Good News for Bernie Supporters: Final Vote on "TPP" could come in Middle of Election Campaign 2016

Supporters of the TPP hoped that they could get Congress to sign off on the pact before the notion of global trade gets caught in the inevitable election-year backlash against Wall Street, corporations and low-wage economies overseas that have syphoned jobs from rust belt swing states in the Midwest and elsewhere.

But now, lawmakers will be asked to take a tough vote that could expose them to attacks from opponents of the deal.

TPP nations may ink a final agreement at a ministerial meeting this summer and could present the deal as the highlight of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum later this year.

But there's no guarantee the fragile coalition assembled by Obama and McConnell -- mostly Republican but bolstered by pro-trade Democrats -- will survive. And the clock is ticking.

"I am very doubtful we can have a ratification vote before the end of this year," said Mireya Solis, a specialist on Japanese economic policy at the Brookings Institution. "We are thinking this is going to spill over to 2016 and this opens up all kinds of interesting possibilities."

Peril for Hillary Clinton

While Obama and McConnell can claim a share of the spoils, the big loser could be Hillary Clinton.

The debate over fast-track has put Clinton in a dicey political spot given her past support for the TPP, which she once called the "gold standard" of trade agreements.

Since then Clinton, already facing suspicion among Democratic primary voters about her links to Wall Street and big business, has rowed back -- insisting that Congress should use the fast-track authority as leverage to getting a better TPP arrangement.

If a final TPP deal is agreed to, the lengthy ratification process will likely mean Clinton is stuck with the issue through the Democratic primary season.

Wherever she comes down on TPP, she would be open to dreaded charges of flip-flopping by Republicans, which could exacerbate questions of trust in her character that have emerged in recent opinion polls.

And TPP opponents will not make her life any easier.



Some TPP opponents believe the backlash could force the White House and Republicans to delay ratification until a lame-duck session of Congress after the November 2016 election.

And RoseAnn DeMoro, executive director of the National Nurses United union, which also opposes the TPP, predicted that support for the pact could be incompatible with an election in which economic inequality and the power of corporations will be driving issues.




http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/24/politics/trade-bill-obama-clinton-mcconnell/index.html