we actually do they math ourselves, the numbers look very different. (489/1412 = 35% Repubs, 376/1412 = 26% Dems). A partisan split of 35 has tripled into a partisan split of 9%. No wonder the republicans are doing better in this poll. The pollster writes it off as "weighted" results, but never explains how the results were weighted, so there's no way to verify if the weighting process is rational.
White (non-hisp): 71% / 1162
Black (non-hisp): 12% / 105
Hispanic (all races): 13% / 99
Other/DK/NA: 4% / 46
Same problem here...the same weighting process is applied, so the numbers given appear more representative of the population than they actually are--
1162 Whites polled is NOT 71% (1162 / 1412 = 82%)
105 Blacks is not 12%, it's 7.4%
99 Hispanics polled is not 13%, it's 7.0%
Funny... the weighted statistics for the poll look as if they were contrived so as to match true voter demographics. Why is the process for weighted statistics not given? why are white and Republicans so heavily favored in this poll?
FarLeftFist
(6,161 posts)ge626dfil
(51 posts)1stlady
(122 posts)Obama won FL due to the heavy turn out of minorities. He can win Fl again if he gets the same turn out with minorities. There is no way FL should be taken off the list, its ripe with minorities young and older. The only reason John Kerry lost FL, was because he scratched it off the list. He didn't campaign hard enough for the minority and jewish vote like Obama did. Florida, is very win-able for democrats, trust me I live in Jacksonville, FL. In the county of Duval, which was thought of as a very conservative part of FL, McCain only won duval county by 1%. That shocked everyone here, considering how red Duval country has been over the years. So trust me, FL can definitely be won again by Obama!!
UrbScotty
(23,980 posts)States won by both Kerry and Gore now equal 242 electoral votes following reapportionment.
Add in Florida's 29 votes, and that brings Obama up to 271.
So if Obama wins all the states Kerry and Gore won (which O himself also won in 2008), plus Florida, he's in for another term.
That doesn't include Ohio (18 EVs), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Indiana (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4), all of which Bush won at least once but Obama won in 2008. Nor does it include Arizona (11) and Missouri (10), which went to McCain by small margins and could go to Obama this time. They could easily make up for a loss in Florida.
And as was mentioned above the thread, polls are all but meaningless this far out.