2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew poll: Clinton -11% (37% favorable; 48% unfavorable) Sanders +5% (36% favorable; 31% unfavorable)
Sanders has a better net favorability rating than any of the candidates polled:
+5 - Sanders
+3 - Rubio
+1 - Carson
- 2 - Obama
-10 - Cruz
-11 - Clinton
-22 - Jeb!
-32 - Trump
Here is a link.
Noticeably, regardless of whether you look at this new poll or the aggregation of previous live phone polling, Sanders and Clinton have very similar favorability numbers, but her unfavorability numbers are much worse, and Sanders' favorable numbers are trending up while Clinton's are trending down (both in terms of her favorable numbers falling and her net negative favorable/unfavorable gap widening). Here is a graph of the live phone polling on the topic:
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)...as low as they rate congress as a whole.
Hepburn
(21,054 posts)Only Jebbie and tRump are worse? Congrats, Hillary, on scarping the bottom of the barrel.
Duval
(4,280 posts)Rarely does Bernie get mentioned, but he will eventually, and when more hear him, his numbers will soar.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)don't they?
If Sanders wants some of her negative publicity he is welcome to some....
Duval
(4,280 posts)I watch a couple of MSNBC in the evenings, when I watch the news. Which media is going negative on her? And I have no doubt at all that our Corporate Media will eventually bash Sanders. After all, he wants to change things there.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you
favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK: ) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY
ONE ANSWER.)
Clinton - 56% (Clinton +19)
Sanders - 37%
O'Malley - 4%
Sid
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you
favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK: ) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY
ONE ANSWER.)
Clinton - 56% (Clinton +19)
Sanders - 37%
O'Malley - 4%
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
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Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)who are most likely to split their ticket, and a minority within their own party.
They are polarizing, which is poison for a general election but not necessarily bad for a primary.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #6)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #10)
Name removed Message auto-removed
jeff47
(26,549 posts)They are "ahead" among likely primary voters. Independents or people who fall outside the poll's likely voter model are not counted when asking "who are you going to vote for?".
Favorability is asked of a broader pool of respondents.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Just so you should know. So if they are not being counted, clearly one third of voters are yet to be counted.
So let's abstain from these "scientific" polls, and wait for the only poll that means anything. That would be Primary Day.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Details vary by poll, obviously.
Yep, I'm generally not responding in the deluge of posts about polls. Frequently digging into the details reveals interesting details...like excluding everyone under 26.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)JVS
(61,935 posts)brooklynite
(94,594 posts)And, thinking about people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the next
Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you
favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY
ONE ANSWER.)
Clinton: 56
Sanders: 37
O'Malley: 4
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)campaigned to a significant extent.
In terms of horse race polling, I'm more focused on live phone polling in Iowa and New Hampshire.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)from QQQ says that Hillary has 99%, O'Malley 1% and Sanders 0%. Of course it is a scientific poll, taken of 350 likely voters on both cell phones and land lines. The margin of error is therefore 1%.
sarcasm intended.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)And it certainly isn't PPP.
brooklynite
(94,594 posts)...even with momentum from an unlikely win in Iowa, he'll have short windows of opportunity in SC and NV, much less the ten States on Super Tuesday. Part of the necessary qualifications for a good candidate is the ability to manage a national campaign; not camp out in 1-2 States and hope for a bounce.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)You got Bernies strategy all figured out.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Perhaps he is just not as popular as some people think...
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)After nearly 30 years in Congress and 7 months of campaigning.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)even IF he were to win....he sure doesn't have many friends in the House or Senate....he would be on his own.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)it is interesting that you ignore the change in the unfavorable numbers of Clinton and Sanders -- just by eyeballing the graphs, it is obvious that her unfavorables have been near constant since mid October, his seem to be rising at slightly higher rate than his favorables -- while the gap is positive for the entire period, it is shrinking. This means for both Democrats, the metric of looking at the difference between Favorable and unfavorable is getting gradually worse.
