We are going to win in IA

Hillary is going to knockout her opposition in Iowa on the way to total victory on Super Tuesday!

Its all over but the cryin for some folks.

...the caucus campaign season hasn't even peaked.

This poll shows Hillary up by 11; the gold standard of polls, the Iowa poll by Ann Selzer--shows Clinton up by 9, single digits.

I only hope that Hillary supporters continue on with their hubris and spin.

Bernie started out polling at .8 percent in Iowa; Hillary was at 60 percent.

Over time, her numbers have slowly eroded.

After the first debate, we'll see the campaigns kick into high gear. No doubt in my mind that Sanders is going to win this.

Hillary is handing on for dear life. To go from 60 (and ahead by 59.2 percentage points) to a single-digit race--is devastating for Clinton.

She and her staff must be shitting bricks.

the sand in the hourglass is running out!

"hubris and spin"


are you "unskewwing" those polls?

Nate Silver has only given an A+ rating to a few polling firms.

Selzer's firm is one of them.

She has Clinton ahead by 9, with 50 days left in the Iowa caucus campaign.

That's reason for any Bernie supporter to celebrate.

If you want to hang your hat on, and make generalizations--based on these flawed polls that are flawed, be my guest. Most of those polls exclude first-time caucus goers. And there will be a TON of them this time around. Younger voters, who never caucused before, are also excluded. This skews the results in Clinton's favor.

I guess, if you want to salivate over false polls, that's your business.

Those of us who are interested in a reputable, science-based poll that uses methodology that gets it right--rely on Selzer's Iowa Poll.

Feburary 1st is the Iowa caucus.....


and I am NOT hanging my hat on THIS poll alone.....how many do you need?

Her methodology is scientific.

Most of those other polls are so flawed. They're junk.

If you want to know if a poll between Sanders and Hillary is accurate or flawed--Compare it with Ann Selzer's Iowa poll. If they're far off from Selzer's results--ignore the poll. She's just that accurate.

That's all you need to know.

You should Google her. She's only been around for a few years, but her accuracy is astounding. Republicans and Democrats consider her to be practically prescient in predicting races.

I had been waiting for The Iowa Poll, because I wasn't sure where things stood.

She'll release another poll in January. I'll wait for that one too, because so many of the polls that are released are unscientific junk.

OMG....you cannot be serious...

unskewwing...unskewwing...unskewwing!

I'm simply relying on the pollster who has the most accurate and science-based methodology. If Nate Silver gives her an A+ rating; and he only gave three other pollsters that rating--it's obvious that there are a lot of junk polls out there.

It's just nice to have a gold-standard pollster like Ann Selzer. I'm relieved she is out there, so we have some accuracy from a serious, professional pollster who knows what she's doing.

No doubt that both the Hillary and Bernie campaigns were waited patiently for The Iowa Poll to be released.

Yeah right....

and what do those other 3 say?

No wiggle room at the inn....

Just trying to give you the opportunity to "unskew" those polls....

I have seen this tactic before.

Using Lols or emogies to try to get a rise out of people?

*yawn*

Perhaps it was shear mirth.....

Or do you think you are some kind of cut-up?

You really aren't very good at this are you.

Its a "thing"

from 5 to 9 points.

...into the last 50 days of the caucuses. It's not about that middle chunk of time anymore. It's about who can move the needle in the next 50 days.

Sanders campaign went on the back burner in Iowa, after September. I kept asking my husband, "Where in the hell is everyone?" Usually the caucus season is more busy during the fall months.

I'm not sure what the Democratic strategies are, but with only three (and two highly viable Democrats) in the ring, it makes sense for them to conserve resources and have a big push in the final weeks be their strategy.

Many Iowans change their minds or solidify their positions in the final weeks. There will be rallies, events and town halls, Q&As and many surrogates in our state to pitch for their candidates in January. It is crazy. Iowans really plug in during this time. Most people I know attend multiple campaign events and speeches.

Going into this crazy season of the caucus campaign--within 9 points--is excellent for Sanders. I'm very excited.

Counting down....

Very excited. Just saw a video of the Iowa caucuses that someone on DU posted. I am so excited to walk in that room and see what awaits us.

But also, this is a long campaign season. I will be a bit relieved when it is over. Then, the good people of NH can bear the brunt of the stress!

I imagine that January will be the huge, crazy, nutty season of rallies, speeches and campaign events. The media will descend on Iowa and the ground games will be at def-con 1.

This year is a bit different, because the caucuses are in early Feb. Last year, they were in early Jan. The bulk of the 08 campaigning was done in November and early December. This year, early Dec saw a ramp up, but I think all of January will be a big, concentrated push. Not much happens during the holidays in Dec/early Jan.

We'll have the debate this Saturday and then after the holidays--we're off to the races.

