2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNewt to hold press conference tonight at 11pm (ET)
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/04/gingrich_will_hold_press_conference_tonight.htmlbabylonsister
(171,102 posts)read about it tomorrow.
JHB
(37,163 posts)Someone wants to limit his profile in the news cycle.
I'm betting it's NOT to say "Go Patriots!"
hlthe2b
(102,419 posts)C_U_L8R
(45,025 posts)Willard is making Newt a very wealthy man. Tiffanys will be thrilled.
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)The Owners got to him & want him to quit viciously telling the truth about Romney.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)I can only see one of those scenarios needing a press conference.
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)I'm betting that the Salamander got one of those offers he can't refuse from the Powers.
Boombaby
(139 posts)I'll betcha $10,000 he doesn't quit tonight.
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)C_U_L8R
(45,025 posts)Newt: mitt you can spend $100 million defending yourself against my attacks from here to the convention... Or you can just give me $100 million and keep your reputation intact
JHB
(37,163 posts)Mitt's lawyers got him down to 70M and a Pentagon gig so he can help plan invading Iran.
2pooped2pop
(5,420 posts)when his news conference is over and Saturday Night Live starts?
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)sofa king
(10,857 posts)And he's killing it!
sofa king
(10,857 posts)The Newt has to do a little squirming to avoid getting implicated in the forged-signatures scandal emerging in Virginia.
So he's gonna pin it on the guy who forged most of the signatures, pretend to wash his hands of the whole thing, and back Ron Paul against Romney in Virginia since he won't get any delegates of his own from there.
(Edit: I might as well explain my guess. Gingrich, certainly the most "Nixonian" of the candidates, well remembers the Saturday Night Massacre and will be running a different type of operation off the same platform, if you will.
I think the timing is delightfully anachronistic, too: the 11pm press conference was specifically designed to miss the Sunday print edition newspapers. Remember those, kids? I think that futurist Newt Gingrich is going to quickly learn that in this age of press-less print and unending media coverage, the only ones who will miss it are the ones who miss everything else, too.)
sofa king
(10,857 posts)Just noting for the record that I am proven totally full of &^$%!
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)What else does he have left to say, except good-bye!
Nevada hates Noot.
They have legalized prostitution in some counties in Nevada, so they don't go for this "open marriage" jazz at all.
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)He hates Romney *that* much.
former9thward
(32,097 posts)Most states have 'sore loser' election laws which prevent that. If you run in the primaries for an office you can't run for that same office in a third party.
LiberalFighter
(51,170 posts)former9thward
(32,097 posts)The states have the right to determine who can appear on their ballot even though it is a federal election. This also prevents Ron Paul from running as some have speculated. Although Paul would never do that anyway because it would put his son the Senator in a bind. His son would either have to support his father or support his party. Either would cause political problems.
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)Most states with "sore loser" laws explicitly exempt the presidency. Four states (Texas, Ohio, Mississippi and South Dakota) currently claim it does apply to the presidency but nobody has ever had the standing to challenge them. (In pennsylvania state officials have not clarified that it does or does not.)
It wouldn't last long in court.
Thoguh states control ballot access within reason they cannot impose a new qualification on a constitutional office.
Meaing that they are allowed to demand that Paul (for example) pay the same fees, provide the same signatures, whatever, they cannot define eligibility to seek the presidency.
ie "35 years old, natural-born US citizen who has not lost a major party primary in the year he seeks office"
John Anderson competed in most republican primaries in 1980. I think Wallace started out as a Dem in 1968.
HipChick
(25,485 posts)Time for #4?
jillan
(39,451 posts)FSogol
(45,554 posts)yellowcanine
(35,702 posts)HopeHoops
(47,675 posts)yellowcanine
(35,702 posts)Alexander
(15,318 posts)He might endorse one of the other candidates but I kind of doubt it.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)I think he is holding a press conference at 8 pm PT to distract from what will be a lopsided loss for him. The strategy is a way to divert attention. He will probably come armed with some new Newt-style proposals, ridiculous and grandiose.
He is narrowly leading in the polls in OH, and well ahead in MN. If he really wants a chance or if he really wants to embarrass Romney, he would stay in at least until Super Tuesday.
I just don't see him ready to throw in the towel yet, he is looking for media attention of any kind, when the story of the night would otherwise be Romney's clear win in Nevada.
Alexander
(15,318 posts)I wasn't aware he was leading in those two states.
Thanks in advance.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)MN and others coming up in Feb. (Newt is also leading CO +19):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/february_gop_caucuses_primaries.html
I was looking at 538 for OH (very narrow there):
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/ohio
He also is looking strong in OK and of course GA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_super_tuesday.html
I think he just has too much to gain by staying, with nothing to lose, but someone else's money.
Alexander
(15,318 posts)The only Minnesota poll on RCP was taken two weeks ago, right after Gingrich won South Carolina. Florida polls around that time were saying the same thing - and we know how that went.
The Colorado poll you mentioned was taken at the beginning of December, two months ago. Oklahoma was also done almost two months ago.
Ohio looks like it's a legitimate toss-up. It actually looks like a three-way toss-up. Both fivethirtyeight and RCP show Santorum running a very close 3rd, assuming he stays in the race that long.
I'll grant you, it looks like Ohio is up in the air. But the rest of those polls look to be obsolete, and Gingrich's momentum has definitely stalled in the past week.
He might want to stay in, but the way I'm seeing this race, the longer the Republican primaries go on, the more damaged the nominee will be, and the less chance he'll have of potentially defeating Obama.
It's entirely possible that the Republican power brokers will entice Gingrich with a Cabinet position or ambassadorship or something if he drops out, and that he would be persona non grata if he damages Romney to the point where Romney has no chance to win.
You are correct in that he is using other people's money - namely Sheldon Adelson's - however there's an article that just came out saying Adelson is going to cough up millions to various right-wing candidates and causes this year, yet no word that he's going to throw any more cash at the pro-Gingrich super PAC. Given that Adelson is a casino magnate, he might know a losing bet when he sees one.
I guess we'll know the answer tonight.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)It does seem his momentum peaked and he has been falling since just before FL voted. The volatility of the polling the primary has been remarkable. If the internal polling in each of those upcoming states reflects a similar peak in Newt's rise, he may well step aside. I am just not convinced he is ready to, yet.
Indeed, we'll know tonight.
rainbow4321
(9,974 posts)Let's see, 8pm EST is only 5pm Vegas time meaning caucus stuff will still be going on, is that right?
He must want to give his post-caucus delusional "on to another state" speech early so his freaky supporters can get to bed early.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)whistler162
(11,155 posts)Howard Hughes!