Trump lead Iowa by 20+ points, and now he's 10 behind. Bernie is leading NH by a fair amount and *that* could change.

If the caucus was tomorrow, I'd be more concerned, but Sanders is steadily gaining in Iowa and looks good in New Hampshire, and that's what I'm looking for six weeks out from the caucus and seven weeks before the NH primary.

Quinnipac now has Sanders at 40% and 11 behind Clinton in December.

The DMR had Sanders -5 to Clinton (42-37) in October.
The DMR now has Sanders -9 to Clinton (48-39)


How are either of those "steadily gaining"?



Sid

PPP and the Loras polls have consistently shown Hillary with a larger lead, and considering the DMR is known as the best pollster in the state, I'm apt to believe them instead.

Since mid-September, both Clinton and Sanders have picked up undecided votes at the same pace, and the gap between then has not changes significantly. Clinton continues to be above 50%, which means at a certain point, Sanders will have to find a way to peel votes away from her, or he can't win.

the Benghazi hearing and the Biden announcement.

If you agree that Clinton got a bump (I'd say a huge bump) from the Benghazi hearing and the Biden announcement, then you would notice that any such bump has been eclipsed by Sanders' progress.

If you don't believe that Clinton got a bump from the Benghazi hearing and the Biden announcement, then your mommy should not let you play on the computer,

We'd be hearing that hillary is so far behind that it's laughable.

polling swing than a candidate might get from a good debate or -- in the Republican race -- from a well publicized racist comment).

I'm sure it'll be short.

Mommy didn't toss enough books down into the basement.

I doubt that one can find his way out of mom's basement.

And the longer he doesn't gain, the more he will lose. It's that way with a lot of voters, wanting to be on the winning side and all.

It's looking like he needs a "game change" at this point.

And Sanders is faltering on key issues--when Clinton beats him, two to one, on HEALTH CARE, he's just not bringing it.

I'd be enormously surprised if he wasn't. He's the boy next door, after all. And especially if we regard the contest in a binary fashion. With what we know, to this point, he's up by ten points, give or take.

NH is a bit trickier, though, in some regards, which makes the place difficult to assess. There's a huge pile of flip-flopping independents who decide at the last minute, often, if they're going to bank right or left, depending upon which contest they regard as more interesting.

This year, the GOP contest is the more interesting one, so those Bern-feelers in the middle with no party affiliation might instead choose to use their ballot to praise or bury their favorite candidate on the right. Or maybe not.

If Rand Paul can stay viable long enough to compete in NH, that will not help Sanders at all. If these indy voters decide they want to break to the left, instead, Sanders will probably benefit in a big way.

I think your powers of discernment aren't all that you think they are. You should do more plain-and-simple asking and less 'suspecting' and you'd probably have a better time of it. Just sayin'....

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn-poll-sanders-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-new-hampshire/36878572

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/new-hampshire-takes-clinton-sanders-on-wild-polling-ride-216248

that may vanish (or grow) between today and the actual vote which is indicative of a tight race.

For example, in the past weeks, Cruz has gained more than the current difference between Sanders and Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire and Carson has fallen more than 9%-11% margin on the Democratic side.

A person in Iowa caucuses with one crew...they don't start out on the Sanders team and then say "Oh, to hell with this" and run down the street to join the Rand Paul crew. Battle lines are being drawn--and funny thing about Hillary voters, they STICK. She's loyal, and so are they. They don't make a lot of noise, they go to work, come home, take care of the kids, etc., but they'll show up on election (or caucus) day with Grandma and Aunt Sylvia in tow. Make no mistake. And they won't be moved.

In NH, a Libertarian - leaning poster could be finding a lot to like between Sanders and Rand Paul, and not make up his (it's likely a him) mind until he arrives at the polling place to cast his vote. And, being from NH, he can pick, choose and refuse. A HUGE number of voters in NH love the idea of peeing on the tree, putting their stamp on who might be the eventual nominee. After all, they say John McCain won the GOP nomination through Open Primaries--not through the loyal care and affection of GOP voters. Of course, that's a two - edged sword. Those diehard Republicans didn't love him as well. Or enough.

The Republicans are going to shift. Every time one of those idiots opens their mouths, there's a bit of slop from one to the next. But the Democratic side? It's starting to firm up--it's jello now in IA and will be concrete before you know it. In NH, it will all depend....if a lot of those independent types who flip and flop and "strategically vote" in the primaries decide to exercise their clout, they could come in strong for Sanders and give him one hell of an Open Primary win--but many of his voters won't be with him for the General. McCain found that shit out, too. Alternatively, they could really, REALLY want to goof the GOP and boost up Trump, and vote for him and then go get drunk (Eddie Murphy did a riff about that years ago), wake up and go "Oh shit--he won?" It's hard to know.

Right now, though, I'll take the leading pollsters at their word--they've seen how NH goes before, this ain't their first rodeo. I'm going to assume that Sanders has NH in his pocket pretty much. It's not going to help him come Super Tuesday, though.

If you think this trend is good for Sanders, you must think Clinton is knocking it out of the park in NH.

and the People will prevail. We must get the corruption of big money out of politics. All Democrats should agree with that.

11point lead is not a horse race and not that close ask any candidate who lost by 11 points or if you ran for office that's not a close race
Bernie he was a lot closer or perhaps leading at one point in Iowa not so much anymore.

I'd like to bookmark statistical analysis like yours.

Thanks for posting this reply.

and Sander's supporters from all across the state are heading to Iowa every week to canvas door to door. They will know who every supporter in the state is by the caucus. Hillary may have the wall street money behind her but Bernie has the people.

And he's taller!

The overall trend is stable with Hillary up significantly in Iowa. I don't see anything going to change that trend in next few weeks.