First look at Market Odds in Iowa (HRC at 80%) and NH (BS at 56%)

About a month out from the first caucus, so it seems like a good time to see where the predictive investors think the early states stand. Going to give them numbers with the variable spread in parentheses (Variable spread being how many points the frontrunner has to lose to the other candidate to get the race to 50-50. And, sorry, I will be ignoring MOM for this exercise, as he is barely registering in either state.)

Current chance to win in Iowa:
HRC - 80%
BS - 19%
Variable spread of 30.5%

Current chance to win in New Hampshire:
BS - 56%
HRC - 43%
Variable spread of 6.5%

Market is currently bullish on Clinton's chances in Iowa but hedging somewhat on Sanders in New Hampshire. My guess is the primary (ha!) reason is that a number of investors aren't certain he can keep his margin if Iowa goes poorly. If he finishes closer in Iowa or pulls off the upset, I imagine his odds in NH will increase significantly.

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-primaries/