Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forumInteresting observation today
Clinton supporters i don't have on my ignore list are now saying iowa and NH don't matter clinton will likely win nomination anyway.
Seems like they are conceding iowa and NH.hardly the actions of confident supporters.
only 2 candidates since 1972 have technically lost both and won nomination.
George Mcgovern In 1972 and Bill CLinton In 1992.CLinton supporters without knowing have compared clinton to Mcgovern
and as i keep pointing out Bill Clinton conceded iowa and after first round of clinton scandal declared himself the comeback kid
after strong second place finish win In NH.he was not the inevitable front runner who campaigned in both states and lost.
Turnout will be everything.and tonight we will learn just how accurate the likely voter models are.
Faux pas
(14,681 posts)Depaysement
(1,835 posts)Robbins
(5,066 posts)they are lying when they say they expected a close race.
I gurante you they will say they lost iowa and Nh because they aren't diverse state-meaning they are too whites-and NH is next door to vermont.
Depaysement
(1,835 posts)Jarqui
(10,126 posts)knowing what is at stake :
that for the first 20 days of the primary the media will have little to talk about except "what's wrong with Hillary?" and "why can't she win?" and they'll spin damaging answers = free advertising for Bernie where the media are bashing his rival.
She'll try to blame it on those two states being good for Sanders but when the next two states polls for Sanders start climbing and they already are ... it's going to get tougher to explain - particularly if Bernie takes Nevada.
Hillary needs to win Iowa a lot more than Bernie does.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)large cash expenditures and have the press saying your candidate is "tanking" et al. I think with each loss, especially in the beginning, the harder it's going to be to raise funds. She and her folk did not prepare for having to spend so much money and still lose in Iowa.
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)- smothered him in the mainstream media - less coverage than many of the GOP contenders
- hit him hard with ads
- had WaPo and NYT do dishonest hit piece editorials - they likes of which I have never seen from those papers against progressive candidates
- had other nuisance stuff run in the media
- tilted the Des Moines Register coverage to not mention her top secret emails on any pages I could find
- she's lied on the stump or had her daughter doing it for her, etc
- they've had the DNC against him
- they've had David Brock up to his tricks
- the consistent slant of the demographics to favor her in the polling had me wondering how many they paid for
- had Obama go as far as he could without endorsing her
- got her gazillions of endorsements - bought endorsements from union management/establishment
etc
They've got Obama people working for her campaign and good folks on the ground.
To have her come up short, if she does, then they have a real candidate problem.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Robbins
(5,066 posts)I think bernie could use iowa win for momenturm even if he only wins by 1% he would have proven outside of NH he can beat her
despite her having all the advantages.if she preveils In Iowa they go back to dismissing bernie.
however even if clinton only wins by 2 or 3% the story comes the so called inevitable nominee is struggling against the so called
fringe candiate.republicans will say hillary clinton is so weak she struggled In iowa against the socialist.
who wins is more important than who gets most delegates out of iowa because that frames the race.In 2008 clinton won nevada but obama got more delegates although few remembered that.In 2012 at first it looked like romney won iowa only later it turned out santurum did but actully Paul got more delegates out of Iowa.
tradional if iowa and NH split winners the iowa winner preveils-see mondale in 1984 and obama in 2008.1992 can't be compared since iowa was conceded to Harken.Dukakis came in third In iowa and won NH and nomination In 1988.
In last 3 days we had 3 iowa polls which all point to dead heat.1 3 point lead for clinton.1 1 point lead for bernie and 1 3 point lead for bernie.
Don't forget despite what pundits claim polling show bernie is second choice of more O'Malley supporters so bernie could pick up some from them.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)First one in the dead heat I've seen lately.