Looking at each of the Republican candidates on Pollingreport.com -- they are all getting worse on this metric as well.
That may say something about our sick media. What seems clear is that who ever wins may have less (if any) honeymoon than any past President. We could have a President who STARTS with negative favorability.
comradebillyboy
(10,154 posts)Senator Sanders has not been on the receiving end of political attacks from either party. If he was widely viewed as a real contender the gloves would come off and Bernie would be subject to some withering attacks and his net favorability would certainly suffer.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)No matter who are candidate is there will be attacks - some fair based on positions the person took or things actually done , some fact based, but distorted, and some made up out of whole cloth.
Hillary Clinton is not immune to any of these attacks. She has both a major advantage that many people already think they know her well, but at the same time some major - already accepted by many - areas where she can be attacked. In this case, consider that Dan Quayle's misspelling resonated because there already was believe that he was not all that smart. Consider how much easier fighting the SBVT liars would have been if the entire nation knew Kerry as well as Massachusetts did - as it was even though by November, people who would have considered Kerry knew they were lying, but it did made it harder for Kerry to use his guys' endorsements of his character even as a young man, which were extremely convincing and moving.
On the other hand, the two biggest problems might be that she does not have high scores for honesty and there is a reputation of at least going to the edge on what is ethical. That people know her well would protect her from accusations that people would consider aren't how they see her. The problem is that even unfair accusations - or ones like this one might ultimately be that someone did use their relationship to her to get their request seen. Where there may be a problem would be if in addition to getting it seen -- it is then processed tagged as HRC wants this done. The former probably happens all the time; the latter is unethical.
okasha
(11,573 posts)is necessarily a predictor of voting behavior. No matter who makes comforting noises, the winner in a time of crisis will be the candidate perceived as the meanest, toughest (son of a) bitch in a world full of mean, tough (SO)B's. I'm not voting for a mommy or perceived good father figure. I want someone who can stand down the Republicans, Putin, Xi and ISIS all in a day's work and continue to give them hell the next day and the next.
Gene McCarthy. LBJ.
'Nuff said?
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)majority of the country does not really like, trust or approve of.
While if Bernie wins, we will have a president, a Democratic president for sure, that most of the country approves of, trusts, and likes.
That's why Bernie would be our best bet for the candidate in 2016. People like him. People trust him. People approve him. ...... in larger numbers than any other candidate.
And that is without as many people knowing Bernie as well as they do Hillary or Ted Cruz for example.
Bernie is our best bet for not just winning the general election in 2016 but also FOR HAVING A COUNTRY THAT HAS THE PRESIDENT'S BACK AND WILL WORK WITH HIM. BERNIE IS OUR BEST BET FOR HAVING A PRESIDENT WHO CAN BRING US TOGETHER BECAUSE WE TRUST, LIKE AND APPROVE OF HIM IN LARGER NUMBERS THAN ANY OTHER CANDIDATE.
And in addition to his wise views on the issues, that is why I am supporting Bernie Sanders.
As the Hillary supporters like to remind us, a president can only get things done if he gets Congress to work with him. We haven't had that situation for a long time -- 9/11 maybe -- but that was a crisis and did not last long.
One of the reasons that Congress does not back the president is that the people don't back him in large enough numbers, don't trust or like him in large enough numbers, to put pressure on Congress to go along with the president.
That people just simply like Bernie more than the other candidates could help us turn that historical trend around.
Congress and the president will never work together perfectly. They shouldn't. What is the point in checks and balances if the Congress just backs everything the president wants?
But, the candidate who is best known in Congress right now is BERNIE SANDERS. Bernie has been their since the early 1990s. He knows the players in Congress. No other candidate has the experience working within Congress, no other candidate knows the procedures and personalities in Congress, no other candidate can possibly be as effective in working with Congress as Bernie and may I add, his staff and supporters.
