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cal04

(41,505 posts)
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 09:24 AM Feb 2016

Coin toss broke 6 Clinton-Sanders deadlocks in Iowa — and Hillary won each time

While it was hard to call a winner between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders last night, it’s easy to say who was luckier.

The race between the Democrat presidential hopefuls was so tight in the Iowa caucus Monday that in at least six precincts, the decision on awarding a county delegate came down to a coin toss. And Clinton won all six, media reports said.

(snip)
While it may seem a chancy way to break a deadlock, official state rules lay out the procedure. Iowa’s Democratic caucus guide says: “Note: In a case where two or more preference groups are tied for the loss of a delegate, a coin shall be tossed to determine who loses the delegate,” the Independent newspaper pointed out.

(snip)
As for that statewide Democratic race, it was too close to call for most of the night. Clinton declared victory early Tuesday morning, with all but one of the Iowa precincts reporting, with 49.9% of the delegates to the state convention. Sanders was a squeak behind, with 49.6% — perhaps the real winner, with that unexpected showing.[/b[ For a blow-by-blow recap, check out our live blog

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/coin-toss-broke-6-clinton-sanders-deadlocks-in-iowa-and-hillary-won-each-time-2016-02-02?link=MW_home_latest_news

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Coin toss broke 6 Clinton-Sanders deadlocks in Iowa — and Hillary won each time (Original Post) cal04 Feb 2016 OP
the probability of that is 1 / 64 phantom power Feb 2016 #1
Which makes her lucky in this instance... ljm2002 Feb 2016 #14
Runs in a Bernoulli process happen more often than people usually assume. phantom power Feb 2016 #15
Interesting... ljm2002 Feb 2016 #16
The key section in the provision is... StandingInLeftField Feb 2016 #2
o.o What the fuck happened in Iowa?!??! nt retrowire Feb 2016 #4
I have no idea! StandingInLeftField Feb 2016 #10
It was so close that in Florida it would be grounds for a recount. Baitball Blogger Feb 2016 #3
Hmmmmm. AzDar Feb 2016 #5
I'm not clear on how delegates are allocated – is it one per precinct? snot Feb 2016 #6
Like OK at it another way TexasBushwhacker Feb 2016 #17
If anything else like this happens... PyaarRevolution Feb 2016 #7
I don't know... MoonchildCA Feb 2016 #8
Awarding delegates by coin toss is just ludicrous. grntuscarora Feb 2016 #9
They could change the rules to award one fewer delegate from a precinct when there is a tie. Eric J in MN Feb 2016 #12
"Sanders was a squeak behind, with 49.6% — perhaps the real winner, with that unexpected showing." SoapBox Feb 2016 #11
The coin toss "winner", loses the delegates... SoapBox Feb 2016 #13

ljm2002

(10,751 posts)
14. Which makes her lucky in this instance...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:43 PM
Feb 2016

...but those odds aren't so long that it seems fishy, at least to me.

I've lived in Vegas too long.

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
15. Runs in a Bernoulli process happen more often than people usually assume.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:13 PM
Feb 2016

In fact, one way to detect when somebody is trying to fake random data is that they will almost always have substantially fewer runs of consecutive equal values than actually appear in a truly random sequence.

ljm2002

(10,751 posts)
16. Interesting...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:35 PM
Feb 2016

...thanks for that information about real random data vs. pseudo random data.

Sometimes things that seem like just common sense, do not actually represent how things are.

OTOH, we all do need to retain a lot of common sense just to get through the day. But the fact that math, and science, can fly in the face of common sense is one of the reasons why we need a more math- and science-literate population, so that people have a better understanding of these things.

Not claiming that anyone asking about the coin tosses does not have an understanding BTW, just making general comments.

2. The key section in the provision is...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 09:51 AM
Feb 2016

"In a case where two or more preference groups are tied for the loss of a delegate, a coin shall be tossed to determine who loses the delegate" [bold added]

Does this mean that Bernie WON the coin toss? I keep hearing that CTC (Coin-Toss Clinton) WON the toss?????

snot

(10,538 posts)
6. I'm not clear on how delegates are allocated – is it one per precinct?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:57 AM
Feb 2016

So if the coin tosses had gone the other way, Bernie would have been up 24 delgates to Hillary's 19?

Or what is the relationship between the "Vote" percentage totals and the delegate counts? (I think I understand the Dem. caucus process, just not how the results are counted toward votes and delegates.)

TexasBushwhacker

(20,214 posts)
17. Like OK at it another way
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:14 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie outright won 21 delegates. HRC won 23 delegates but 6 were from coin flips. So Hillary outright only won 17 delegates.

It seems to me that a coin flip could be used for a single tied precinct, but since there were 6 they should give 3 delegates to each. That would have resulted in Bernie 24 to Hillary's 20.

BERNIE WON!!!

PyaarRevolution

(814 posts)
7. If anything else like this happens...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:06 AM
Feb 2016

From the DNC it could cost Hillary the GE. The one thing Hillary needs to make SURE of is that no choosing happens behind closed doors. In other words, the independent Superdelegates at the DNC should NOT choose someone unless there's been a clear winner when coming to that point.

grntuscarora

(1,249 posts)
9. Awarding delegates by coin toss is just ludicrous.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:53 AM
Feb 2016

imo.

Couldn't they come up with something a little more democratic and a little less like a Las Vegas casino?

Not that I have any suggestions at the moment...

Eric J in MN

(35,619 posts)
12. They could change the rules to award one fewer delegate from a precinct when there is a tie.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:44 PM
Feb 2016

But it would be better if the DNC forced all caucus states to switch to primaries.

As a Minnesotan, I'm in a caucus state, and I'd prefer a primary.

SoapBox

(18,791 posts)
11. "Sanders was a squeak behind, with 49.6% — perhaps the real winner, with that unexpected showing."
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:39 PM
Feb 2016

Hmmmm....

Funny...I didn't think his showing to be unexpected at all.

Goes to show how the lame ass MSM STILL didn't understand the immensity of this movement.

SoapBox

(18,791 posts)
13. The coin toss "winner", loses the delegates...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:06 PM
Feb 2016

So I wonder if anyone continues to look into this? Was it just a verbiage error by the lame media?

Seems like it's something to check out by Bernie's campaign...but I suppose Iowa is now old news (as in no one other than use cares) and it's on to NH.

---------

Wilson4BERNIE
Wilson4BERNIE? @sandlotjoe

@maddow @chrislhayes What about this #rule28 ?
appears to be handled wrong. Coin toss decides who LOSES the delegate https://twitter.com/LifeforceVibes/status/694462008473706496

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