2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGallup - Obama (+5)
Not bad. I think this is the first Gallup Tracking poll to be taken entirely after the DNC.
Obama - 49%
Romney- 44%
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Obama Approval 49%
Obama Disapproval 43%
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
longship
(40,416 posts)Something tells me it will happen soon.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It's last Friday to yesterday, so this is first poll 100% post-convention
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)I don't see any indication of the post-DNC spread fading. If anything it may be getting stronger with the Mit-wit's daily meltdowns.
Ebadlun
(336 posts)It will be interesting to see what the first post-smirk polls say.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)"history tells us those convention bounces disappear after a few days. All we have to do is wait a few days and it will be a 50-50 race all over again."
If the current spreads hold into early next week, you are going to see a lot of Republicans crapping their pants, and Romney will be bouncing around like a pinball -- although I don't know that anybody would notice a difference.
2 weeks and 5 days before the first debate. And then they come about one a week right up to election day.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)Two days ago, it was 50-43, yesterday, it was 50-44, and now it's down to 49-44. Each day's current results have been worse than the day that dropped off. Since this is a seven-day poll, there still may be a lot of high Obama margin days right after convention ready to drop off in the next few days. By mid-next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see it back to a two- or three-point margin.
Convention bounces fade -- that's a fact. The issue is whether Obama will take away a lasting gain, even if it two or three points. At this point, I'd say yes...but not much more than that.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)There is only one convention day included in the 7-day Gallup and it still shows a +5.
Democracy Corps and Fox are entirely post-DNC and they show a +5. CBS is post-DNC and it shows +3.
There may be a little more settling down, but a solid 2-4 national spread should remain
In Ohio, Marist is entirely Post DNC and shows +7. Ras is a little later and shows Obama +1. Figure Ras is pro-GOP by 2-3 points -- they are always an outlier, so a 3 - 5 point spread in OH seems about right. Almost exactly the same story in VA.
Blue Yorker
(436 posts)I believe it was 4 or 3% the day before. The fade in Rasmussen may be attributed to his wishful thinking.
Let's not forget, Gallup has a slight pro-Republican bias this season.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It definitely seemed to until this past month. I think Nate Silver pointed it out as well.
But it seems to be correcting now since Gallup has been one of the best pollsters for Obama since the DNC.