2016 Postmortem

DCBob

(24,689 posts) Fri Dec 4, 2015, 10:13 PM Dec 2015

Latest HuffPost/Pollster graphic shows things are stabilizing with Hillary up by 25 points.

I suspect this will probably continue at this level until Iowa unless something dramatic happens in the next few weeks. Likely Dem voters have probably already made up their minds especially in the early states like Iowa, NH and SC. Bernie will need some sort of major miracle to change this. I just don't see it happening.

26 replies

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Latest HuffPost/Pollster graphic shows things are stabilizing with Hillary up by 25 points. (Original Post) DCBob Dec 2015 OP

Yes it looks that way. MoonRiver Dec 2015 #1

I read something about a Bernie "surge" in another post earlier today. DCBob Dec 2015 #2

But the latest poll--the most important polls... CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #3

There has not been an Iowa poll for quite some time. DCBob Dec 2015 #4

Here are some Iowa polling graphs from RCP and Pollster. They show a very encouraging trend Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #20

That was a CBS/Yougov poll - they're consistently way off from other polls: George II Dec 2015 #23

national polls are navel gazing at this point ibegurpard Dec 2015 #5

How many states is Sanders ahead in if that is the metric that matters? NCTraveler Dec 2015 #6

You can check my claim... DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #12

National polls are indicators of what's happening in the states. DCBob Dec 2015 #7

A consistent 4 month trend. Alfresco Dec 2015 #8

Its going to take some sort of major event to kick Bernie up or bring Hillary down. DCBob Dec 2015 #10

She has been far ahead for several months Bernie has flattened out FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #26

The trend is clear. The fact that things are stabilizing is very distressing for Bernie's fans. NurseJackie Dec 2015 #9

Yep the Bernie-surge appears to be over. DCBob Dec 2015 #11

Says the bubble people... 99Forever Dec 2015 #13

Its good you are able to see humour as your candidate sinks. DCBob Dec 2015 #16

Says one of the tone deaf candidate's... 99Forever Dec 2015 #22

Your shallow personal insults have no place here. DCBob Dec 2015 #24

58 days to the 2016 Iowa Presidential Caucuses workinclasszero Dec 2015 #14

And as of alst night anyways, 4 of the 5 most recent polls on Huffpo Persondem Dec 2015 #15

That poll has been updated DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #17

Keep on truckin' Madam President. oasis Dec 2015 #18

Steady as she goes./nt DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #19

She will make an excellent President! MaggieD Dec 2015 #21

Reality Kick. Alfresco Dec 2015 #25

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)

1. Yes it looks that way.

Reply to DCBob (Original post)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 10:16 PM

Dec 2015

Go Hill!

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

2. I read something about a Bernie "surge" in another post earlier today.

Reply to MoonRiver (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 10:19 PM

Dec 2015

Must be some Bernster fantasy clickie poll.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

3. But the latest poll--the most important polls...

Reply to DCBob (Original post)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 10:26 PM

Dec 2015

...shows Bernie within single digits of Clinton in Iowa.

I mean...I can barely contain my enthusiasm.

These national polls mean zilch.

They meant nothing in 2008. Hillary was destroying Obama in all national polls. Didn't mean a thing.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

4. There has not been an Iowa poll for quite some time.

Reply to CoffeeCat (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 10:56 PM

Dec 2015

The most recent poll from two weeks ago had Hillary up by 9 points. I think the Hillary team was pleased with that. It will be interesting to see the results from the next Iowa polls. I suspect probably similar to those latest polls as nothing really significant has happened since and It appears things are stabilizing.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)

20. Here are some Iowa polling graphs from RCP and Pollster. They show a very encouraging trend

Reply to CoffeeCat (Reply #3)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 01:36 PM

Dec 2015

As you know better than most, polling does not capture the enthusiasm which is so critical in caucuses like Iowa's contest, and so if Sanders is close in late January, I'll feel good about his chances on February 1st.

George II

(67,782 posts)

23. That was a CBS/Yougov poll - they're consistently way off from other polls:

Reply to CoffeeCat (Reply #3)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 02:38 PM

Dec 2015

Here are all the Iowa polls going back to September as gathered by RealClearPolitics. Their average shows Clinton up double-digits (11%) and you can see the CBS/Yougov polls are way off from other polls. (sorry for the formatting)

