2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy online polls matter
Online polls are relevant. Why? because they specifically poll those who're actively interested in the topic.
So when the overwhelming majority of viewers for a democratic debate say Bernie won, those are likely voters saying that. That makes online polls meaningful.
Though part of a comment from Hillary supporter: MineralMan, stuck out;
"Most U.S. voters are in no way activists. They just show up and vote on election day. They don't have bumper stickers or yard signs, either. They just go to their polling place and cast their votes."
And you know what? He's absolutely right... the average person doesn't care about politics, expect with perhaps a passing interest, until its time to vote.
This is particularly striking because it means that since the activist portion of the Bernie sanders crowd has been showing up to rallies and participating in online polling... it means that actual support for Bernie is likely to be considerably higher than just those actively participating in political events. The tip-of-the-iceberg... as the saying goes.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)brooklynite
(94,597 posts)Correct! 99% of Sanders supporters don't go to rallies and don't vote in online polls.
They still only represent 30-35% of the Democratic electorate. Therein lies you problem.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)The question is how much higher. Enough for Bernie to outperform is poll numbers by 3-5 points? Sure.
Enough to erase a double digit polling disadvantage? Not likely.
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)I like Sanders but I do not think that he is viable in a general election contest where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend another billion dollars. Money matters in politics and Sanders will not be competitive in a general election contest
KoKo
(84,711 posts)So...all the Koch Money ads will go for naught with those who pulled the plug--large amount of young people and also boomers who are sick of the nonsense on commercial TV.
That's what is missing in the current polls. Also, those who have "Caller I.D." on their landline and only answer cell phone from people or numbers they recognize.
Every major election it gets more difficult for the Recognized Pollsters in tracking down a diverse group of people they can poll.
That's why Internet Polls could become more and more significant going forward.
demwing
(16,916 posts)all the dollar is good for is trying to influence the level of participation. You can do an end run around the money, if you have the right message and an honest messenger.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)But considering how dreadful Bernie's numbers are in the scientific polls from reputable polling organizations, and how dreary his union endorsements are, it makes perfect sense why so many of Bernie's defenders would be so eager to hang all their hopes on online polls.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Bernie draws massive crowds. hillary doesn't.
But everyone's got their own perspective on what's valid and what's not. I thought I'd add my perspective on online polls. Ultimately, polls still don't matter... polls are, at best, a snap shot of a moment in time with specific individuals. Particularly since most pollsters don't share their complete poling methods... which raises questions of legitimacy.