concealed carry in national parks, per liar coburn
Tom Coburn (R sen, okla) May 9th, 2013 interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe": "In 2010, everybody said you can't dare let guns go into the national parks, and of course the rapes, murders, robberies and assaults are down about 85% since we did that."LIAR.
Politifact, may 9, 2013: As we noted, the law went into effect in {feb} 2010, so the most obvious way to frame the comparison would be to use the data from 2009 (the last full year before the gun ban was lifted) and 2011 (the most recent year) --- {DISAGREE, 2010 could be counted as first year of ccw allowance since 'february' enabled, thus 10 months with ccw allowed}.
And as it turns out, the comparison to 2009 is not nearly as favorable to Coburn’s overall point. Between 2009 and 2011, these four categories of violent crimes actually rose collectively by 5 percent. Robberies did decline by 9%, but murders more than doubled (from a very small base), the number of rapes was stable and the tally of aggravated assaults -- by far the most common of these four crimes -- rose by 9%.
.......... murder .. (rape,robb,aggr asslt) .. total violcrime
2008 ......... 5 ............. (see link) ................... 367
2009 ......... 3 ................................................ 307
2010(ccw) .. 15 ............................................. 369 - ccw enabled february
2011 ......... 7 ................................................ 323
change 08 - 11: +40% murder .................. -12% total v-crime (Coburn's world, hardly 85%)
change 09 - 11: +133% murder ................ +5% total v-crime
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/may/09/tom-coburn/tom-coburn-says-after-national-park-gun-ban-lifted/
Coburn’s office acknowledges that he misspoke {altho he cited accurately from his 2nd Amendment Mythology Bible}; they actually calculated a decline of 12%, which is dramatically lower than 85%. But we find even the revised statistic to be questionable. It hinges on using {cherry picked start year} 2008 data, when 2009 data would be more appropriate -- and a comparison using data from 2009 actually shows an increase in violent crime in national parks since the gun ban took effect. Meanwhile, it’s far from clear that guns had an influence on the relatively small number of crimes that take place in national parks.
We rate Coburn’s statement False.
MORE GUNS, MORE LIES
= new reply since forum marked as read
nat parks link: {R,OK} Sen. Tom Coburn, who used sleight of legislative hand to see that national park visitors could arm themselves.. It was {coburn} who, 2009, attached an amendment to credit card legislation to allow national park visitors to carry firearms as long as they were allowed to carry in the state the park was located.
I had so hoped obama would've vetoed this 2009/10 legislation allowing ccw in national parks, signing the e-solicitations from our various guncontrol groups, both to congress & the president. I suspect pro gun federal legislation passed with nra backing, in the future will be vetoed by obama, such as national ccw reciprocity.
may2013: Last week, Morning Joe, Coburn boasted that "
I)n 2010, everybody said you can't dare let guns go into the national parks, and of course the rapes, murders, robberies and assaults are down about 85% since we did that."
Coburn's remark is utterly duplicitous; people on tv misspeak on occasion, but when there is no substance for the misspeak, sometimes it's intentional in order to mislead.
Where did coburn get his figures? Likely 2nd Amendment mythology sources using progun calculators. So coburn said it & gunnutworld watching morning joe swallowed it hook line & sinker & blogs will spread it, & coburn's remark, based on 2ndA mythology, could subsequently become a NEW part of the 2nd Amendment Mythology.
I guess there is a chance it will be shot down, 'guncite' website can be somewhat fair in reporting the truth, but there'll be a lag time where gun zealots will be ecstatic over coburn's lie.
And if you use 2009 as the base year, which Politifact says would be a more accurate approach, murders jumped from three to seven in 2011 -- and there were 15 in 2010, the year the legislation took effect. http://www.nationalparkstraveler.com/2013/05/senator-coburn-vastly-misstates-impact-allowing-guns-national-parks23200
The ccw law went into effect in late february 2010, so the 2010 year - 15 murders - would be under the ccw's law effect for more than 10 months; unless those 15 murders all happened in january & february, they were done under the auspices of the ccw law (which states murders occurred in has to do, also). Coburn tapdances around this. (Murder/crime more likely occurs in warmer weather, not jan & feb).
So the spike to 15 in murders in 2010 actually got ignored in this instance! like it never happened! figuring 2010 was limbo land, where neither side was responsible for the 15 murders, just citing 5 murders in 2008, 3 in 2009, & 7 in 2011! If the bill was passed in may june july or august it would be hard to argue, but in february?
Coburn wasn't about to include 2010 murder stats in with 'ccw start year', but if the law had passed in october 2010 you can be sure he would've linked 2010 with 'lack of concealed carry' & touted how 2011 showed such the marked decline in murder!
