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thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 09:50 AM Dec 2015

The other side of HRC's lead in MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist poll

Last edited Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:51 AM - Edit history (1)

There have been numerous OPs about this poll in the last 48 hours, focusing on Clinton's lead

"Hillary Clinton Leads in 2016 Match-Ups as Ben Carson, Marco Rubio Run Closest" or similar at
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141282397
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251880619
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110729143
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251881360
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251883122

But there's another interesting fact in the poll...

54% of registered voters agree with the statement:

"We've had enough Bushes and Clintons running for the White House and it's time to give someone else a chance"


Of course, that doesn't mean that those 54% definitely won't vote for Clinton... they might dislike a given Republican candidate even more than they dislike the idea of another Bush or Clinton, and so might "hold their nose" and vote for someone else they don't really want.

But with so many HRC supporters touting this poll, I think it's worth considering that the same poll says that 54% of the registered votes for the general election would really rather not vote for a Clinton.

I do wonder how Sanders would have done in these same matchups in this poll, but they only asked how HRC would do against these Republicans, they did not ask about Sanders.

The full poll results are at:
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us151115/MSNBC_Telemundo_Marist%20Poll_Survey%20Findings_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202015.pdf
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The other side of HRC's lead in MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist poll (Original Post) thesquanderer Dec 2015 OP
It just goes to show you..... VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #1
What it shows is that many will vote for Hillary... thesquanderer Dec 2015 #9
No it doesn't.....conjecture. VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #12
re: "Its not like they have no other choices" thesquanderer Dec 2015 #13
No it isn't...we haven't had the Primary yet... VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #14
What does that have to do with it? thesquanderer Dec 2015 #16
Except it looks less and like it will be Bush. Agschmid Dec 2015 #2
Not sure what your point is. thesquanderer Dec 2015 #7
That is an interesting number. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #3
The poll did not mention O'Malley or Sanders anywhere thesquanderer Dec 2015 #5
They are the same group being polled. That is clear with the metrics used. nt. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #6
The same group as what? thesquanderer Dec 2015 #8
Biased much Robbins Dec 2015 #4
It does make you wonder who comes up with the questions, and why thesquanderer Dec 2015 #17
You realize the poll is mixed party...41% report being Republican. Sancho Dec 2015 #10
It's not a bad question... thesquanderer Dec 2015 #11
THANK YOU! Thanks for pointing this out. eom Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #15
 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
1. It just goes to show you.....
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:05 AM
Dec 2015

you are not representative of the American Voter....who are a complicated bunch!

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
9. What it shows is that many will vote for Hillary...
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:37 AM
Dec 2015

...as the lesser of two evils. They don't want a Clinton, but they want these other Republicans even less!

But as I mentioned in post #7, I think that does imply an additional point of vulnerability for Hillary in the general, in that she actually needs the votes of many people who would rather not vote for a Clinton.

Luckily, she will probably get enough of them to win.

(Which has nothing to do with whether or not I am representative of the American voter, or simple rather than complicated, which seems like a barely veiled and uncalled for personal insult...)

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
12. No it doesn't.....conjecture.
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 11:16 AM
Dec 2015

Its not like they have no other choices....apparently as much as they "dislike Clinton" as you claim....they like the other options FAR less!

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
13. re: "Its not like they have no other choices"
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 01:52 PM
Dec 2015

Well, it kind of IS like that. Unless they vote 3rd-party or stay home. But for most people who vote, the choice will indeed come down to Hillary or a Republican, and no other (realistic) choices.

re: "apparently as much as they 'dislike Clinton' as you claim....they like the other options FAR less!"

Well yes, that's exactly what I was saying. 54% don't want to vote for a Clinton, but since Hillary wins the matchups in the poll, obviously, they like these particular Republican alternatives even less. So we agree about that.

