2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate just updated 538. You are gonna love the Now-Cast picture! end of bounce? Nope!
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
C_U_L8R
(45,025 posts)I like it very much.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,026 posts)abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)If only I could go to the link and click.
I used up my Nate for September.
mucifer
(23,576 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,026 posts)the right - at least I can!
Aviation Pro
(12,202 posts)....the Times allows links to go through.
mucifer
(23,576 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)If Warren can beat Brown (up in the air right now) then I think the Senate is safe.
Bill Nelson appears to be out of the woods in Florida, and I think McCaskill will end up beating Akin.
Kaine will probably pull it out in VA.
Heinrich appears to be solid in NM.
I think Baldwin will unfortunately have trouble winning in WI against Thompson, but that could improve too.
ND is a question mark as is MT.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)mucifer
(23,576 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)We're assuming that Angus King is going to caucus with the Democrats. : )
Hopefully we don't get a surprise and he goes to the other side.
Most seem to think he leans left.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Ebadlun
(336 posts)Also anti-filibuster, so hopefully he'll support a few cloture votes on principal.
central scrutinizer
(11,665 posts)Tnliberallee
(59 posts)LOVE THIS
calimary
(81,527 posts)I love this too, BUT - let's NOT get complacent!!!! We don't have this one locked up yet. DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!!! Remember what Mad-Eye Moody told Harry Potter:
"CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!!!!!"
Point being: Do NOT lull yourself into letting down your guard, and slack off working for this as though your life depended on it. This ISN'T a done deal yet.
Now get to work.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/245671301094727680
rurallib
(62,465 posts)call him "Mr. Zero!"
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Politico has updated their 2012 Swing States map tonight.
Obama is 100 EV ahead of Romney (319 vs 219)
Obama leads in all swing states except Virginia and North Carolina. (They may have Virginia in Romney's column because of the controversial Gravis poll I posted earlier). If better polling comes out for Virginia with Obama ahead, that may shift blue as well.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/
Stardust
(3,894 posts)from Romney in Virginia.
<--- he's yelling O-ba-ma!
jillan
(39,451 posts)a spanking!!
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,047 posts)flamingdem
(39,332 posts)so much we don't know about Willard!
Generic Brad
(14,276 posts)Is at at 330 electoral votes or 350?
You never give mercy to a Republican.
You should know that.
Rule #1 is to never trust a Republican or underestimate the extent one will go in order to win. Never remove your boot from a Republican's backside.
indie_voter
(1,999 posts)I'd love to see an old fashioned drubbing.
calimary
(81,527 posts)Show them exactly as much mercy as they show us.
And we all know how much THAT is. Hint: It matches romney's approval rating with blacks.
Taste of their own medicine. See how they like it. And call it KARMA.
David in Canada
(512 posts)Many people don't realise that margins of victory matter.
Remember, FDR got Social Security passed in 1937 after winning 60+% of the popular vote and crushing Alf Landon like a bug 523-8 in the electoral college.
LBJ got most of his Great Society reforms passed after winning 61% of the popular vote and walloping Bary Goldwater 486-52 in the electoral college.
Ronald Reagan had a big upper hand in negotiations with Tip O'Neill with his 58% victory and 525-13 ass kicking of Walter Mondale.
The bigger the margin, the bigger the mandate. Near 60% victories are nigh impossible in this polarised environment but all progressive Americans should work for Obama to get over 55% of the popular vote and Romney's electoral college count to be mired in double digits. Even if your state is heavily Republican and voting Democrat is futile, vote anyway. Every vote for Obama is one more dent in the teabaggers armour.
broadcaster75201
(387 posts)Register. Vote. Run up the score. Then get back to me the day after election day. Then we'll chat.
daybranch
(1,309 posts)These polls are distractions and we have to stay old school- knock on doors, phonebank, talk to neighbors, register democratsa etc. We need to win big to get rid of the House Teabaggers in gerrymandered states like Ohio.
I don't think they can win in a fair fight; but, if we let them, the evil GOP bastards can still steal this one!
frazzled
(18,402 posts)Let's not get cocky, or count our chickens before they hatch, or put the wrong juju on all of this and end up with egg all over ourselves.
The remedy is the same: Register. Vote. Run up the score.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)...things get more bleak for Romney. The election is only some 50 odd days away. Everyday that he continues to lag is another day lost. This isn't 6 months out anymore. The odds of him shooting up into the lead are becoming less and less likely. The democratic convention was a week ago Obama shows few signs of his bounce fading. That is not good sign for the GOP. The more time that passes, the more people are going to be locked into the their choice for president and the fewer undecided votes Romney will be able to grab to attempt to close the gap (i read he needs about 80% of remaining undecideds right now to squeak out a win).
Soon we could get to the point where likelihood of him winning is virtually 0%. And that will be very, very soon unless he makes up some major ground in an extremely short amount of time. The way he has been fumbling around lately makes that seem very unlikely.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)Before the conventions, Intrade was 56%. Now it is over 61%
Historic NY
(37,454 posts)we must not sit on our laurels.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,047 posts)Politicub
(12,165 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,026 posts)DemKittyNC
(743 posts)I can't wait to show my republican parents this. Their little repug minds are going to explode.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)Seriously, this Romney fella is really making a bad name for himself
I hope he has a day job to fall back on. It looks like Ryan is trying to save his earlier day job by putting ads back up for Congress. Guess he has already figured this thing is over. Poor tike. He was trying so hard to sit at the grown-ups table too.
tsk tsk tsk
Mojambo
(17,422 posts)rsweets
(307 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,047 posts)hfojvt
(37,573 posts)with Wisconsin now likely Republican.
Senator Tommy Thompson.
How can I miss him if he won't go away?
Stardust
(3,894 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Baldwin still has a chance, but it was risky for Herb Kohl to step down in a year like this. I understand he was getting on, but Thompson has huge name recognition and he's ahead of Baldwin in almost all the polls.
It's disappointing because we just lost Russ Feingold 2 years ago. If Feingold had run, he probably would have won, but he didn't seem interested in running this year. I e-mailed him at the beginning of the year hoping he would, but it just wasn't meant to be.
johnlucas
(1,250 posts)It's gonna be a blowout in November.
Anywhere between 10% to 20%.
It will not be close on Election Day, screw what the polls say.
John Lucas
Atypical Liberal
(5,412 posts)Why is that?
Why is it that half the country is so blind to policies not in their best interest? It is depressing.