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2016 Postmortem

Quixote1818

(28,946 posts) Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:08 PM Nov 2015

According to Fivethirtyeight polls mean very little right now

He says very few people are paying attention right now. So any movement toward Bernie this early on could suggest it's closer then we think. According to 538 about 50% of voters in Iowa and NH decide during the final week:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/?ex_cid=538fb

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

According to Fivethirtyeight polls mean very little right now (Original Post) Quixote1818 Nov 2015 OP

Polls only matter when they tell you what you want to hear. n/t Buzz Clik Nov 2015 #1

That's true! PatrickforO Nov 2015 #3

This is why the momentum is what is important going through xmas, not the size of the poll gap. Kentonio Nov 2015 #2

Nate's Footnote: Jarqui Nov 2015 #4

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)

1. Polls only matter when they tell you what you want to hear. n/t

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:10 PM

Nov 2015

PatrickforO

(14,576 posts)

3. That's true!

Reply to Buzz Clik (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:13 PM

Nov 2015

I LOVE the ones that show Bernie ahead...

The others, not so much.

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)

2. This is why the momentum is what is important going through xmas, not the size of the poll gap.

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:12 PM

Nov 2015

Obviously it has to be an achievable amount, but having the momentum behind your campaign can achieve a huge amount when the people who havent paid any attention suddenly realize there are two viable candidates. That's when Clintons unfavourables take their toll.

Jarqui

(10,126 posts)

4. Nate's Footnote:

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:23 PM

Nov 2015

There are better precedents for candidates like Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, who might loosely be compared to George McGovern and Barry Goldwater. ^

- who both won their primaries ... (awful if Cruz wins ...)

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