2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders leads among Democrats who are under 50 years old.
ABC News/Washington Post poll:
Democrats under 50:
Hillary Clinton: 43%
Bernie Sanders: 53%
But Bernie Sanders is doing badly among Democrats 50 and older.
Democrats 50 and older:
Hillary Clinton: 79%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Democrats overall:
Hillary Clinton: 60%
Bernie Sanders: 34%
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sanders-gop-steady-terrorism-worries-back-poll/story?id=35337895
Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)Nobody asked me.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)Hepburn
(21,054 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)It seems to suggest that over 50s are presumed to be far more likely to vote than those under, and predominate in 'likely voters' used in other polls.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)On the technology front, younger voters generally don't have landlines, and a whole lot of the polls are 80% or more landline. Also, younger voters generally will not answer a call from a number they don't recognize. So they are not likely to pick up when a pollster calls their cell phone.
And some of the "likely voter" screens are pretty absurd. In a decent number of them, the voter has to have voted in the last contested presidential primary...which means 2008. So they throw out everyone under 26. And there wasn't exactly an exciting presidential primary in 2012, which causes too many voters to get tossed even when the screen doesn't go back to 2008.
It's been known for some time that polling has been getting more and more inaccurate due to a worse and worse sample. In a few months, we'll see just how bad it is this time around.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)And reminding everyone that "the kids" are who put Obama in office.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Voter_demographics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Voter_demographics
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)The meme that vast swaths of disappointed youths stayed home in 2012 because Obama sold them out is incorrect.
Thank you for killing that meme.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Make up your mind.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)And those who were disappointed in his admin are certainly not going to come out for Hillary.
senz
(11,945 posts)Now they do.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)female Democrat is voting for Sanders.
Of course, I'll never be included in a poll since I don't have a land line, and all but family/friend calls on my cell phone go straight to voice mail.
Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)NT
LWolf
(46,179 posts)that affect whether or not I'd ever be included. When I'm billed by the minute, I don't spend my minutes on anonymous calls. If I don't know the caller, they go to voice mail, and if it's important, they'll leave a message and I'll call back.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Kentonio
(4,377 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)Just an fyi.
The human brain has less than infinity possible connections, so infinity can never be achieved.
Old Codger
(4,205 posts)Ask this old fart....
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)fredamae
(4,458 posts)and in my local community most all "older than 50 farts" .... do as well
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Vattel
(9,289 posts)Just kidding.
Cheers
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Don't underestimate him or us. We're out here and we vote.
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)and my wife is 48, we are voting for Bernie. BTW I do have a landline but never answer the phone if I don't recognize the number. IMO most people do the same, well those who have caller ID that is.
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)demographics favor Hillary a little. I'm seeing it in a number of the polls. I'm using an average of the 2008 & 2012 age demographics.
If you extrapolate to try to adjust for it, Clinton falls from +26 to +20.2 so I'm not whining about peanuts.
The weird thing is that I seem to be seeing this in a lot of polls - a pattern. Don't know why as they should know more about this stuff than me. ??
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)I don't know any Hillary supporters ...all are for Bernie
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)It is highly relevant to this discussion.
Thanks,
Management.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)and voting for bernie at age 41.
nice to see 30-49 also considered good group for Bernie.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)I'm 69 and Feeling the Bern. I cannot fathom that the Boomers would not support Bernie. They know the truth when they see it. I think this poll is wrong.
BuelahWitch
(9,083 posts)Just turned 53 and voting for Bernie!!
Historic NY
(37,451 posts)the ones that reliability come out to vote.
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)since 1984, or a primary vote since 1992.
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)Oh, to be 50 again. What's funny is that the pro-Hillary NYTimes tried, early in his candidacy, to describe his supporters as old hippie types and, in their exceedingly scant coverage of him, always showed him surrounded by earthy looking gray-haired folks. Ol' has-been Bernie. Never saw a photo of his tens of thousands of cheering millennials.
Corporate America, Hillary America, watch out: the future belongs to Bernie Sanders' ideas.
senz
(11,945 posts)that the latest HRC campaign anti-Bernie tactic is to pretend she's already won the primary and is now up against the Republicans.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/24/us/politics/hillary-clinton-looks-past-primaries-in-strategy-to-defeat-bernie-sanders.html
Interestingly, this dovetails quiet well with her DU supporters' tactic of emphasizing her ratings and making comments to the effect that "it's all over."
If no one else has done an OP on this, you might want to.