2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNEW Quinnipiac IOWA POLL: SANDERS 49 (+9); CLINTON 44 (-7)
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has climbed to a slim lead over national frontrunner Hillary Clinton in a new Iowa poll.
With just 20 days remaining until the first-in-the-nation caucus, a Quinnipiac University poll released today shows Sanders leading Clinton for the first time in the Hawkeye State with 49 percent support -- his highest support in any Iowa poll yet. Clinton garnered 44 percent support.
That's a 9 percentage point increase for Sanders and a 7-point drop for Clinton since the last Quinnipiac poll in Iowa almost one month ago.
Sanders' lead, which is still barely within the margin of error, is bolstered by a broad gender gap. Sanders earns support from six in 10 men and leads Clinton by 31 points among that group. Meanwhile, Clinton leads among women by 16 points.
The poll comes as the Vermont senator's campaign continues to gain momentum in his neighboring state of New Hampshire. He's led recent polling there by double digits, threatening to deliver a blow to Clinton's campaign in the first two contests.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-takes-slim-lead-hillary-clinton-iowa/story?id=36240514
Robbins
(5,066 posts)Quinnipiac can't be dismissed.
Bernie is ahead because his support among men is higher than Clinton's support of women and he has more women supporting him
than clinton has men.
Those thinking bernie could win both Iowa and NH don't sound so crazy anymore
morningfog
(18,115 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)for why Hill will win. I would prefer to let the polls speak for themselves and know that grass roots activism is the real reason Bernie will win. The polls are just a result of grass root efforts.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)It was only in final weeks before iowa that Kerry started to move.and it was in final weeks that Obama started to look like he
could win iowa.
we are now at point when many move beyond who they know and really think about who to vote for.
I supported dean in 2004 but a big part of why Kerry won was he listened to people.even those who disagreed with him on IWR.
Bernie has been working on earning support In Iowa.and it's paying off.
Bernie has been doing it without establishment support and with untill now MSM blackout.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Apparently she hasn't yet learned that being a Clinton does not guarantee a victory. Didn't work in 2008 and its not gonna work now.
CharlotteVale
(2,717 posts)dirtydickcheney
(242 posts)This post made my day!!!
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Guess that's what you get when you're a valued customer of the polling company.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)O'Malley supporters have bernie as second choice far more than Clinton.if he doesn't hit 15% in countys Bernie will benefit by getting many of his supporters.
As you said I don't trust PPP during primary with them being paid by correct the record superpac.conflict of Intrest there.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet.
Go Bernie!
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
retrowire
(10,345 posts)you know, the one that would post the quinnipiac poll every day to inform us all how the primaries were going?
wonder why they stopped posting the poll?
hmmmmmm....
could it be because Hillary is no longer in the lead? nahhh, that can't be it.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)HubertHeaver
(2,522 posts)Gotta earn a living, you know. After all, they don't get paid to post here, do they?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)It is looking like February will start wonderfully.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)It's easier to attack Bernie Sander's supporters at this juncture, I'd say...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110733705
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BERNIE IS!!! Now they're feeling the Bern!!!!
retrowire
(10,345 posts)that those people attacking the head of PP could be the usual suspects?
ie: pro lifers, anti Hillary republicans, etc?
im sure some are Bernie supporters, but to say they're all Bernie supporters? lol where is their "scientific data" to back up that claim?
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)OnlinePoker
(5,727 posts)Someone in the following thread said ARG was a bad poll in 2012, but it looks like they may have it right this time.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141311738
wolfie001
(2,279 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)Take that, Wall Street!
Red Oak
(697 posts)They obviously have one coming up Sunday, but that may not be enough for her to pull even in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
Let's see if DWS calls for a couple of "emergency" debates after the one this Sunday. That would be hilarious.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)No. She'll say she is conceding to Bernie's request for more debates.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Requesting 'more spirited debates'? ....
It was actually quite hilarious ... She suddenly has a desire for more debate face-time ... Her increasing ardor for debates will probably find a member of the DNC leadership who is willing to help her get those debates ...
Crazy world, eh?
Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)Babel_17
(5,400 posts)Though the Sanders campaign would still be energized to win had it been not as good.
Duval
(4,280 posts)aspirant
(3,533 posts)newly interested Millennials. the cell phoners and the first time voters and you have a landslide
jomin41
(559 posts)no matter what happens, this movement has legs!
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)once Hillary's inevitability bubble bursts.......That is when Hillary will start to go very negative.
Dretownblues
(253 posts)With attacks on Sanders for his healthcare plan and guns. The week has a good article on it.
[link:http://
http://theweek.com/articles/598798/hillary-clintons-dirty-attack-bernie-sanders|
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)For the 99%, he's the only common sense candidate running on either side.
Person by person, state by state...his numbers will increase.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)M O M E N T U M.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Beacool
(30,253 posts)"Men support Sanders 61 percent to 30 percent, while women back Clinton 55 percent to 39 percent." Prior to Joni Ernst's election to the Senate in 2014, in their 168 years, IA had never sent a woman to Congress nor had a woman governor.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Beacool
(30,253 posts)I have opposed caucuses for years. IMO they are not democratic in this day and age. They shouldn't exist anymore, all states should hold primaries. I also think that our election system is flawed. No other nation drags the process for almost two years.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)How convenient.
Beacool
(30,253 posts)I do know though, that neither state represents the nation. They are both mostly white and rural.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)and when you consider the trends that already exist, they could have quite an impact this time around.
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/011116-789089-hillaryclinton-lead-nearly-vanishes-among-democrats.htm
^snip^
With just 21 days until the presidential primaries officially begin in Iowa, Hillary Clinton's support among Democrats nationally has taken a serious tumble, falling eight points to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Support for her chief rival, Bernie Sanders, rose six points to 39%.
As a result, Clinton's lead over Sanders, which had been 18 points, is now just four points.
Other polls have shown the race tightening in Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, and New Hampshire, which has its primary eight days later. Two recent New Hampshire surveys have Sanders in the lead, and the latest NBC poll in Iowa has Sanders just three points behind Clinton.
.cms
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I am glad to see these numbers but I need more than one source for them.
I do still believe that Bernie will over perform in a caucus situation. The enthusiasm of his supporters are such that they are more likely to go through that process for him.
I also still believe that some of Hillary's support is just name recognition and that she will tend to under perform, especially in a caucus.