Oh, and it's not "as I claim," it's the figure from the poll, about the percentage of registered voters who would rather not see another Clinton or Bush in the WH. And that doesn't mean they dislike her per se (you put that in my mouth) but rather, as I actually said, "dislike the idea of another Bush or Clinton" as President. They would prefer to vote for someone who is not a Clinton or a Bush... but obviously, they are willing to, if they dislike the alternative even more. Fortunately for Hillary, many of them do.

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
16. What does that have to do with it?
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 02:10 PM
Dec 2015

54% of registered voters would prefer to vote for someone who is not a Bush or a Clinton come November. Though when the same poll puts Clinton up against specific non-Bush Republicans (Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson) she ties or beats them, showing that some voters will vote for her despite not wanting another Clinton in the WH, because apparently they want those Republicans in the WH even less. It's not the ideal position of strength, but at least it seems like she's likely to win, thanks in part to this weak Republican field.

What does the fact that we haven't had the primary yet have to do with that?

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
7. Not sure what your point is.
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:26 AM
Dec 2015

Obviously, if it's Clinton vs. Bush, then neither side has an edge among those voters who feel we've had enough Clintons and Bushes.

However, it is looking very unlikely that Bush will bet he Republican candidate, whereas it is look very likely that Clinton WILL be the Democratic candidate. And that's the issue.

In Clinton-verus-"anyone other than Bush," Clinton has to deal with the fact that 54% of the registered voters would prefer to vote for someone not named Clinton. In this case, she's saved largely by the fact that, as much as these people don't want to vote for a Clinton, they are often even more turned off by Republican opposition. So she will often be able to get the "lesser of two evils" vote from these people, as this poll indicates.

But the fact that these people are choosing her on that basis, i.e. more a vote against the other candidate than a vote for Hillary, means that she has a vulnerability there that someone else might not. It may be easier for an unsavory Republican to sway someone away from an opponent that a voter isn't enthusiastic about voting for than it would be for that same Republican to sway someone away from a Democratic candidate that someone actually feels good about voting for. And we know going in that 54% of the voting public would not feel so good about voting for Hillary, i.e. that they would prefer a non-Clinton (and a non-Bush). The fact that she is likely to win anyway just shows how unappealing these Republican candidates are!

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
3. That is an interesting number.
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:11 AM
Dec 2015

It shows that there is a group out there who would rather see someone other than a Clinton yet they still feel she is the best choice. Interesting dichotomy with that small overlap. A portion of that group says they don't want Clinton yet feel she is better moving forward than O'Malley or Sanders. Now that's a statement.

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
5. The poll did not mention O'Malley or Sanders anywhere
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:21 AM
Dec 2015

so the poll did not say what you suggest. However, it does say that there is a group out there who would rather see someone other than a Clinton yet they still feel she is--not necessarily the best choice--but better than these Republicans.

Presumably, some of these likely would prefer an O'Malley or a Sanders.

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
8. The same group as what?
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:27 AM
Dec 2015

I posted the link to the full poll. These particular respondents were not asked anything about O'Malley or Sanders, they were not listed as options on any question.

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
17. It does make you wonder who comes up with the questions, and why
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 08:43 PM
Dec 2015

or whether there is some undisclosed sponsorship.

Sancho

(9,070 posts)
10. You realize the poll is mixed party...41% report being Republican.
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:39 AM
Dec 2015

It's a bad question - some may object to the Bushes, others to the Clintons, and others to both.

With only a third Democrats, that result is impossible to interpret.

thesquanderer

(11,991 posts)
11. It's not a bad question...
Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:49 AM
Dec 2015

...because it framed it as not wanting either a Clinton OR a Bush. You had to feel negatively about BOTH prospects to answer the question affirmatively. And there are many people who feel that way, regardless of whether they are Republicans, Democrats, or neither.

As for only a third of the respondents being Democrats, in general, that's not a bad skew, as only 30% of the population identify as Democrats.

The poll respondent percentages (registered voters) were actually 34% Dem, 27% Repub, which isn't too far off from the general population, 30% Dem, 26% Repub. If anything, as you can see, it slightly favors Dems.

(Affiliation figures from http://www.gallup.com/poll/180440/new-record-political-independents.aspx )

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