People in Hell want ice water too.

...would be a bit more humble and less quick to think they've got it in the bag. Weren't they in the same position before in 2008? Hillary was inevitable. They insisted that Hillary had all of the superdelegates and that Obama could never win and he just wasn't ready for the big leagues.

Oh the propaganda against him endless. But he won and Hillary came in third.

Nothing is certain. That's for sure. So maybe a little less hubris is in order?

Anyone who thinks they know what will happen in Iowa, doesn't know anything about the Iowa electorate, or the caucuses. Because our system is not a typical vote (we vote by show of hands, then discuss/debate, then have a second count) Iowans like to caucus only after doing a great deal of due diligence. It's not unusual for a person to attend several candidate rallies, in addition to reading articles and paying attention to ads/news content.

This process has not even begun. We don't even get into 4th gear until a couple of weeks before the caucuses (mid-late January).

Iowans don't like to be told who is "inevitable." Obviously, that did not work for Clinton at all in 2008. We need you to earn our vote by spelling out your ideas and policies. And we hate negativity and we are irritated by bs mudslinging. That doesn't inform us, and but it does tell us a great deal about the candidate who resorts to negative tactics.

The Iowa Democrats have a very strong Progressive contingent. This is why they went for Obama.

I love politics, and I just now started paying attention. I got a call from the Sanders campaign a couple of weeks ago, inviting me to an event. I'm now a volunteer for the campaign and loving it.

This entire primary has barely begun. We've got so many states to go--with the first one just starting to gear up.

Anyone who thinks they have this locked up now, is spreading talking points intended to help their candidate (and probably denigrate the opposition). It's cool. It's part of the ground game to disseminate those talking points. But those talking points have nothing to do with the reality on the ground.

My brother lives in Iowa, I'm in Minn. The "political gurus" must think we are chumps here in "fly over country." I guess that's the result of living in the bubble culture. Like a bunch of grifters these clowns think they can swoop in once every 4 years, demand we vote for their corrupt candidate then ignore us and OUR issues till next time. Well all I can say is, good luck with that, fools.

I'm not saying Clinton is not the strong favorite to win.

But it is not set in stone, and there is the potential for a lot of fluidity after the holidays, with surprises in store.

The Clinton camp would be smarter to at least confine their premature gloating and condescension and arrogant assumption of victory among themselves. Smugness is not a quality that will win over anyone.

And Hillary knows it, too.

...and that is why I am fearful that if we Dems are shutting our eyes to her huge negatives and lack of cross-over draw, we will be saying "Hello" to a Repuke Prez replacing Obama.

Clinton finishes third again after Iowans decides that Clinton isn't worth their effort.

you're going to need all the luck you can get and it still won't be enough

We're voting for Sanders whether you like it or not

Note to Bernie: "You're no Obama."

and hillary is much weaker then she was in 2008...

Sorry to burst your bubble.

I just have to ask--is it just a feeling you have, or is there some widespread evidence? I was a rabid Obama supporter in 2008, and I do *not* see the comparison.

that is a statement no one can really believe. Not without sealing themselves firmly in a fictional bubble.

But Hillary is still Hillary.

...but Hillary is still Hillary.

She and her campaign didn't go over so well, last time.

What makes you think that a second time around will be magical for Hillary?

We obviously know that Bernie is not Obama. I think, this time around--support is stronger for Bernie. Many see him as the last hope.

I also think that we've got similar dynamics here. I saw all of this play out in 2008. You've got an underdog candidate, that the Hillary camp drones on and on and on about--how they can't win and won't win.

Her supporters are constantly spewing the same talking points that I heard in Iowa in 2008, "The race is over", "Hillary has it all ready won", "Hillary is leading in all of the polls".

Hillary was leading in all of the polls at this time in 2007, as well. Every national poll she was trouncing Obama. Every state poll as well, including Iowa.

And look who is President today. It can happen. Yes, Bernie is not Obama, but voters chose someone else besides Hillary the last time we were in the same place. Support for her is soft. If someone else interesting runs, her support is easily eroded. It did in 2008. It could again this cycle.

finally we may be able to say bye-bye to hillary

What threat is that I wonder? Hillary has been in the lead since forever and Bernie hit his ceiling months ago.

Some people just want a horse race no matter what the facts are I guess.

As the nephew of a professional boxer and the son of a Golden Gloves boxer Knock Outs are scary. Hillary is a most compassionate person and I trust she will dispatch of the Vermont independent gently.

Yes, Hillary will likely win SC, Nevada, Iowa, and maybe NH. It will be over by Super Tuesday.

Unlike 2008 where Obama had endorsements - including important ones like Kennedy, Hillary is on a record pace to wrap up important endorsements from Congress and Governors and state delegations.

Unlike the labor vote split with Obama, Hillary has dominated the union votes.

