2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP: Obama +3 in COLORADO
Last month we found Obama ahead by a 49-43 margin in Colorado. But in the wake of his selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate and the Republican convention Romney has consolidated the GOP vote, going from an 85-10 advantage with his party base to an 89-8 one. He continues to trail in the state because of his struggles with independents there though. Obama has a 48-41 lead with them, a trend that's been consistent in our polling there all year.
We're seeing the same trends in Colorado that we're seeing everywhere in terms of where Obama and Romney's support is coming from. Obama is up 52-44 with women, 55-38 with non-white voters, and 53-40 with voters under 45. Romney's up 49-46 with men, 49-47 with white voters, and 51-46 with voters over 45. Obviously if Obama can continue to keep the race close to break even with whites and men his prospects in Colorado are going to be pretty darn good.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-by-3-in-colorado.html
Panasonic
(2,921 posts)for Obama.
He'll win with about 62% of the vote here in Colorado.
Rmoney lost Colorado before he farted in it.
Ashleyshubby
(81 posts)Therefore, I'd like to see more pollsters come up with a similar lead before I agree with your "lock" conclusion.
Panasonic
(2,921 posts)I know exactly what I'm talking about - and I've talked to about 20,000 different people in the last 60 days about the difference between Mitt and Obama - and about 75% are favoring Obama because of many different factors, which includes the specter of a massive tax raise to the middle class (about 85% identify themselves as middle class), ACA, improvements, and jobs.
The 20% are deeply split into two. Paulites and undecided
The other 5%? Rmoney - and I don't even see many Rmoney bumper stickers or signs out there - only one of each in the past 60 days.
cheezmaka
(737 posts)Magnificent!!!
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Colorado has been too close lately, so not bad.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Whether it's the FL, MI, CO or NC polls because the Republicans have been dominating the news. It wouldn't surprise me if that gives Romney a few points in every poll ... so, I'd wager Obama is up 6+ there.
Panasonic
(2,921 posts)Hell, Colorado may be the state to deliver the 270th point needed to secure the election .