Bernie is, based on these polls and his vast experience and long service in Congrress (plus his executive experience as mayor of Burlington, Vt.) THE VERY BEST CANDIDATE FOR THE PRESIDENCY THAT WE HAVE HAD IN MY LIFETIME.
He has the most relevant experience, the best track record in winning elections, a memorable personality, good character, trustworthiness, determination, a love of the American people, a sense of justice and fairness, a willingness to stick up for the underdog, understanding of the economic crisis we are in as a nation, straightforwardness that we need in dealing with foreign leaders, COMMON SENSE about war and peace (sees beyond the momentary crisis) and just everything we need in a president right now.
Feel the Bern! Cause the Bern is what is best for our country.
I trust Bernie Sanders. I like Bernie Sanders. I approve of Bernie Sanders.
Bernie is best for America.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)doesn't sound like a winning strategy to me.
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)Feel the Bern
Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Historic NY
(37,450 posts)HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15564 -- page 12
December 2015 (12/14/15 PM Release) NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Q17 And, thinking about people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the next
Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you
favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY
ONE ANSWER.)
12/15 10/25-29/15 10/15-18/15 9/15 7/15 6/15
Hillary Clinton ........................56 62 58 53 59 75
Bernie Sanders ..................... 37 31 33 38 25 15
Martin OMalley.......................4 3 1 1 3 2
Bradical79
(4,490 posts)It's an uphill battle against big money and name recognition, but still within striking distance. Only about a 10% swing needed to even things out.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Always heard a poor excuse is better than no excuse....guess that is true after all!
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)Who would ever think "name recognition" has any advantages over a competitor!
Just ask Kraft, or Kelloggs, or McDonalds. So silly
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)that after 37 yrs....someone would still NOT have any...
was he hiding in the bathroom and under his desk?
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)Why didn't he apply for the position of First Lady too!
No..he had to just quietly go about his business,
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernie-gets-it-done-sanders-record-pushing-through-major-reforms-will-surprise-you
Bernie Gets It Done: Sanders' Record of Pushing Through Major Reforms Will Surprise You
Here are a few examples of the amendments Sanders passed by building unusual but effective coalitions:
Corporate Crime Accountability (February 1995): A Sanders amendment to the Victims Justice Act of 1995 required offenders who are convicted of fraud and other white-collar crimes to give notice to victims and other persons in cases where there are multiple victims eligible to receive restitution.
Saving Money, for Colleges and Taxpayers (April 1998): In an amendment to H.R. 6, the Higher Education Amendments of 1998, Sanders made a change to the law that allowed the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education to make competitive grants available to colleges and universities that cooperated to reduce costs through joint purchases of goods and services.
Holding IRS Accountable, Protecting Pensions (July 2002): Sanders' amendment to the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act of 2003 stopped the IRS from being able to use funds that violate current pension age discrimination laws. Although he faced stiff GOP opposition, his amendment still succeeded along a 308 to 121 vote.
Expanding Free Health Care (November 2001): You wouldn't think Republicans would agree to an expansion of funds for community health centers, which provide some free services. But Sanders was able to win a $100 million increase in funding with an amendment.
Getting Tough On Child Labor (July 2001): A Sanders amendment to the general appropriations bill prohibited the importation of goods made with child labor.
Increasing Funding for Heating for the Poor (September 2004): Sanders won a $22 million increase for the low-income home energy assistance program and related weatherization assistance program.
Fighting Corporate Welfare and Protecting Against Nuclear Disasters (June 2005): A Sanders amendment brought together a bipartisan coalition that outnumbered a bipartisan coalition on the other side to successfully prohibit the Export-Import Bank from providing loans for nuclear projects in China.
Once Sanders made it to the Senate in 2006, his ability to use amendments to advance a progressive agenda was empowered. Here are some of the amendments he passed in the Senate:
Greening the U.S. Government (June 2007): A Sanders amendment made a change to the law so at least 30 percent of the hot water demand in newer federal buildings is provided through solar water heaters.
