to losing more ground in congress and if we lucky(?) barely holding on to the White House.

So excuse me for hoping that you are wrong.

And you've been an incredible resource on this board, my dear Godhumor.

Sanders does not win with steady.

that could be seen as reflecting an important change. That wouldn't fit the narrative, at all.

Yeah, no it doesn't matter a bit. Not until every other poll shows that same movement.

That poll is included in December, by the way.

I understand.

Overall, Clinton tops Sanders among registered voters who are Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents 50% to 34%. That's a slightly tighter margin than in late-November, when Clinton led 58% to 30% over Sanders:

But those overall results mask a shift back toward Clinton following the Democratic debate on Saturday night. In interviews conducted before the debate, Sanders ran closer to Clinton, with 37% support to Clinton's 45%. Among those interviewed after the debate, Clinton's lead grew to 60% vs. Sanders' 27%.


http://www.cnn.com/specials/politics/national-politics


It is reasonable to infer the non-white demographics moved accordingly post debate.

The party is going to unify behind Clinton even more than they currently have. I know that seems out there considering how commanding her lead is, but the writing is on the wall. Sanders campaign sees it clear as day.

but we'll still get a better clue once it all starts. Polls are not as reliable these days due to differences in technology and venues.

Great op.

I came upon it when searching for something unrelated, but found it helpful in better understanding how to look at these polls.

Still, I'd like to know if (in your professional opinion) you would consider the info to be accurate? If not, why not? For example, is he putting too much emphasis on some details over others, or is this a pretty good summary overall?


A PRIMER ON PRE-ELECTION POLLS:
Why Different Election Polls Sometimes Have Different Results

Cliff Zukin,
Professor of Public Policy and Political Science Bloustein School of Planning and Policy
& Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University

The views expressed here are solely those of the author
Primary Election Version
December, 2015


INTRODUCTION
Election polls are a special breed among public opinion surveys. They call for more judgments—the art rather than the science of the craft—on the part of the pollster than other types of polls. And this brings into play a host of other reasons why the estimatesof well-established and well done pre-election polls may differ from one another, even when these polls are conducted at a similar point in time.

Also, the polling landscape has changed dramatically, even as recently as two presidential elections ago in 2008. Because of the growth of cell phones, declining response rates and increasing difficulty in determining “likely voters,” I have argued here that election polling has gotten harder to do well, and that 2016 will present election polls with a very challenging environment. This primer is meant to be a guide for journalists, academics, and anyone closely following polls in the 2016 election.

http://www.aapor.org/AAPORKentico/Standards-Ethics/AAPOR-Code-of-Ethics/Election-Polling-AAPOR-2015-primary_cz120215-FINAL.aspx

He goes into the subjects of:

-SAMPLING AND REAL SAMPLING ERROR
-MODES OF SURVEYS
a)Telephone Surveys
b)Cell Phones
c)IVR Surveys—Robo Calling
d)Internet/On-line Polls

-TIMING AND FIELD PROCEDURES
-QUESTION AND WORD ORDERING

-POST-SURVEY ADJUSTMENTS
a)Weighting
b)Likely (Probable) Voters