2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton Is Not 'Inevitable.' She's Just the 'Most Probable.'
Right now, her probability of being the nominee is 94%. Her probability of becoming president is 58%.
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president
That's not inevitability. It's probability. And those numbers just keep going up as we get closer to the first primary election.
Nobody's actually "inevitable." Anything could happen, but the probability numbers make it look increasingly unlikely that she'll do anything but win.
I know that I, for one, have never said she was "inevitable." I wouldn't do that, but I sure like her odds.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I don't get why we have threads like the inevitability thread. It's just another put down.
Hey Bernie supporters instead of that shit, tell me how Bernie gets from here to
Single payer
Free college tuition
$15 per hour
Paid family leave
Increased Social Security benefits
etc., etc.
Fifteen dollars per hour less additional $3 dollars withheld = $12 per hour.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)I know that's disappointing for many people, but the polls seem to have stabilized, and I'm not seeing a path that leads to a Sanders win. Not seeing it at all.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)He has made up significant ground in some vitally important areas in the last month, but Hillary's post first debate/Benghazi jump muddied the waters. Go look at his increases amongst women voters, AA voters and voters under 50 and then you'll see exactly why Sanders supporters are still confident.
The real game begins after xmas, and if his momentum keeps building until then it becomes a very different race.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)been for some time. I'll keep looking, I assure you.
Your post contains no data or links. It looks more like a hopeful opinion than information to me. If you'd like to add some actual data or links, I'll go look at those, too.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)You are referring to one poll...
Other polls don't show those gains, ergo:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary
HRC 's share of the Democratic vote hasn't really moved in three years. That's pretty remarkable...
And the margins of errors for sub samples of polls with three or four hundred respondents are huge.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Sure sounds good while it's being rolled out there, though, dunnit?
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)I don't know. Looking at current polling aggregates, their prediction look supportable to me.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)I don't believe or disbelieve the polls either.
Bernie has a unique group supporting him, and polls won't catch his support
if they misread the number of people in that group who will actually vote for him.
I will monitor predictwise during the primary season....especially during Iowa and NH.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)BootinUp
(47,165 posts)There have been times when I didn't word it as carefully, but all I have ever tried to communicate about the race was that in my opinion that barring anything unusual happening she appeared to have the nomination in hand. I came to that opinion shortly after Biden announced he would not be running and seeing polling trends strongly in her favor.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)That's why we see her working hard, campaigning, day after day.
She's not taking anything for granted.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)femmedem
(8,203 posts)I'm a Bernie supporter and recognize the odds--although I do see some good trends--but plan on continuing to advocate for him as long as his odds aren't zero.
I'm sure Hillary's supporters would do the same for their candidate.
So long as we aren't hateful towards one another, nothing wrong with that.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)I am liking those odds.
Would that be called a sure thing in Vegas?