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2016 Postmortem

pnwmom

(108,997 posts) Wed Jan 6, 2016, 09:08 AM Jan 2016

9

New NBC national poll: Hillary, 53; Bernie, 36; Martin, 2; undecided 8.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-leads-poll-2016-217349

More than half of Donald Trump’s supporters say they are strongly committed to voting for him, according to the results of the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online tracking poll released Tuesday, the first national poll of 2016.

SNIP

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 53 percent to 36 percent, with former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley earning 2 percent and 8 percent saying they are not sure.

The poll was conducted online Dec. 28-Jan. 3, surveying 3,181 registered voters among a sample of 3,700. The margin of error for 949 registered Republican voters is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, while among 1,060 Democrats the margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

11 replies

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Highlight:

New NBC national poll: Hillary, 53; Bernie, 36; Martin, 2; undecided 8. (Original Post) pnwmom Jan 2016 OP

Even gifting ALL of the undecideds and ALL of O'Malley's ... NurseJackie Jan 2016 #1

Yes, and this one is the closer of the polls released today. pnwmom Jan 2016 #2

These numbers even reduced to just Sanders vs Clinton MrChuck Jan 2016 #4

K&R! stonecutter357 Jan 2016 #3

Is there a trend line for this poll? I could not find one. Rybak187 Jan 2016 #5

All you need to do is recalibrate the Pollster model with just the poll you're interested in... brooklynite Jan 2016 #7

It was 49 - 33 last month Godhumor Jan 2016 #8

i was looking for past results because it says it is a weekly tracking poll. Rybak187 Jan 2016 #10

Hillary will be the democratic nominee workinclasszero Jan 2016 #6

So Bernie would need to take 7% from Hillary to get within the margin of error Bradical79 Jan 2016 #9

"The poll was conducted online Dec. 28-Jan. 3" Online poll? Meh. cherokeeprogressive Jan 2016 #11

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

1. Even gifting ALL of the undecideds and ALL of O'Malley's ...

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 09:13 AM

Jan 2016

... percentage points to Bernie, and adding in the entire MOE in Bernie's favor, Bernie will still be losing!

pnwmom

(108,997 posts)

2. Yes, and this one is the closer of the polls released today.

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 09:16 AM

Jan 2016

Hillary's in good shape.

MrChuck

(279 posts)

4. These numbers even reduced to just Sanders vs Clinton

Reply to pnwmom (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 10:51 AM

Jan 2016

Reflect a virtual dead heat nationally.
HRC50/SBS49 -MOM
That's real talk.

stonecutter357

(12,697 posts)

3. K&R!

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 09:53 AM

Jan 2016

Rybak187

(105 posts)

5. Is there a trend line for this poll? I could not find one.

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 10:55 AM

Jan 2016

brooklynite

(94,748 posts)

7. All you need to do is recalibrate the Pollster model with just the poll you're interested in...

Reply to Rybak187 (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:30 AM

Jan 2016

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

8. It was 49 - 33 last month

Reply to Rybak187 (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:31 AM

Jan 2016

So a +1 in total spread to Clinton since last month (In other words, no movement).

Rybak187

(105 posts)

10. i was looking for past results because it says it is a weekly tracking poll.

Reply to Rybak187 (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 12:09 PM

Jan 2016

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

6. Hillary will be the democratic nominee

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:24 AM

Jan 2016

2016 Iowa Presidential Caucuses in 26 days!

Bradical79

(4,490 posts)

9. So Bernie would need to take 7% from Hillary to get within the margin of error

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:34 AM

Jan 2016

I think. Still drinking my coffee so the brain is a little fuzzy

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)

11. "The poll was conducted online Dec. 28-Jan. 3" Online poll? Meh.

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 12:24 PM

Jan 2016

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