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TroyD

(4,551 posts)
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 07:30 AM Sep 2012

CBS/NYT poll: Obama (+3) with LV, (+8) with RV

September 14, 2012 7:00 AM

(CBS News) With the parties' conventions over and Election Day just weeks away, President Barack Obama has a three-point edge over Republican Mitt Romney among likely voters nationwide in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters said they'll vote for Mr. Obama, 46 percent said Romney and 4 percent said they're undecided in the poll conducted from Sept. 8-12.

This is the first national poll in which CBS News and the New York Times have measured the presidential race among likely voters. The measure for likely voters takes into account voters' reported intent to vote, voting history and other factors that historically affect an individual's decision to vote.

President Obama has a wider lead over Romney among the broader group of registered voters nationwide. 51 percent say they'll vote for Mr. Obama (the first time he is above the 50 percent mark), while 43 percent choose Romney. Heading into the parties' conventions, the President and Romney were neck and neck among registered voters.


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57512739/poll-obama-leads-romney-39-percent-say-country-is-worse-off-than-four-years-ago/

~~~~~~~~~~

Likely Voters

Obama = 49%

Romney = 46%

Undecided = 4%

~~~~~~~~~~

Registered Voters

Obama = 51%

Romney = 43%
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CBS/NYT poll: Obama (+3) with LV, (+8) with RV (Original Post) TroyD Sep 2012 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author TroyD Sep 2012 #1
The bump in this poll is large. I explain Blue Yorker Sep 2012 #2

Response to TroyD (Original post)

 

Blue Yorker

(436 posts)
2. The bump in this poll is large. I explain
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 08:19 AM
Sep 2012

This is the first Likely Voter poll conducted by this NYT/CBS pollster. As you can see, the LV screen helps Republicans by taking away 5% of the RV sample (8%) in this poll.

Now consider their last poll before this one, their last RV-only poll. In that one, Romney had a 1% lead over Obama. It's safe to assume that since Romney was ahead in the RV sample by 1%, then he was ahead in the Likely Voter column by an even larger margin, probably 5% or 6%.

So we're talking about Romney going from having a 5-6% lead or so, to Obama having a 3% lead among Likely Voters.

This is a large bump for Obama.

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