2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders has a momentum problem.
-snip-
Once upon a time, it looked as though Vice President Biden might run for president. He decided not to, toppling a set of dominoes with a predictable outcome: Support for Hillary Clinton rose more than support for Bernie Sanders.
On Monday morning, the last of those dominoes fell over, with the release of anew poll from the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg News. In October, right before Biden made his announcement, Clinton was at 42 percent in the Register/Bloomberg poll and Sanders was at 37 percent. Now, Clinton is at 48 and Sanders is at 39.
A shrug. Sure. We knew that would happen, right? But the new poll also makes something else clear: Sanders is not seeing the traction he needs if he wants to win the state. And the big burst of momentum that put him into contention over the summer slowed, retreated and isn't necessarily starting back up with fewer than 50 days until Iowa.
We can track Sanders's momentum by comparing his polling to Clinton's. You can see him consistently gaining ground against Clinton until early October. The halt to his forward progress happened shortly before the first Democratic debate. In the wake of that, Clinton's lead over Sanders nationally and in Iowa and New Hampshire grew. Sanders has recovered somewhat, but not yet enough in Iowa or nationally.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=
The rest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/14/bernie-sanderss-momentum-problem/?postshare=1281450109556159&tid=ss_tw
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)and ultimately polling numbers.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Her favorability is underwater with everyone except Democrats.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)That is the wierdest argument to date why someone should not think Clinton has a chance in the GE.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)So,...
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)thesquanderer
(11,993 posts)at least to be sec'y of state
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)...the more they realize his decades long, get nothing done stint in public office won't do jack shit for the nation. He simply isn't leadership material.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)!
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)frankly I don't care if you come up with anything or not, I'm not concerned.
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)I'm not a blind follower of anyone or anything.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Congress is not known to be a progressive institution lately, to say the least. Over the past few decades, the House of Representatives was only controlled by the Democrats from 2007 to 2010, and a flood of corporate money has quieted the once-powerful progressive movement that passed legislation moving the country forward between the New Deal era and the Great Society. Yet, as difficult as it may be to believe, a socialist from Vermont is one of its most accomplished members.
Bernie Sanders was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1990, and many immediately doubted his efficacy. It is virtually impossible for an independent to be effective in the House, said then-Congressman Bill Richardson (D-NM). As an independent you are kind of a homeless waif. Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), today an outspoken advocate for Hillary Clinton, said Bernie's holier-than-thou attitudesaying in a very loud voice he is smarter than everyone else and purer than everyone elsereally undercuts his effectiveness.
As if things didn't look bad enough, in 1994 the Republicans swept into power in the House of Representatives, dashing the hopes of many that Congress could do anything progressive whatsoever. But Sanders was not content with tilting at windmills. He didn't want to just take a stand, he wanted to pass legislation that improved the United States of America. He found his vehicle in legislative amendments.
Amendments in the House of Representatives are often seen as secondary vehicles to legislation that individual members sponsor, but they are an important way to move resources and build bipartisan coalitions to change the direction of the law. Despite the fact that the most right-wing Republicans in a generation controlled the House of Representatives between 1994 and 2006, the member who passed the most amendments during that time was not a right-winger like Bob Barr or John Boehner. The amendment king was, instead, Bernie Sanders.
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernie-gets-it-done-sanders-record-pushing-through-major-reforms-will-surprise-you
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)posts which seem to be copies from somewhere else, they are having little effect.
Neither are the dishonest anti Hillary posts.
I see Hillary winning NH, IA, SC, AZ and all of Super Tuesday states. It will be interesting to see what you post then.
asuhornets
(2,405 posts)Sanders is not presidential. And he is grumpy no one to listen or see him on TV for the next four years, let alone eight years.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)The only thing Bernie's decades in office have yielded is shielding big gun manufacturers against lawsuits from victims families and supporting one of the MIC's favorite tax money black holes, the F-35 fighter.
Neither of which fit into the Bernie Sanders persona that his campaign is trying to sell to the american voter.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)I'm always amused by how smug and happy Clinton supporters are about liberalism getting ground into the dirt by right-wing economic, social, and foreign policy at every turn.
I would ask why that is, but well, it's kind of obvious at this point.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)And on whose behalf...
kacekwl
(7,022 posts)He has his supporters and gaining more ever day. I take all polls with a grain of salt.
Nitram
(22,892 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Though, if you actually believed he was doomed, why keep shouting "he's doomed" instead of just letting it happen? It would mean a landslide for your candidate.
Clinton's internal numbers must be awful.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)But it's easy to understand why Bernie's fans would find it comforting and reassuring to view it that way.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Not exactly something I'd think too many people would strive for. Especially when those people you are being a jerk to you'll need for the general election...
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)People vote (or don't vote) for their own personal reasons. It seems most unlikely that someone will choose to not-vote because they're mad at the push-back from some anonymous individual/s on an internet web site. But, if such a creature exists in the wild, then they'd likely to be on the Endangered Species List.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)No? Good thing you're bringing it out now! It'll TOTALLY get people to overlook how proud you are of this "be as mean as possible" strategy.
Though that's even assuming there's equivalent behavior. Since accurately quoting Clinton is labeled a "right-wing attack" on Clinton now, and Google and YouTube have entered the pantheon of "right-wing sources", that symmetry does not exist.
Many of us have "the luxury" of a meaningless vote in the general election. For example, if Clinton is the nominee, she will lose my state by double digits.
