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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCOOK POLITICAL gives the edge to Obama...
National Journal:By this time next week, there should be enough national and state-level polling data to present a pretty clear picture of where this election stands, post-Labor Day and after whatever bounces the candidates may have gotten from the conventions. But we have seen enough data in recent weeks to draw some preliminary conclusions about the contests for the White House, the Senate, and, to a lesser extent, the House.
The presidential race is still close and, in a tight election, either candidate can win. Any number of events, not the least of which are debates, campaign gaffes, and domestic or international developments, could put President Obama or Mitt Romney over the top. Although it is pretty clear that Obama has an edge over Romney in national and swing-state polling, the size of his advantage remains in doubt. Every event or development should be judged on whether it might change the path of this election.
My view is that if Obama is reelected, it will be despite the economy and because of his campaign; if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because of the economy and despite his campaign. This economy is an enormous millstone around Obamas neck, yet he and his campaign have managed to secure the upper handalbeit with a very tenuous grip. At the same time, despite an enormous advantage that the sluggish economy and the sentiment for change affords him, Romney and his campaign, to an astonishing degree, seem to have squandered too many opportunities and undermined his chances of winning.
It should be emphasized again and again that this campaign isnt over and that the race is still awfully close. But without a change in the trajectory, its a good bet that Obama will come out on top. The questions are whether the opportunity will arise for that trajectory to change and whether the Romney campaign be able to effectively capitalize on it.
The presidential race is still close and, in a tight election, either candidate can win. Any number of events, not the least of which are debates, campaign gaffes, and domestic or international developments, could put President Obama or Mitt Romney over the top. Although it is pretty clear that Obama has an edge over Romney in national and swing-state polling, the size of his advantage remains in doubt. Every event or development should be judged on whether it might change the path of this election.
My view is that if Obama is reelected, it will be despite the economy and because of his campaign; if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because of the economy and despite his campaign. This economy is an enormous millstone around Obamas neck, yet he and his campaign have managed to secure the upper handalbeit with a very tenuous grip. At the same time, despite an enormous advantage that the sluggish economy and the sentiment for change affords him, Romney and his campaign, to an astonishing degree, seem to have squandered too many opportunities and undermined his chances of winning.
It should be emphasized again and again that this campaign isnt over and that the race is still awfully close. But without a change in the trajectory, its a good bet that Obama will come out on top. The questions are whether the opportunity will arise for that trajectory to change and whether the Romney campaign be able to effectively capitalize on it.
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COOK POLITICAL gives the edge to Obama... (Original Post)
brooklynite
Sep 2012
OP
WeekendWarrior
(1,437 posts)1. I love this "THE ELECTION IS CLOSE" narrative
It isn't close. Obama will win in a landslide.
But I guess invented drama is just as good as real drama for getting reader attention, right?
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)2. Just PAINFUL
reading/hearing these people begrudgingly report positive news for Ds/mitigating really bad news for Rs.
The fact is, BO has at worst been tied, and most often been up a point or two since July, and is now trending rather clearly to create separation.
If everything was completely reversed and it was an R in BO's place/a D in Romney's place this would read, "democratic challenger's candidacy on verge of collapsing. Republican incumbent is trending to solidify a steady lead at the point when the race will start to become entrenched."