2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDemocrats’ chances of retaking the House improve
Democrats have been saying for a long time that the House could be in play in 2012, and now some Republicans are starting to join them.
For Democrats to take 25 seats, they will need a wave, former congressman Tom Davis wrote in an op-ed in The Hill recently. Continued polarization and obstruction could create such a wave.
Former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele agreed that keeping the majority isnt a done deal: It could be very, very hard.
And last week, a member of the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board opined that the GOP majority could be in jeopardy if Republicans dont make it a priority.
More: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/democrats-chances-of-retaking-the-house-improve/2012/02/06/gIQAIF6buQ_blog.html
Gives reasons both why and why its unlikely for the House to flip.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)I can't say whether we will have a majority of Democrats, but Democrats will, overall win seats.
The economy is picking up slightly.
Romney is a greedy job-killer. And by November, working Americans will see him and the Republican Party as prime examples of what has gone wrong in America.
Gingrich has little chance for the Republican nomination. The harder he struggles for the nomination, the more helpless and hapless and foolish he looks. No way will any House seats attach to his coat-tails in the outside chance he is nominated. Republicans, especially those with petty little minds and a lot of hate in their hearts, may like Gingrich, but he annoys other people.
For all his faults, and although I do not agree with some of his actions, Obama and his family are the kinds of folks you would invite for Thanksgiving dinner. And that is what the election will be about this year. Who would you like to invite to Thanksgiving dinner? Who would feel comfortable and make you, the voter, feel comfortable about the dishes, food and atmosphere at your Thanksgiving table.
As he enters his second term, I think Obama will carry a lot of Democratic Representatives and Senators into Congress with him. His first four years have not been easy, but people feel very comfortable with him. He is not a rich snob. He is not an unstable loon. Obama is dependable and sincere, and that is what people are looking for this year.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)I think the Thanksgiving Dinner analogy is a really good one.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)You just about said it all right there!
SG
Lucky Luciano
(11,257 posts)Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)House and Senate race in EVERY state.
If GOP turnout is low and Dem turn out is high (and/or if the 'voting machines' screw up) then we could end up with tons of DEMOCRATIC House Reps and Senators
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)...that voting machine screw-ups favor the Republicans - courtesy of Diebold - man I haven't seen Diebold mention on DU in like months. It's considering how that used to be a daily topic.
harmonicon
(12,008 posts)However, as you may well have noticed, the duration of outrage/excitement on DU doesn't last too long on any one topic. BP oil spill? Doesn't mean shit anymore. Fukushima? meh. Libya? Fuck, people are running scared from their enthusiasm for that. Diebold is something like 940 outrage cycles ago.
I must have missed that. The lack of outrage over the BP oil spill kills me, it's one of the reasons I'm kinda wondering what the heck Team Obama is thinking in not making environmentalism an election issue. Same with Fukushima. I for one am still standing tall for intervention in Libya as are several others who were supportive.
Oh DU outrage cycles...
Left Coast2020
(2,397 posts)I'm really pissed at him for allowing FAA bill to eliminate Union organizing ability. Really wish he would go away.
See last nights Ed Show and you'll know what I'm talking about.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Go ahead, make my day. ~ Clint Eastwood.
As if I need to tell anyone who said that first!
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)But not until we get Osama bin Laden!!!
Obama3_16
(157 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)If they arent worried they are either clueless or ignorant or both.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)1. Voter registration and ID laws that will keep millions of folks at home and away from the ballot.
2. Citizens United's unlimited money in which Obama may be able to compete with, but individual Democratic members of Congress may not be able to combat.
denem
(11,045 posts)Ask Sarah!
Showrunner
(23 posts)But there's a lot of road between here and there. Does set up an interesting mid-term though. Hurry, Hurry, Hurry...This 3-Ringer Ain't Done Yet! Thoughts at 3 A.M. http://thoughtsatthreeam.blogspot.com/?spref=tw
kemah
(276 posts)We need to simplify the message. And the house will flip. The weakest incumbents in any election are freshmen house members. They have only being in politics for less than two years. They will now have to defend the votes they have taken and actions they have not initiated to their constituents. It is easy to run with slogans and platitudes. But to actually deliver services is something else.
I live in Ron Paul's district, it never fails to amaze me that they vote to cut government spending but during Hurricanes Ike and Rita, they all lined up to get that evil socialist FEMA money. The GOP is for cutting spending but yet they receive Medicare, SS, hover rounds paid for by medicare, get FEMA money. I always bring that up and tell them to get that tax cut, that will pay for the damages to your homes.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)It's probably a good thing Ron Paul talks out of both sides of his mouth on the role of government.
AutumnFae
(1 post)It's been shown from everything to unions to abortions that Americans are having new thoughts on conservatives and progressives
Botany
(70,508 posts).... have been doing such as trying to tank the economy so the middle class
hurts even worse w/ the hope that they will blame Obama and the Democrats
for their suffering. And how they care more about the rich than the middle class
and the poor.
Eric Cantor is the face of contempt for the middle class.
My 2010 Congress Critter and former bank lobbyist, Steve Stivers.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Not to mention the fact that many of these blue dogs don't don't have the guts to fight and would prefer retirement to actually facing a tough re-election contest.