RCP Average 10/29 - 11/22 -- -- 52.0 41.0 4.0 Clinton +11.0

Quinnipiac 11/16 - 11/22 543 LV 4.2 51 42 4 Clinton +9
CBS News/YouGov 11/15 - 11/19 602 LV 7.6 50 44 5 Clinton +6
CNN/ORC 10/29 - 11/4 498 LV 4.5 55 37 3 Clinton +18
PPP (D) 10/30 - 11/1 615 LV 3.9 57 25 7 Clinton +32
Gravis Marketing 10/29 - 10/29 273 RV 6.0 57 25 3 Clinton +32
KBUR 10/29 - 10/31 681 LV 3.8 46 32 5 Clinton +14
Monmouth 10/22 - 10/25 400 LV 4.9 65 24 5 Clinton +41
Loras College 10/19 - 10/22 500 LV 4.4 62 24 3 Clinton +38
CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 554 LV 6.9 46 43 3 Clinton +3
DMR/Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/19 402 LV 4.9 48 41 2 Clinton +7
Quinnipiac 10/14 - 10/20 592 LV 4.0 51 40 4 Clinton +11
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/23 - 9/30 348 RV 5.3 33 28 3 Clinton +5
Gravis Marketing 9/25 - 9/27 328 RV 5.4 40 31 2 Clinton +9
PPP (D) 9/18 - 9/20 488 RV 4.4 43 22 3 Clinton +21
CBS News/YouGov 9/3 - 9/10 646 LV 6.6 33 43 5 Sanders +10

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)

5. national polls are navel gazing at this point

Reply to DCBob (Original post)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 10:59 PM

Dec 2015

The only polls that might matter are the state polls in early primary states right now.

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)

6. How many states is Sanders ahead in if that is the metric that matters?

Reply to ibegurpard (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 11:04 PM

Dec 2015

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

12. You can check my claim...

Reply to NCTraveler (Reply #6)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 11:54 AM

Dec 2015

According to aggregate polling the only state the Vermont independent is ahead in is Vermont. He trails in every other state that has been polled and is tied with Hillary in New Hampshire.

___________

The only question now barring a health catastrophe for Hillary Clinton is when her nomination becomes a metaphysical certainty. This is going to be a battle in the Fall so the sooner the better.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

7. National polls are indicators of what's happening in the states.

Reply to ibegurpard (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 4, 2015, 11:12 PM

Dec 2015

With such a huge lead nationally its likely Hillary is also leading in most states as well.

Alfresco

(1,698 posts)

8. A consistent 4 month trend.

Reply to DCBob (Original post)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 11:29 AM

Dec 2015

57 days to go till Iowa. I like her chances.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

10. Its going to take some sort of major event to kick Bernie up or bring Hillary down.

Reply to Alfresco (Reply #8)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 11:42 AM

Dec 2015

I just dont see anything like that happening in the next few weeks. And the comparisons to 2008 by some Bernie supporters are absurd. Obama was a rising star with huge potential across all voting blocks. Bernie support is much narrower with less room to expand. Plus the fact Hillary is a much stronger smarter more experienced candidate this time. I agree, I like her chances.

FloridaBlues

(4,008 posts)

26. She has been far ahead for several months Bernie has flattened out

Reply to DCBob (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 7, 2015, 01:54 PM

Dec 2015

For the past 2 months. I'd say it's pretty much over as far as people making up their minds at least in the early states and Super Tuesday.
people have heard Bernie and his message and majority of Democrats are still for Hillary.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

9. The trend is clear. The fact that things are stabilizing is very distressing for Bernie's fans.

Reply to DCBob (Original post)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 11:40 AM

Dec 2015

This thing will be over before the end of March. Hillary supporters can move forward, and the hardcore Hillary-haters can go to wherever it is that haters go. (I get the feeling that they won't be permitted to continue on here.)

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

11. Yep the Bernie-surge appears to be over.

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #9)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 11:43 AM

Dec 2015

99Forever

(14,524 posts)

13. Says the bubble people...

Reply to DCBob (Reply #11)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 12:04 PM

Dec 2015

... for the twenty-fifth time....

Bwahahahahahahahahahhaha.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

16. Its good you are able to see humour as your candidate sinks.

Reply to 99Forever (Reply #13)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 01:27 PM

Dec 2015

99Forever

(14,524 posts)

22. Says one of the tone deaf candidate's...

Reply to DCBob (Reply #16)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 02:05 PM

Dec 2015

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

24. Your shallow personal insults have no place here.

Reply to 99Forever (Reply #22)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 06:46 PM

Dec 2015

Waste of board space.

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

14. 58 days to the 2016 Iowa Presidential Caucuses

Reply to DCBob (Original post)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 12:20 PM

Dec 2015

Go Hillary!

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

15. And as of alst night anyways, 4 of the 5 most recent polls on Huffpo

Reply to DCBob (Original post)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 01:20 PM

Dec 2015

have Clinton at ~59%. Only the Ipsos poll is showing otherwise. Of course that is the poll the Sanders people cling to and shout "Bernie is surging". If Bernie really surged every time his supporters shouted it, he'd have 110% of the vote by now.