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bravenak

(34,648 posts)
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:52 AM Nov 2015

Superdelegate 101: Bernie Has Only an 11 Percent Chance of Winning


It doesn’t matter how many Democrats “feel the Bern” — despite the tens of thousands of young people filling sports arenas all over the country because they’re excited about the socialist senator from Vermont’s message that it’s time for a “political revolution” that prioritizes working people and takes back the wealth getting sucked out of the economy by the “billionaire class.”

superdelegate

Blame it on the superdelegates. “Superdelegates are convention delegates who can support any candidate, no matter whom voters choose in the primaries and caucuses. They are members of Congress and other elected officials, party leaders and members of the Democratic National Committee,” explains the Associated Press.

“Hillary Rodham Clinton has locked up public support from half of the Democratic insiders who will cast ballots at the party’s national convention, giving her a big head start in securing the nomination more than two months before primary voters start going to the polls.” The 712 superdelegates make up about 30 percent of the 2,382 delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.

Of the 80 percent of superdelegates willing to fess up their affiliation, 359 support Clinton. Eight plan to vote for Bernie Sanders and two for Martin O’Malley, the former Maryland governor who made a splash at Saturday’s Democratic debate. Exactly 210 of them say they’re uncommitted.”






http://anewdomain.net/2015/11/17/superdelegate-101-bernie-11-chance-winning-nomination/
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Superdelegate 101: Bernie Has Only an 11 Percent Chance of Winning (Original Post) bravenak Nov 2015 OP
"Nothing is inevitable, . . . snot Nov 2015 #1
. bravenak Nov 2015 #2
"Hillary has the Superdelegates!!" was a key 2008 PR talking point... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #56
"Your votes don't matter. Settle for what you are given!" Scootaloo Nov 2015 #3
You knew this was how this worked bravenak Nov 2015 #8
Oh yes, I had it "explained" to me quite often back in 2008 Scootaloo Nov 2015 #17
I have no idea what you expect to change within the next few months. Realistically. bravenak Nov 2015 #18
I'm certain you don't. Scootaloo Nov 2015 #21
That still give nothing that improves his chances. Nobody says where these votes will come from. bravenak Nov 2015 #22
One presumes they will come from people. Scootaloo Nov 2015 #23
Which people? You know. It doesn't matter. bravenak Nov 2015 #24
of course it's speculation. All of it is speculation. Mine, and yours, and everyone else's. Scootaloo Nov 2015 #25
Good idea. bravenak Nov 2015 #26
steal the black vote?? karynnj Nov 2015 #42
Umm hmm. bravenak Nov 2015 #50
damn shame Hillary can't win the general AtomicKitten Nov 2015 #4
Well, go here bravenak Nov 2015 #5
go here AtomicKitten Nov 2015 #9
Are they hiring? I Might want a part time job, lol. bravenak Nov 2015 #10
issues matter, not cult of personality AtomicKitten Nov 2015 #11
My issue is I need some bootstraps not promises or welfare bravenak Nov 2015 #12
I prefer integrity, honesty &, ethical standards of which Hillary has none. AtomicKitten Nov 2015 #49
I prefer not to be called names by my peers. bravenak Nov 2015 #55
Bernie is cult of personality politics, he has no policy. JaneyVee Nov 2015 #37
+1 NurseJackie Nov 2015 #39
You're confused. Jon Stewart explains that. AtomicKitten Nov 2015 #48
This tantamoūnt to buying an election. The party and it rules and ability to circumvent the will of CentralMass Nov 2015 #6
But this is the process. We knew this all along bravenak Nov 2015 #7
"We" all expect a fair process where our vote is tallied for the candidate that we cast it for. CentralMass Nov 2015 #13
I am fine with the process for this election. bravenak Nov 2015 #14
Though I think īt will work itself out, if ends up being a situation where one canddate has CentralMass Nov 2015 #15
Her delegates have been reported on in real time as they commit. bravenak Nov 2015 #16
Months before even one primary vote has been cast. This is the party, power, and IMO the CentralMass Nov 2015 #19
Sorry this bothers you. bravenak Nov 2015 #20
there is no real thing called the popular vote in the primaries karynnj Nov 2015 #46
however, Kerry said that he would not vote against the winner karynnj Nov 2015 #45
You can only dream of it, Bravenak. darkangel218 Nov 2015 #27
Sorry, it's the real world leftofcool Nov 2015 #34
Doesn't count; That's only in the real world. n/t Lil Missy Nov 2015 #28
Not a twitter poll. They matter. bravenak Nov 2015 #30
I stand corrected!! Lil Missy Nov 2015 #32
You're right. Fuck democracy. Fearless Nov 2015 #29
You knew this. bravenak Nov 2015 #31
. Fearless Nov 2015 #59
Ok.nt bravenak Nov 2015 #60
So he is now at 11 %. Wasn't he in single digits last time we checked? eom Betty Karlson Nov 2015 #33
Four months ago he was bravenak Nov 2015 #35
too many people are getting hot and bothered about the supers. after such a contentious primary, restorefreedom Nov 2015 #36
Ok.nt bravenak Nov 2015 #41
you said that bernie and hillary are both to your right, restorefreedom Nov 2015 #43
That might just make it even worse. bravenak Nov 2015 #51
I don't think the super delegates will change the election of Sanders wins the most delegates tammywammy Nov 2015 #38
Of course not. Bad idea.nt bravenak Nov 2015 #40
Preductwise has Sanders at 6% to be the Democratic nominee Gothmog Nov 2015 #44
Not good at all bravenak Nov 2015 #54
And it avoids that messy democracy shit. 99Forever Nov 2015 #47
Umm hmm bravenak Nov 2015 #53
Well that was.... 99Forever Nov 2015 #61
Yes. Umm hmm. Very. bravenak Nov 2015 #62
Cuz democracy is just a nine-letter word and nothing more. nt valerief Nov 2015 #52
I'm confused why no one has posted the last few lines from the article linked in the OP? aidbo Nov 2015 #57
You just posted it bravenak Nov 2015 #58