The Democratic primary campaigns in Iowa had their initial splash in the summer. Both candidates had rallies and they introduced their campaigns to the state. If you recall, Sanders surged ahead of Clinton. This was when he was doing large-scale rallies with thousands in attendance. He was also over our state, in addition to doing rallies all over the United States that had 20,000 people filling stadiums.

This blitz pumped up Sanders numbers.

Then, from mid-Sept--until last week--the campaigns retracted from these rallies and events. Clinton and Sanders did events in Iowa, but they were campaigning elsewhere and their Iowa campaigns completely downshifted from the summer's full-court press.

So, I am not in the least bit surprised that Sanders didn't gain and Clinton held steady.

But it really doesn't matter, because the shineola hits the fan in Iowa in January. That's when both Sanders and Clinton will do their heaviest of campaigning. I'm betting that Sanders can recapture that lead he had. If he's filling stadiums and has large rallies in Iowa with 10,000 people, that will be very powerful.

No reason that he can't get back to where he was, using the same formula. It worked during the summer.

You keep repeating that...I hope it helps you....but its going to get progressively harder for you as the days,left starts to dwindle...

...so you can understand the dynamics.

This is not simply a clock ticking down.

January will be when the bulk of the excitement and activity happens.

So much is yet to come. It could go either way. It depends on the ground games, on who gets their supporters to the caucuses, and who has the most exciting campaign that lures in supporters.

I believe that Bernie will do a better job of this. However, I get why Clinton supporters think that she will do a better job.

There are so many unknowns at this point. But what is clear, is that the high-campaign season, where Iowans get out and do their research, and attend rallies and really plug into the election--has yet to happen. The cake is baking. It's starting to set up, but the final stages and the bulk of the "bake" has yet to happen.

And anything could happen.

Watch this video from Bloomberg News, of Ann Selzer discussing these Iowa dynamics. She's an expert on the Iowa electorate and she runs the most respected polling outfit that focuses on Iowa elections. Very informative.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2015-11-13/it-s-not-over-for-bernie-sanders-in-iowa-ann-selzer

I can just look at polls.....been to Iowa.....so no thanks...

You may have been to Iowa--but have you ever been to Zombie Burger in the East Village, downtown Des Moines and ordered the "I'm Coming to Get you Barbara" burger?

Seriously delicious.

And who doesn't love zombies?

Hillary is winning there....about all there is to say about that

She could lose both of those homogeneous states and still win 45 states. Not sure Bernie could pull that off.

If Bernie loses Iowa and NH, he's done.

He's the underdog though. She's the "inevitable" candidate.

His task is to usurp her campaign talking points and win those early states, so those are no longer valid talking points.

If he wins Iowa, it's a whole new ballgame.

He's only down by 9 points. Other candidates have overcome those numbers. No reason Bernie won't be able to do it.

He was drawing crowds of 20,000 during the summer, all over the country. Anyone want to guess why he stopped doing those big-venue rallies? He didn't want to peak early. His campaigning events significantly diminished in Iowa. He understands what happens during the last month of the caucus cycle. This is when Iowans make up their minds and attend rallies and events. Bernie saw the crowds in the summer and he knows what his full-blown campaign will look like in Iowa. 10,000+ crowds. Overwhelming support.

The optics will be unparalleled. He's waiting to unleash that at the right moment.

It's genius. And surely, he can pick up a few extra points, while Hillary loses a few. She has supporters in Iowa, but the optics will be nothing like Bernie will showcase. He goes up 5, she goes down 5--all bets are off. And it could easily happen.

Didn't Bill Clinton lose Iowa and NH, then won 2 terms.

The only reason that Bill Clinton lost the 1992 Iowa caucuses in 1992 was because Iowa's "favorite son" Tom Harkin (Senator from Iowa) was running for President.

You didn't realize that?

Bill Clinton did go on to win the Iowa caucuses in 1996. He garnered 98 percent of the vote.

its the ONLY defense they have that they can wrap their minds around....they cannot believe that she is just more popular.

It means that more people recognize your name. It means that more people identify you as winning, due to the media propping you up (for nearly a decade) as the Democratic nominee.

It's an interesting strategy. One that Hillary tried in the 2008 primary. It can work, unless another interesting candidate piques the voter's interest.

That support is easily picked off, because it is based not on love of the candidate, but on media memes.

When people really plug in, and they start doing their own research--that shallow support can easily whittle away.

We saw this in 2008 when Hillary came in third in the Iowa caucuses.

And it is happening again in Iowa.

She is apparently very popular among Democrats....cannot fathom what you have against her!

And it apparently makes them delusional

Hillary has been planning to run for over a year. We were Ready for Hillary before the campaign.

Bernie didn't even say he was running until June.

No body is afraid of Bernie

...and she's only ahead by single digits in Iowa, according to one of the most reputable pollsters in the nation.