If the vote can't acquire meaning by changing the electoral vote count, meaning can be acquired in other ways. You'll just have to hope "be as mean as possible" doesn't cause such an effect in the very few states where each vote will matter. After all, there's still people complaining about the tiny number of Democrats in FL who voted for Nader (and overlooking that 10x more Democrats voted for Bush).
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... have, in my opinion, already conceded the nomination to Hillary.
But, considering their "aggressive enthusiasm" (for lack of a better phrase that could this reply hidden) I must admit that I'm surprised to see how many are now taking this posture of being delicate spring flowers who are being trod upon by the mean-old heavy-footed Hillary supporters who are being "as mean as possible".
Seriously? That's how you want to play it?
And then, using the word "assuming" to suggest that "equivalent behavior" is non-existent? Again ... seriously?
As I mentioned before, it's each person's own decision how they want to spend their (luxury) vote. They'll do as they please with no regard to what NurseJackie had to say (or not say) on this anonymous internet web site. I won't flatter such vanities by groveling to their demands or threats.
So, I say to you ... vote as you please! Do whatever your heart desires! Brag, threaten, whine, scream ... it makes no difference to me. Justify your tantrum and "protest vote" (or "revenge-vote" in whatever way makes you feel the most important, most powerful, and most in-control.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)What it does matter is time will continue past November.
Clinton supporters such as yourself seem to have decided that shredding our community to advance Clinton's candidacy is a strategy they want to take. Facts and quotes are now "smears". Taunting is the primary means of trying to "convince" people to support your candidate. Heck, Clinton supporters even set up another web site to coordinate attacks on other DUers...and then locked the doors after screenshots were posted.
No matter what happens in November, DU will continue. And there's now a very large number of people who will no longer be looked upon in the same light, thanks to the "be as mean as possible" strategy.
Hey, you're the one using the strategy in the hopes that damaging our community helps your candidate.
You, and several of your cohorts have changed how I will cast my vote, if Clinton is the nominee. It's a meaningless vote electorally, so I'm giving it meaning in a different way. As a rejection of the continuous animosity you and your cohorts have shown to everyone else on DU.
Again, time continues past November.
Or you planning to make a sock after this account becomes too toxic?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Last edited Mon Dec 14, 2015, 06:26 PM - Edit history (1)
Then why all the fuss?
...
Hey, you're the one using the strategy in the hopes that damaging our community helps your candidate.
"Strategy"? Odd, that you'd see it that way. I think I understand you a little better now.
Actually, I doubt that any Hillary supporter flatters themselves into believing that they could do anything to "convince" any of Bernie's fans to vote for Hillary instead. (And this is especially true with the self-declared "Bernie-or-Bust" variety... and even those who hint-at, or threaten to be on of the "Bernie-or-Bust" team.)
I wouldn't know anything about that. Perhaps it would be best to address whatever grievances you have with whoever operates the other website, or with its participants. (Or, not ... just go ahead and hate on me instead. I suppose my account makes an easy target for you to vent your frustrations about that web site.)
Really? Wow! Who knew that I was so influential?
You know ... it's not everyone who's honest enough to admit that anonymous strangers on a discussion board are their biggest influence and main reason for not voting for the Democratic nominee. It's interesting to learn that for some people, getting revenge (for whatever they think it's worth) is the most important thing.
So here's a hearty pat on the back and a tip of the hat! Good for you, Jeff! It's important to have priorities, and I'm pleased as punch that you've identified yours. Congratulations!
That's entirely up to you. Do as you please. Justify it as you need to. If it makes you feel better, then that's all that matters, isn't it? It's perfectly fine.
...
Or you planning to make a sock after this account becomes too toxic?
Why should I care one way or the other? (And, come to think of it ... why should you care, or wonder, or worry?) But, let me go ahead and clue you in ... I don't care.
I don't take the things people say around here seriously or personally. I keep it all in perspective. You're an anonymous stranger to me, the same way that I'm an anonymous stranger to you.
theislander
(35 posts)*click*
riversedge
(70,311 posts)Meanwhile, NH is up for grabs.
Tweet:
Sharon Chabot ?@nhdogmom Dec 12
For Bernie Sanders, it's New Hampshire or bust http://on.msnbc.com/1Y55mKV via @msnbc #Hillary2016 #WeekOfAction #ImWithHer
............Sanders campaign is already preparing for that critical week between the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary, planning to flood the state with surrogates and celebrity endorsers.
In the last Democratic primary in 2008, 17% of voters said they made a decision on the day they went to the polls, while 31% said they decided in the final week, according to exit polls.
But polling is notoriously difficult in the state, which has a large number of independents who can vote in either partys primary. And since Sanders is especially strong among those not aligned voters, he risks losing a chunk of supporters who might chose to vote in the more competitive Republican primary.
One factor neither campaign seems particularly worried about is Martin OMalley, the longshot candidate currently polling at 1% who has staked his hopes to Iowa. Hes not a factor, Barnes shrugged............
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Following up loses in IA and NH with a plastering in SC would be the end.
If he wins NH, maybe he lasts to super tuesday.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)NT
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)If he's not actually trying to win the nomination, he can continue to campaign on his issues until the Convention; much like Jerry Brown in 1992.
Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)...he'll keep running to campaign against wealth inequality.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)I pretty much view him as weak now with no hope to win. Nice guy but not a political fighter. Making friends and playing nice doesn't work when you're trialing by 20-30 points.
Still crossing my fingers but yeah, I gave up when I saw the apologetic, conciliatory tone his campaign set.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I'll take Bernie's problem over Hillary's any day of the week .