snot

(10,530 posts)
1. "Nothing is inevitable, . . .
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:03 AM
Nov 2015

. . . except defeat for those who give up without a fight."

–– "Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea" (1961), script by Irwin Allen & Charles Bennett

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
56. "Hillary has the Superdelegates!!" was a key 2008 PR talking point...
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 12:55 PM
Nov 2015

This "Superdelegate" baloney is designed to demoralize Sanders supporters.

In 2008, when Obama started to be a real threat to Hillary's coronation, these stories about the Superdelegates going for Hillary--were spread far and wide.

Obama supporters, in 2008, were just supposed to give it up--because the Superdelegates were going for Hillary.

We saw in 2008--that this was complete and utter garbage.

In 2008, the Superdelegates voted the will of the Democratic party. They'll do the same in 2015. When the Superdelegates went for Obama in 2008, there was no discussion of them defecting and going for Hillary. No controversy. No nothing.

This ill-conceived talking point was revealed to be wrong in 2008. It's bunk in 2015.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
3. "Your votes don't matter. Settle for what you are given!"
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:07 AM
Nov 2015

Shit, I thought we were running against Republicans, not with them.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
17. Oh yes, I had it "explained" to me quite often back in 2008
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:54 AM
Nov 2015

And now, as then, I understood that the delegates aren't going to put an axe in the party's skull by ignoring the primary results leading to the convention. That Clinton supporters are trying to raise this possibility now - five months before they started doing it in 2008 - Says the same thing it did then, only louder.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
18. I have no idea what you expect to change within the next few months. Realistically.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:56 AM
Nov 2015

Obama was quietly getting those delegates that Clinton needed. He also was ready t steal the Black vote for obvious reasons. I have no idea how anybody expects someone to pull an obama.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
21. I'm certain you don't.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 04:16 AM
Nov 2015

However, even with your lack of imagination and my lack pf prescience, there's no reason to assume that what we see on 11/23/15 will be the results we get on 7/28/16. The fact you are presenting this argument - "even if he wins the votes, we'll just ignore it, so neener" - doesn't exactly shake my confidence in Sanders.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
22. That still give nothing that improves his chances. Nobody says where these votes will come from.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 04:17 AM
Nov 2015
 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
23. One presumes they will come from people.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 04:27 AM
Nov 2015

If you're so dead confident Clinton has it in the bag, why not just take advice from an album I picked up in 2000?

All my party people
You need to come inside
Because we got it people
So just enjoy the ride

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
25. of course it's speculation. All of it is speculation. Mine, and yours, and everyone else's.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 04:36 AM
Nov 2015

S'why I'm just gonna listen to my tunes, watch my zombies, and not worry about it.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
26. Good idea.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 04:40 AM
Nov 2015

I am working on several finals as we speak. Took one of my classes online and she gave i the final last week. My god. Every art movement since the egyptians. Shit is kicking my ass. Can only go for about half an hour before my eyes glaze a bit. Plus, this damn Gardners Art for the Ages weighs about 150,000 pounds. WTF? My arms hurt.

karynnj

(59,504 posts)
42. steal the black vote??
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:03 AM
Nov 2015

If someone white had written that blacks owed HRC their vote or that it was HERS and someone else had to steal it, this comment would rightfully be objected to.

As to super delegates, their endorsement now is not a guarantee of their vote. I think Clinton will win the primaries, but if she is edged out again - the super delegates will shift, because it would destroy the party otherwise.

