...and as I've repeated many times--Clinton is not going to win in Iowa.

The same dynamics that led to her loss in 2008 are present again in 2016.

Bernie started out at 4 percent in Iowa. Now he's within single digits.

Amazing. But not surprising (to me anyway).

Go Bernie!

but she will know she was in quite a fight.

So far I think this competitive race has brought out some good campaigning from our candidates.

Not such good stuff from candidates supporters and detractors sadly.

the illusion of massive support.

Meanwhile, reality.

Just wondering!

IMO

Who the fuck would actually pay for the level of quality Clinton supporters provide?

I just spent well over an hour in my home with a young woman who works on Hillary's campaign working on the caucus ahead. I have met with several young workers for the campaign in my home--all enthusiastic and knowledgeable about the issues and how the government works. Every single one of them are engaged and out there working hard. Peddle that saw elsewhere.

I am the precinct captain for Hillary's campaign for this township--in Iowa. There is a very active ground game here with young people well represented.

And I salute each and every one of you for your passion and dedication. I say that in all sincerity.

I keep forgetting that there are decent HRC supporters. Well I would say the majority but not here on DU.

and they are all decent people. Just because you disagree with someone does not make them dishonest or nefarious. It just means that they don't share your viewpoint. I am proud to number these people among my friends.

You'll see plenty of dishonesty and nefariousness.

Miracle Whip, maybe?

Somewhere....

of former (and highly active) DUers.

So, there's that.

It really doesn't take much to remain in their good graces.

Believe me. I've been alert-stalked more than just about anyone else on this site.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

...before I remotely come close to believing it.

From my perspective, Skinner bends over backwards to be nice to leftists who absolutely, pathologically, hate the Democratic party. To get kicked off this site you have to not only call Obama a fascist corporatist murdering baby killer, you also need to call him a disgusting racial epithet as well.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

They made it clear to not take the brown acid. But you wouldn't listen!

For some...its a constant....

Mine will be all better when HRC wins this Primary....

Mines not....better check in to see what condition YOUR condition is in.....

Very mature.

Very mature...

SMDH.

Thank you, come again.

Keep digging!

You wanted to discuss maturity....thats on you...

where's my check?

"Dude, Where's My Check?"

"Dude, Where's My Car?

Christmas is coming.

I don't think it is Hillary's campaign doing it. Hillary's campaign might be contributing to it but the real effort is coming from higher up the food chain.

As a member of the general population from N.K.

and therefore a measure of diehard support vs. diehard support, I think Bernie has the edge here, despite being a little behind in polling. There is just more enthusiasm on his side. He just might take Iowa and New Hampshire, which would change the whole ball game.

Wins there would put him in striking distance in SC even if he can't pull out a win, and I think he can win Nevada on Labors' issues alone (a lot of casino employees work for tips, and while they manage to make an OK living for themselves it never hurts to have a higher minimum wage as a cushion), not secondarily to that are the issues of immigration, education and Healthcare, all of which Bernie will get very high marks for with the populations of Midwest and western states. There's nowhere he can't compete in the General Election in my opinion, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

First...Iowa, NH, and maybe SC.

if that person chooses to support a Democrat such as Sanders, how would that support be weighed?

This is a sincere question.

Sam

IA is a closed caucus*. You have to be a Democrat to vote in the Democratic caucus. Same with the Republican caucus. So when polling for the caucuses, pollsters ask "which party do you belong to?" and then only ask about that party's candidates.

*It is possible to change your registration at the caucus. So someone who is a Republican or independent can register as a Democrat at the Democratic caucus, and then vote. But pollsters are not going to go by this, because (so far) it has not happened en-masse.

facts to back your assertion.

Actual poll numbers?
Who is the tarot card reader here?

Do you really believe in that crap?

Most certainly do all say the same thing...that is that HRC will win this Primary....in fact the vast majority...

This dude abides, if I can't stay on and comment because I don't support the Democratic Primary Nominee - well, I guess I'll have to leave. I will, respectfully.

I will lurk though on occasion and you can bet your bottom dollar these eyes will be peepin' when we lose the election. The brief bit of 'I told you so, you jackhats' glee will quickly dissipate upon the realization that we never learn and we get the god damned government we deserve.

However, this atheist has faith, faith that the American people MIGHT just do the right thing this time.

Thanks!

I wouldn't put too much stock into one or two polls. Give it time.

