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Bernie is actually doing quite well in the polls. (Original Post) redgreenandblue Dec 2015 OP
Okay, I'll repeat it.. brooklynite Dec 2015 #1
Does that mean Hillary isn't buying the polls upaloopa Dec 2015 #2
Actually ... he is. earthside Dec 2015 #3
I agree with America and Democrats win if Sanders wins. artislife Dec 2015 #4
He's far exceeded my expectations firebrand80 Dec 2015 #5
He's winning in New Hampshire (by a whopping 10% in the most recent poll), Maine, Utah, Vermont! Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #6

brooklynite

(94,675 posts)
1. Okay, I'll repeat it..
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:29 PM
Dec 2015

Down by 20+ points nationwide

Down in every State except New Hampshire

No growth in the past month

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
2. Does that mean Hillary isn't buying the polls
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:31 PM
Dec 2015

or maybe she just isn't getting her money's worth.

What do you think?

earthside

(6,960 posts)
3. Actually ... he is.
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:32 PM
Dec 2015

In fact, he is doing quite well considering how the insider establishment elites who run most of the Democratic Party are backing another longtime insider establishment elitist candidate.

Bernie Sanders is the underdog and the most genuine progressive in the race; all of his support comes mostly from regular folks and activist progressives.

So, the Sanders campaign should be very encouraged by his poll standing and by the attention the Senator has received. In my estimation, Sanders is capturing the imagination of young people and is starting to really get base Democrats to consider his candidacy. By caucus and primary election days in 2016, he will be winning.

Sen. Sanders is talking about the things most Americans are concerned about: our children's education, our jobs, our income, our health care, our retirement -- and he has the discipline and boldness to not be distracted by the media hyped so-called issue du jour.

And Sen. Sanders is a good campaigner and speech-giver ... unlike the "it's my turn" 'conservative', corporate and uninspiring candidate.

America and Democrats win if Sanders wins.

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
4. I agree with America and Democrats win if Sanders wins.
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:37 PM
Dec 2015

I don't care about the polls, I don't think they are getting a good sample. This country doesn't have 3 channels on TV anymore, we all don't learn the same things in schools, the influenzes we all are under are more varied than ever. And we all have the ability to see who is calling.

They are archaic.

firebrand80

(2,760 posts)
5. He's far exceeded my expectations
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 08:02 PM
Dec 2015

I still don't think he has what it takes to make it over the top, but I apparently know nothing.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
6. He's winning in New Hampshire (by a whopping 10% in the most recent poll), Maine, Utah, Vermont!
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 08:18 PM
Dec 2015

Here are the most recent polls in Maine, New Hampshire, Utah, and Vermont.

In Iowa, Clinton has the lead but Sanders has the momentum. Iowa is notoriously difficult to poll because it si a caucus state, but -- historically -- the Des Moines Register has a pretty good track record, and here is a graph of the Des Moines Register's polling results (it is shown two ways: with moderate smoothing and then, to better capture the trend, smoothed -- I include both so the Give Hillary Her Crown Now! squad can get twice as pissy about it):

MODERATE SMOOTHING



SMOOTHED


Either way, Clinton's trend is downward and Sanders' trend is upward.

After the Des Moines Register, the second most active live phone pollster is Quinnipiac, and that polling confirms this trend:

MODERATE SMOOTHING (Quinnipiac)



Sometimes the Give Hillary Her Crown Now! squad likes to crow about internet polls, and CBS has commissioned some internet polling in Iowa:

MODERATE SMOOTHING (CBS/YouGov)



Looking at all these polls together confirms that Clinton's path is generally downward and Sanders' path forward in Iowa is up!

SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT TRENDS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov)



SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT TRENDS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov and Des Moines Register)



MODERATE SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHS AND LOWS IN POLLS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov and Des Moines Register)


Ultimately, I prefer the Des Moines Register polling and I'm not much of a fan of the type of internet-based polling that CBS commissioned, but whether you look to the Des Moines Register or Quinnipiac or CBS/YouGov or a combination of these pollsters, Iowa looks like a close race. The coronation squad does not want to hear this, but the higher they raise expectations, the more momentum Sanders will take out of Iowa.
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