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Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 02:16 PM Sep 2012

Polls from the Past 580 Days

I just wonder how Romney expects to win if

-He has only lead in the polls for 12 of the past 580 days

-He hasn't lead in the polls once in the past 11 months

-His highest level of support was 46.8%, which lasted for one day

-His typical level of support hovers around 43%

-His largest lead over Obama was 0.6 points, which was 12 months ago and only lasted for one day


Doesn't it seem like, if you look at the evidence, this election isn't really that close? Obama has lead 98% of the time over the past 19 months. Is this really going to come down to the wire?


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

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polichick

(37,152 posts)
9. Amazing that the U.S. goes around the world telling others how...
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:57 PM
Sep 2012

...to be a democracy.

It would be nice if we worried more about how our "democracy" is working for us.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
11. Don't think that isn't in their plans
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:13 PM
Sep 2012

I wonder if they just flat out say in meetings "how are our voter suppression plans coming along?"

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
3. Thankfully those laws are being struck down
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 02:32 PM
Sep 2012

Thankfully we have a candidate willing to fight like hell to prevent it

Blue State Bandit

(2,122 posts)
4. They won't all get struck down in time. In the mean time though...
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 03:06 PM
Sep 2012

the damage has already been done. Mass confusion, and resources that need to be shifted to voter education early in the game from the GOTV ground ops in the final days.

We may lose a state or two that fall into that suppressed margin.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
7. Obama could be up by 40 points
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:09 PM
Sep 2012

And slip to 39 points one day and for weeks they would talk about how he is slipping and fizzling out and the passion is gone and blah blah blah.

Really though, a poll comes out that has Obama up by 5 and they call it a tie. Romney gets to 45% one day and he is surging. Obama leads in every swing state and they call the election "a toss up". Obama gives a speech in front of 15,000 people and they say "only 15,000 people". This is why i stopped watching the political "experts" long ago.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
8. I've been poll watching since August last year
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:55 PM
Sep 2012

I haven't seen Romney ahead in all that time by a significant margin or at all. I think maybe he was ahead in some of the right leaning polls, but never a good lead when they have all been averaged together. Romney has never been ahead in the EV vote which is the one I take into consideration a lot more. It is possible that Romney could win the popular vote but not the EV. I don't think he will win either. I think the margin of win for Obama is going to look a lot like when he won against McCain. It should be by a wider margin though considering McCain is a lot more likable than Romney, but I don't care about the win margin, for our future we must win.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
10. It is possible
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:04 PM
Sep 2012

They keep talking about how "close" this election is yet for most of the summer and into the fall of 2008, Obama was ahead of McCain by similar margins. It was only after people started paying attention in September that he really started to pull ahead. I don't buy that this election is going to come down to the wire.

Marsala

(2,090 posts)
12. It's definitely possible that Obama is starting to break away
Sat Sep 8, 2012, 08:19 PM
Sep 2012

If Democrats become more engaged and likely to vote, his lead will widen significantly.

My guess is that Obama will win by 3-5%. Close, but not that close.

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