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BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
3. If there was a fade to the bounce, we should be seeing signs of that by now.
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 02:27 PM
Sep 2012

I don't see any indication of the post-DNC spread fading. If anything it may be getting stronger with the Mit-wit's daily meltdowns.

Ebadlun

(336 posts)
4. If there was, it's probably been wiped out by Romneyshambles
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 02:29 PM
Sep 2012

It will be interesting to see what the first post-smirk polls say.

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
5. Indeed. The campaign is deep in their bunkers rationalizing that
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 02:38 PM
Sep 2012

"history tells us those convention bounces disappear after a few days. All we have to do is wait a few days and it will be a 50-50 race all over again."

If the current spreads hold into early next week, you are going to see a lot of Republicans crapping their pants, and Romney will be bouncing around like a pinball -- although I don't know that anybody would notice a difference.

2 weeks and 5 days before the first debate. And then they come about one a week right up to election day.

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
6. There is definitely a fade already...
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 03:11 PM
Sep 2012

Two days ago, it was 50-43, yesterday, it was 50-44, and now it's down to 49-44. Each day's current results have been worse than the day that dropped off. Since this is a seven-day poll, there still may be a lot of high Obama margin days right after convention ready to drop off in the next few days. By mid-next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see it back to a two- or three-point margin.

Convention bounces fade -- that's a fact. The issue is whether Obama will take away a lasting gain, even if it two or three points. At this point, I'd say yes...but not much more than that.

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
7. You may be right, but I note
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 04:25 PM
Sep 2012

There is only one convention day included in the 7-day Gallup and it still shows a +5.

Democracy Corps and Fox are entirely post-DNC and they show a +5. CBS is post-DNC and it shows +3.

There may be a little more settling down, but a solid 2-4 national spread should remain

In Ohio, Marist is entirely Post DNC and shows +7. Ras is a little later and shows Obama +1. Figure Ras is pro-GOP by 2-3 points -- they are always an outlier, so a 3 - 5 point spread in OH seems about right. Almost exactly the same story in VA.

 

Blue Yorker

(436 posts)
8. On yesterday's Ipsos tracking, Obama jumped to 7%
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 04:47 PM
Sep 2012

I believe it was 4 or 3% the day before. The fade in Rasmussen may be attributed to his wishful thinking.

Let's not forget, Gallup has a slight pro-Republican bias this season.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
9. 'Gallup has a slight pro-Republican bias this season.'
Fri Sep 14, 2012, 07:57 PM
Sep 2012

It definitely seemed to until this past month. I think Nate Silver pointed it out as well.

But it seems to be correcting now since Gallup has been one of the best pollsters for Obama since the DNC.

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