CentralMass

(15,265 posts)
6. This tantamoūnt to buying an election. The party and it rules and ability to circumvent the will of
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:10 AM
Nov 2015

the voters need to be reformed

CentralMass

(15,265 posts)
13. "We" all expect a fair process where our vote is tallied for the candidate that we cast it for.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:35 AM
Nov 2015

In 2008 (I was Hillary supporter in Ma) I can recall that she was up double digits in state wide polls, nearly 30 points if I recall.
Three of our most prominent super D's, Senators Kennedy, Kerry, and Governor Patrick were all supporting Senator Obama, in fact the Senators were actively campaigning for him. When our primary was held that March, she won the state by double digits. Yet those 3 prominent super D's cast their votes for Senator Obama.

I'm supporting Senator Sanders this time but the process still stinks. One person, one vote. Dump the super delegates and a governing body that can split votes.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
14. I am fine with the process for this election.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:37 AM
Nov 2015

If it warrants changing it will have to be after this cycle.

CentralMass

(15,265 posts)
15. Though I think īt will work itself out, if ends up being a situation where one canddate has
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:49 AM
Nov 2015

either a popular vote and or a conventional delegate advantage but behind the scenes manipulation is used to have the super D's steal the election, it will be yet another tainted election.

However, having supporters and or representatives of one candidate advertising that their candidate has the super D's sewn up this early in the campaign makes it looks like manipulation.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
16. Her delegates have been reported on in real time as they commit.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:52 AM
Nov 2015

This is just totaling them up and letting us know how things stand.

CentralMass

(15,265 posts)
19. Months before even one primary vote has been cast. This is the party, power, and IMO the
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 04:08 AM
Nov 2015

moneyed interests interfering with the democratic process. Why hold elections ?

karynnj

(59,504 posts)
46. there is no real thing called the popular vote in the primaries
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:13 AM
Nov 2015

That was completely something dreamed up after HRC under performed on super tuesday.

Some states with caucuses had zeroes in 2008 because nothing equated to votes. In addition, those caucus states in all cases ended up under weughted.

karynnj

(59,504 posts)
45. however, Kerry said that he would not vote against the winner
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:10 AM
Nov 2015

Of the most regular delegates when asked in February. There was pressure on him and others in MA to vote for HRC. I always wondered why all states didn't get their SD to vote in proportion to their regular delegates. I think Obama got about 40 percent of those - so why should 100 percent line up behind the state winner.

Many super delegates were not elected officials, but party big wigs.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
36. too many people are getting hot and bothered about the supers. after such a contentious primary,
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 08:02 AM
Nov 2015

they will not subvert the will of the voters. they can sing from the rooftops now if they like, but if bernie wins the state delegates and the supers steal it for hillary, we will see the end of the democratic party in real time on the convention floor.

oh, and we'll need to get used to the term "president trump". the disillusioned bernie voters that people are worried about and the millenials will FOR SURE stay home and guarantee a gop sweep.

the one good thing is that such a brouhaha might signal the blessed end of the corrupt two party system. so future generations might have it better (if climate change doesn't kill the planet under republican rule, of course)


restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
43. you said that bernie and hillary are both to your right,
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:08 AM
Nov 2015

just out of curiosity, would you like to see a three or four party system with a real progressive party, or would you prefer to see the two party system stay in place with more left dems? i think i am leaning towards a 3/4 party system, if i could choose

tammywammy

(26,582 posts)
38. I don't think the super delegates will change the election of Sanders wins the most delegates
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 09:19 AM
Nov 2015

In the caucuses and primaries. They won't subvert the will of the voters.

99Forever

(14,524 posts)
47. And it avoids that messy democracy shit.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:21 AM
Nov 2015

Can't be fucking up the Coronation with actual voting by the prols.

 

aidbo

(2,328 posts)
57. I'm confused why no one has posted the last few lines from the article linked in the OP?
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 01:00 PM
Nov 2015
Liberals disgruntled by Carter’s centrist policies sat on their hands in the fall, contributing to the party’s defeat to Ronald Reagan.

True, Bernie Sanders might win. Hillary could fall ill. She could find herself embroiled in a scandal; she is a Clinton, after all. But why should Sanders, or any other party “outsider,” begin his fight for the nomination 359 delegates in the hole?

Democrats like to say they’re the party of the people.

Maybe they should let the people choose their president. Crazy, I know.


I tend to feel the same as those lines I bolded.

It is dis-heartening to see people speak of someone winning the nomination before even one ballot has been cast. Even more so when people speak of the nomination being over after only hearing from just a few states who do not necessarily represent the nation as a whole. Some say the nomination will be locked in by March, I don't even get to vote until May.
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