Unlike Obama's popular supporters like Oprah, Hillary has gained the support of most entertainers.

Unless Bernie turns black, Hispanic, or female he has no demographic base that identifies with him. Hillary has all of the above wrapped up (which is why she actually had more primary votes than Obama in 2008).

Hillary now has international experience, a better campaign plan to wrap up super delegates, and better funding than 2008.

Bernie is a weaker opponent than Obama in many ways: not a democrat, socialist brand, weak funding, no legal training/experience, weak organization.

By all measures, Bernie has no chance.

Which some people hate to see no doubt but that doesn't change their validity one little bit.

Any comparison to what happened in 2008 with Hillary vs Obama is laughable.

Some people still cling to it though. Its like their last lifeline before reality slaps them in the face starting in Iowa I guess.

Emotions can make some people overlook the facts.

Only this time, the split is horizontal. Establishment Labor backs Clinton, the rank and file support Sanders.

And another thing: "socialist" is not a dirty word anymore for anyone born after 1980. This is the 21 st century.

I am an elected union officer and a 40 year union member. We completed polls, looked at candidate positions, and checked their proposals. Our membership was overwhelmingly in favor of Hillary, and in fact Bernie was their place. Rank and file did NOT support Bernie except for a few very loud Bernie and O'Malley proponents.

Our union has no reason to endorse any candidate except the one that best supports us. Bernie's plan to tax our state employee's retirement funds was a big problem. Also, our diverse immigrant population were very aware of Vermont's lack of tuition equity that was missing from Bernie's higher education plan. There were many problems with Bernie's position on guns. In Florida, we are fighting now to keep guns off campuses and out of out schools. Bernie's gun positions is a serious problem for educators.

Of course, a majority of our union are women who liked Hillary's salary transparency and call for preschool education. The bottom line for educators was easy. Hillary was the best choice.

Our polls show the general public still dislikes the idea of someone running as a "socialist".

many educators join as student members while still undergraduates. New teachers join in the first few years of employment. At meetings, we seek out younger people as officers and provide outreach to new members. We actively go door to door to recruit new members and hold new employee welcomes every year.

In my chapter (1500), we are almost evenly split across ages with the majority middle age and mid-career. I could not tell you at a certain point like age 35. At our social last week, the majority were younger, new members. Some of us officers are older members, but not all.

We have newer employees on our collective bargaining team, on our grievance team, and we are seeking nominees representing all ages for our 2016 elections. Usually we have a mix running. One of our affiliated unions (5 groups) elected a graduate student in his 20's as chapter President last year.

I think our leadership and members represent the educators in the area pretty accurately.

Both the service workers and the environmentalists were split horizontally to a significant degree.

The sooner the better.

I think they'll demonstrate that they want Hillary Clinton to be the nominee. I think the primary race ends on March 2.

She won't win the general.

through November of next year, but it seems to me that your projection is incorrect. Again, the voters will decide in November.

The voters always get the last word.

We can talk again in November, I guess.

how's that working out?

She doesn't have to win DU. She doesn't even remotely need DU.

Once again, HRC is way, way, way, way, way, ahead.

[font color="white"]Sanders is no Obama[/font]

but now I'm for Hillary being President.

They came to work together for the greatness of our country and ended up friends. that's what happens when you don't hold grudges and think of the Planet instead of ones self.

We need to hear him and he will keep talking.

Hillary will have coat tails and can win back the Senate. Bernie could be a leader there.

Against all Republicans, he does better in GE polls than Clinton. Her coattails are verging on negative...

The moment he became a credible great to win the nomination that would change and they would destroy him quite easily.

And he'd still do better in the GE, according to those polls that camp Clinton is so fond of.

I take their word over yours.

And if instead he was up against Sanders, the Senate would flip, and even the house would be in play again.

She may very well win the primary, but she won't be president yet. Somehow she'll have to figure out how to create an iota of excitement among the voters currently supporting Bernie. If they stay home, she's done for.

If she cannot get the Independents, she loses the GE. And...I do not know anyone outside of the Dem party who supports her. However, I do know Repubbies and Independents who support Bernie. Hillary is a loser and in particular as to the GE.

Good to know.

Most are Dems and will support the nominee.

100% of them on this board will be supporting the nominee or they won't be on this board.

... have convinced themselves that the real world is a mirror image of the environment they've created for themselves here. In that imaginary world, 85% of Democrats support Bernie, and at least 25% are of the "Bernie-or-Bust" variety, and where all the polls are rigged or flawed.

They should start adjusting their expectations and bracing themselves for disappointment. Or not. Either way, it makes no difference to me.

and her Team is working hard in NH.




Hillary for NH Retweeted
Kathy Hochul ?@KathyHochul Dec 6

In Salem, NH - it's on each & every one of us to make calls, knock doors to get @HillaryClinton elected! #ImWithHer
Hillary for NH

Can't wait