This state is not as red as you think. New Indiana Poll: Romney 47%/Obama 41%

A new poll out tonight shows that the state of Indiana is far closer than you think.

Romney 47%
Obama 41%

Murdock (R) 42%
Donnelly (D) 45%

From the National Journal


Another internal poll conducted for Rep. Joe Donnelly's Indiana Senate campaign shows the Democrat in a tight race with GOP Treasurer Richard Mourdock. The poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, shows Donnelly with 45 percent support to Mourdock's 42 percent support, with 14 percent of voters undecided.

The previous Global Strategy Group survey, conducted for Donnelly's campaign in August, showed Donnelly with 41 percent support to Mourdock's 40 percent.

A polling memo released by Global Strategy Group notes that Mourdock has a 34 percent favorability rating, and an identical number of voters rate him unfavorably. The memo doesn't provide Donnelly's favorable/unfavorable numbers, but says that he has a net favorability of 8 points. Mourdock's unfavorable number among undecided voters is twice as high as Donnelly's -- 30 percent to 15 percent.

Donnelly outperforms President Obama in the poll: Mitt Romney, who's expected to win the state in November, is beating the president 47 percent to 41 percent in the poll.

The Senate race has looked tight in all recent polls, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been on air in the state. Now, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is reportedly buying time in the state as well.

The Global Strategy Group poll was conducted September 10-12, surveying 800 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/donnelly-mourdo-1.php

Why this is important and Indiana is that "canary in the coal mine" for the GOP?

There has been ongoing debate as to whether or not the 2012 Presidential election will look more like 2008 or 2004. The fact that Romney is running only 5-8% ahead in Indiana shows how weak he is trending throughout the midwest. Numbers this low in traditionally conservative Indiana definitely point to a GOP loss in places like Ohio and Michigan.

For instance:

2008 ( A very Democratic Year)
Obama 49.9%
McCain 48.8

2004
Bush 59.9%
Kerry 39.3%

2000
Bush 56.6%
Gore 41.4%


If this were a Republican presidential year, Romney would be carrying Indiana by 15-20 points. Not 5-8. This shows that the electorate (at least in the Midwest) is far more in line with a 2008 outcome than a 2004 or 2000 outcome. This poll proves the accuracy of recent polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

If Romney is only carrying Indiana by 10 points on election night, I can assure you Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio will be in Obama's win column.



I also want to add that very quietly, we have a very competitive senate race in Indiana. This is why it's important for DUer's in Red States to get out and vote even if you are not in a battleground state. Dems down ballot will still need a strong turnout. A Democratic win in Indiana will assure us that we will keep the Senate.