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Historic NY

(37,451 posts)
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:04 PM Dec 2015

Iowa PPP polling Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7%

On the Democratic sideIowa PPP polling Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7% Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-edges-cruz-in-iowa-his-supporters-think-japanese-internment-was-good-clinton-still-well-ahead-.html

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Iowa PPP polling Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7% (Original Post) Historic NY Dec 2015 OP
HRC has a higher favorable rating than Bernie!? book_worm Dec 2015 #1
The way a poll would work in Iowa is to ask voters who literally are going to caucus all day yeoman6987 Dec 2015 #7
Awesome!!! workinclasszero Dec 2015 #2
PPP - Pay to Play Polling. LOL JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #3
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #4
Difficult to say JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #8
We know that because those polling orgs announce when sufrommich Dec 2015 #10
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #11
Someone pays for all the polls its called business? Historic NY Dec 2015 #31
Don't like the poll numbers, kill the messenger. LOL! demosincebirth Dec 2015 #6
Hey, they took money from Hillary's campaign before; they ruined their own reputation. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #9
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #12
We know CNN expects to make a great deal of money from Hillary, but... JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #13
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #14
This is not about me liking or disliking any particular poll JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #19
Polling firms are a business upaloopa Dec 2015 #28
What pollster has Sanders hired? NCTraveler Dec 2015 #29
So, when Sanders hires a polling company--and takes his money, is that company's reputation ruined? riversedge Dec 2015 #34
Bernie supporters throw all polling under the bus unless it's favorable for sanders FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #35
Iowans know Bernie Chitown Kev Dec 2015 #5
Kinda meaningless without knowing who was called or what they were asked. Scuba Dec 2015 #15
They called IA voters and asked him whom they will be voting for. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #21
And how is "voters" defined? Scuba Dec 2015 #22
Mr. or Ms. Scuba, do you plan to vote in the Iowa caucus? DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #23
That's not relavent. What is relavent is ... Scuba Dec 2015 #25
Here is a link to aggregate polling. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #26
That's OK; it's pretty clear why you don't want to answer. Scuba Dec 2015 #30
I supplied you with a veritable potpourri of polls that employ a myriad of methodologies DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #32
Consistent upward climb since mid-September... brooklynite Dec 2015 #16
Caught me Godhumor Dec 2015 #17
That trend workinclasszero Dec 2015 #18
Love it! <3 NurseJackie Dec 2015 #20
Nice! ismnotwasm Dec 2015 #24
IOWA 12/15 PPP poll: Clinton > Sanders w/ men 15pts; liberals 19pts**; women 21pts; moderates 22pts riversedge Dec 2015 #27
Maybe once the voters finally find out who Bernie is his numbers giftedgirl77 Dec 2015 #33
If this holds up, it's going to be a very short primary. Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #36
 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
7. The way a poll would work in Iowa is to ask voters who literally are going to caucus all day
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:23 PM
Dec 2015

I think they get about 20 percent of the voters who actually do this because of the time commitment. Not saying this poll is wrong but it really is hard to predict Iowa.

Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #3)

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
8. Difficult to say
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:24 PM
Dec 2015

We know that some polls they run are paid for by Hillary's superPAC. That introduces trust issues.

Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #8)

Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #9)

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
13. We know CNN expects to make a great deal of money from Hillary, but...
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:36 PM
Dec 2015

I was only speaking of this poll.

Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #13)

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
19. This is not about me liking or disliking any particular poll
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:52 PM
Dec 2015

This is me being wary of polling companies which have recently accepted money from a campaign. Pretty simple.

I don't take well to calls for 'yes or no' questions as if I were in a court of law, so have a good day.

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
28. Polling firms are a business
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:42 PM
Dec 2015

They offer a service. People pay for the service. Those people want to find out were things stand. If polls were not scientific, if they didn't follow best practiced the results would be worthless.

riversedge

(70,242 posts)
34. So, when Sanders hires a polling company--and takes his money, is that company's reputation ruined?
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:48 PM
Dec 2015

Just asking-is that how it works?

FloridaBlues

(4,008 posts)
35. Bernie supporters throw all polling under the bus unless it's favorable for sanders
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 02:05 PM
Dec 2015

Has anyone noticed that for past 3 months?

 

Scuba

(53,475 posts)
25. That's not relavent. What is relavent is ...
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:31 PM
Dec 2015

... the definition of "voters" in this poll.

For example, if it only included people who voted in 2008 and 2012, then there's a whole bunch of "voters" who were excluded.

But then you knew that before you tried to avoid answering.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
26. Here is a link to aggregate polling.
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:37 PM
Dec 2015

Here is a link to aggregate polling. It contains a veritable potpourri of polls that apply a a panoply of methodologies:


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary


Perhaps there is a poll that meets the level of scientific scrutiny you have established.


I wish I could be of more assistance.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
32. I supplied you with a veritable potpourri of polls that employ a myriad of methodologies
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:45 PM
Dec 2015

I supplied you with a veritable potpourri of polls that employ a myriad of methodologies:




http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary


If you find them all wanting and believe a systematic failure in random sample polling exists there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

I did answer it. Pollsters employ a veritable panoply of methodologies to divine who will vote in the contest they are measuring.

brooklynite

(94,598 posts)
16. Consistent upward climb since mid-September...
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:44 PM
Dec 2015


..unless, someone is paying HuffPo to rig the aggregation algorithm...

riversedge

(70,242 posts)
27. IOWA 12/15 PPP poll: Clinton > Sanders w/ men 15pts; liberals 19pts**; women 21pts; moderates 22pts
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:39 PM
Dec 2015

HILLARY AND TERM HAVE THE MOJO


IOWA 12/15 PPP poll: Clinton > Sanders w/ men 15pts; liberals 19pts**; women 21pts; moderates 22pts

PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls 1h1 hour ago

Clinton leads Sanders in Iowa by 15 pts with men, 19 pts with liberals, 21 pts with women, 22 pts with moderates: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-edges-cruz-in-iowa-his-supporters-think-japanese-internment-was-good-clinton-still-well-ahead-.html


Bleacher Creature

(11,257 posts)
36. If this holds up, it's going to be a very short primary.
Tue Dec 15, 2015, 02:26 PM
Dec 2015

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not claiming that Clinton is "inevitable'" nor am I claiming that it's "her turn." I realize full well that there is still a long way to go and that primary elections can turn quickly.

That said, PPP is a well respected pollster. Not only that, we generally know that Clinton has the far better field team in IA, and has hopefully learned from 2008 the importance of understanding the esoteric caucus rules.

Again, there's a long way to go, but a blowout in IA is a real possibility. If that happens, Sanders needs NH just to stay in the race, because SC is also going to be a blowout. And then, he needs to deal with the fact the the demographics of the Super Tuesday states heavily favor Clinton.

I'm not predicting anything yet, but I won't be surprised if this is all over within a month of IA.

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