Protecting Our Troops (October 2007): Sanders used an amendment to win $10 million for operation and maintenance of the Army National Guard, which had been stretched thin and overextended by the war in Iraq.
Restricting the Bailout to Protect U.S. Workers (Feburary 2009): A Sanders amendment required the banking bailout to utilize stricter H-1B hiring standards to ensure bailout funds weren't used to displace American workers.
Helping Veterans' Kids (July 2009): A Sanders amendment required the Comptroller General to put together comprehensive reporting on financial assistance for child care available to parents in the Armed Forces.
Exposing Corruption in the Military-Industrial Complex (November 2012): A Sanders amendment required public availability of the database of senior Department officials seeking employment with defense contractors an important step toward transparency that revealed the corruption of the revolving door in action.
Support for Treating Autism in Military Health Care: Sanders worked with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) to pass an amendment by a vote of 66-29 ensuring that the military's TRICARE system would be able to treat autism.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Is her ONLY claim to fame...
How about the fact that she saw 11 pieces of legislation pass in only 8 yrs
Or better yet....read her entire record.
http://ontheissues.org/hillary_clinton.htm
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)Im a progressive, but Im a progressive that likes to get things done, said Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the first primary debate. Nevermind that the things Clinton helped get done the disastrous Iraq war, the Patriot Act should have never been done, the purpose of this jab was twofold:
Leverage her status as a Washington insider to present herself to voters as a pragmatist uniquely qualified to get things done as president.
Draw a contrast between herself and her main rival, independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who she insinuated is a progressive that does not get things done.
This line of attack works because it plays on a common stereotype that socialists and progressives are more interested in ideological purity than in making real-world progress, but when we compare the first eight years of their respective Senate legislative records, it turns out Sanders got more meaningful legislation done than Clinton.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)she was for 8 yrs...
nice try....epic fail
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)I guess moving the goal posts you can always win right?
Name recognition...As if being first lady and also working on policy within the administration, like heath insurance, for two terms with one of the most popular Presidents, who was involved in a scandal that also affected her and her reactions in the media, not to mention her years as Secretary of State..... was not a significant argument for people knowing about her more than Sanders.
Then the goalposts change and its all about her great accomplishments in the Senate when its pointed out how much more Sanders has done, and NOT done that is harmful as Clinton has done with her Iraq vote..
The goalposts change again and its now that she didn't have the same time slogging away for years in the Senate (instead of getting a free bump into the political sphere by becoming first lady through no effort of her own). So you ridicule Sanders for not being popular despite all those years quietly fighting for progressive values in the Senate, but crow about Hillary being the better choice because she stumbled into fame and the center of political spectacle, even though she accomplished less.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)11 successful pieces of legislation in just 8 years.
Whatchoo got?
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Is that what the '"cool kids" call that these days?
okasha
(11,573 posts)is that he is endorsed by only 2 Congressional colleagues. I've sat on more hiring committees than I care to remember, and a lack of recommendations from co-workers is damning. It's a strong, strong signal that an applicant doesn't work well with peers.
Bradical79
(4,490 posts)Name recognition is important in the real world. Seems kind of stupid to deny that's a real thing. If we want to talk about poor excuses, we could always head over into one of the threads about Hillary Clinton's well documented flip-flopping. Most of you with Hillary supporter tags can't even be bothered with poor excuses.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)and no name recognition....was he under a rock?
Bradical79
(4,490 posts)if we're talking about name recognition across all 50 states. Just being a Senator doesn't make one famous the way being first lady or Secretary of State does. How many Senators have country wide mainstream fame without
1. Running for president already or holding another high profile national position previously
2. Being involved in a major scandal of some sort
or 3. Being a part of a political dynasty.
Throw in the way the media generally covers politics, and there's little doubt that Hillary Clinton is always going to have a recognition advantage in any election. It's not necessarily a bad thing.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Or just Vermont?
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Smells like Texas Desperation....
Where is Stevie Ray Vaughn when you need him?