I wouldn't consider that solid ground on which her campaign is standing.

It's her race to lose, as the candidate who began at 60 percent, running against a candidate with .8 percent.

She's losing more ground. And there's a lot of time left in Iowa.

That leaves 9%. Not all of that will go to Bernie and not all will go to Hillary but you can bet Hillary supporters are committed to her. Bernie does not have any where to pick up support enough to win.

More than 1/3 of her supporters in Iowa indicated in the Iowa Poll, that was released yesterday, that they are not firm in her corner. They reported that they could possibly switch.

So, there's that.

She's not going to get Independents in Iowa. They can't stand her. She's polling at 6 percent nationally with Independents. Independents in Iowa are generally far left or far right. The Independent demographics in Iowa are definitely not in her favor.

Also important to note that Iowa has a semi-open primary. Independents (and Republicans, if they want) can show up the Iowa Democratic caucuses--register on site as Democrats and caucus for the candidate of their choice. Just show up ten minutes before the caucus starts--register as a Dem and you're good to go.

There will be a lot of Independents doing this in Iowa.

Most of the crazy polls (Monmouth, Loras, PPP and a host of other inaccurate polls) do not take this into account.

Seller's Iowa poll sure does though. That's why she's always accurate in Iowa. She knows how to conduct a poll.

all of the polling companies and the polls are all skewed, except for the internet polls. She also controls all the media, after all Rodger Ailes and Maureen Dowd sing her praises all the time. /s

Highly doubtful that these flawed polls are some type of conspiracy.

I just think there are a lot of lazy pollsters out there who do not follow science.

You know the whole, "10 percent of your people do 90 percent of the work" adage? It appears to be the same for pollsters. Most of them are run by lazy people who don't want to take the time to do it right.

And along comes Ann Selzer with her crazy-accurate Iowa poll, and she shows them how it's done.

It's science vs lazy pollsters. Nothing more.

...that showed Clinton up by single digits.

Ann Selzer does the polling for the Iowa poll. She is considered the most accurate pollster in the nation. Nate Silver gave her a very rare A+ rating for her accuracy and methodology.

She's meticulous and she uses a scientific approach to polling. She predicted the exact outcome of the 2008 Iowa caucuses and dozens of other races.

Selzer polled "likely Iowa caucus goers". This way she didn't exclude a good chunk of younger voters, as that horrific Monmoth poll did, and other assorted polls. Those polls, due to their anti-science methodology, exclude first-time caucus goers and young people. The result--wild inaccuracy.

If you want to know if a polling company or organization is legitimate--compare their recent Iowa results with Ann Selzer's Iowa poll. I would say this Quinnipiac poll is pretty close.

Monmoth, Loras, PPP and the others that show Clinton leading by 20 in Iowa used flawed methodologies.

I had been waiting and waiting for Selzer's Iowa poll. She releases another one in a few weeks. I suggest that everyone look to her polls as the gold standard. If you are into accuracy (and not spin and fantasy polls that are garbage) rely on Selzer.

http://iowacaucusproject.org/2015/10/polling-power-j-ann-selzer-and-the-iowa-poll/

support to win. Hillary's supporters are committed so none from there. The uncommitted are in single digits and not all will go to one candidate. Bernie comes up short anyway you cut it.

Another thing not everyone will show up. Older people tend to show up. Hillary leads there.

Last edited Tue Dec 15, 2015, 04:16 PM - Edit history (1)

...caucus goers will show up in droves for Bernie. They are highly motivated.

They showed up in droves for Obama. So, your point about them not showing up is moot.

Young people are highly motivated this year. I've had three Bernie canvassers at my door this season. Zero at my door for Clinton. Young people are working their butts off for Bernie, pretty good indication that they'll be at their caucus sites.

The Iowa caucuses showed record participation last year. Those participants--and more than 1/3 were younger voters--are now older and they will support Bernie. And they will show up.

Must have missed that one...

8/23-8/26: Clinton 37 Sanders 30
10/16-10/19: Clinton 48 Sanders 41
12/7-12/10: Clinton 48 Sanders 39

It's within the MoE, which means the results are the same.

You must be proud.

It's not surprising really. Bernie's been campaigning elsewhere for the most part, and the media has all for forgotten he exists. If these numbers remain the same through January then I'll start worrying.

and if she does so in numbers more than Bernie then she will win.

... or from poll to poll. I know that this is not the type of thing that Bernie's fans are hoping for, but it's definitely news that pleases me.

that Clinton supporters show for millennials' concerns:

::::::::::::::::::::::::::: yawn ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Quite clear. Maybe Bernie will win New Hampshire and Vermont. I don't know. It won't matter.

MineralMan

for voters to turn out on election day to caucus.

Victory.

Great news!

Thank you Janey!

(Kick!)