He's "climbing", but at a slightly slower rate than Clinton. Tough to catch her that way:

When a big portion of Bernie's support come from young people, and most of them have cell phones versus landline numbers (which so many polls use to do their measurement), that puts one portion of pro-Clinton bias in those numbers. Also, when many of them are looking to call those that have been democratic voters in the past, that leaves out new young voters, which are probably more for Bernie, and those that are switching parties from Republican or independent status, which are largely more for Bernie as well.

Then, you also need to look at how caucuses function, where you have people trying to assemble the necessary number of voters for each delegate that will be sent to the state convention, and where those voters that don't have enough other like minded voters to get a delegate to represent them, where they have to align with voters of different allegiances to get representation. Some voters have to unite with others to have an "undecided" delegate, or with another candidate's group that they feel more represents their interests.

Now, where do you think "left out" O'Malley voters will go if they have to join either a Bernie group or a Clinton group? My money is that they mostly join Bernie voter groups, or an undecided delegate where either their rep is either a Bernie leaning voter or an O'Malley leaning voter.

I do have a question. The last listed Iowa poll is for 11/22, but the graph readjusts daily. Where are the new numbers coming from?

Numbers changes, because older polls fell off. In this case two outliers for HRC (You can see from the sudden jumps when each poll timed out.).

Two +32 outliers for HRC timed out of the aggregate.

RCP has the race much tighter. I have no idea how Iowa will turn out at this rate.

Since each polling firm uses its own selection and weighting criteria, the only real way to measure a trend is to examine how results from the same polling firms change over time.

In this case, using the 3 most recent polls on the RCP site:


Quinnipac 11/16 - 11/22
Clinton 52 / Sanders 41 = Clinton +11 (No change in Clinton lead)

Quinnipac 10/14 - 10/20
Clinton 51 / Sanders 40 = Clinton +11



CBS News/YouGov 11/15 - 11/19
Cllnton 50 / Sanders 44 = Clinton +6 (Clinton lead increased by 3 points)

CBS News/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22
Cllnton 46 / Sanders 43 = Clinton +3



CNN/ORC 10/29 - 11/4
Cllnton 55 / Sanders 37 = Clinton +18 (Clinton lead decreased by 1 point)

CNN/ORC 8/7 - 8/11
Cllnton 50 / Sanders 31 = Clinton +19


So, of the three most recent repeated polls, you have one with no change in Clinton's lead. One where Clinton's lead increased by 3 points, and one where Clinton's lead decreased by 1 point.


Essentially, the polls are stable.

Sid

Posting more than a one-liner and a smiley? Tell me that the pod people got you!

I so miss good ol Sid.

Well, able to post more characters at least.

to refute a single word that you've said!

( Debbie What'sHerParty-Schultz KNOWS this, and is limiting Hillary's 'exposure' to stack the deck in her favor...So VERY un-Democratic and despicable). The more people learn of Bernie Sanders, and his record and platform, the more they LOVE him. THAT'S why he will be our next President.

....he could back out of the last two.

would rise after the first two debates. Certainly, she had no idea Bernie would help her out with the emails. What her campaign knew is that she did herself no favors in the 2008 debates.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/10/19/october-surprises

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/09/21/how-democrats-got-bogged-down-in-a-messy-dispute-over-debates/

He'll sink again.

The PPP and Gravis poll showing Hillary up 30 got pushed out of the RCP average due to the newer polls. There really hasnt been any movement one way or the other. As stated up in the thread, the three polls counted in the RCP average now show a stable race.

Let's ignore the outliers for Clinton of 20+ points or more (Note, no outliers going the other direction) and Gravis as a whole for being horrible. Since 9/30 the polls have been:

+5
+11
+7
+3
+14
+18
+6
+9

All to Clinton. On a straight, non-weighted average, that equals out to a +9.1. That is right in line with the current aggregate showing of +11. In fact, without outliers, you can even say she has ticked up in the past two months.

Bernie just stays true to his message, and his numbers go up.

Iowa, I must add, is a state with many hunters who are politically liberal.

And 85+ recs!

Good lord.

Woo hoo, go Bernie!

It is the natural consequence of comparing three candidates, and choosing the best. As more voters get around to doing their comparison shopping, Bernie's numbers will continue to climb, both in Iowa, and in the rest of the country.

It's not rocket science!

Are freaking out?

Thanks for the thread, reformist.

You must believe that it's very clever.

Haaahahaa.. George, have you ever laughed so hard you just lay there & shake & can't even make any noise?
Funny stuff man! Oh lord..
Thanks

poor bernie, hope he's ok.