Bernie Sanders

berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts) Tue Apr 19, 2016, 08:50 AM Apr 2016

About those NY Polls...

In particular, the latest Emerson Poll that has Hillary winning 54-40.

If you look at the cross-tabs here: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_609633cab6a34f4195b75876c1426189.xlsx?dn=ecps_NY_final.xlsx

You can see two huge problems right away:

1. Women were sampled 57% to men 43%... This is far from the demographics of the state and the party, which are closer to 52-48.

2. African Americans were over sampled by about 4-5% and this looks due to the fact that most of the poll responders came from NYC itself vs. state-wide.

If you correct just based on the over sampling of women, you get a 53-47 split which is more in-line with the recent Gravis polls taken 4/13 and 4/5-4/6. Based on this, I'm seeing a single digit win for Hillary in the 5-7% range, which would be an upset given the recent polling and expectations that she's going to win by double-digits. A single digit win would mean Hillary barely held her home state and she's going to have a real problem reaching the pledged delegate numbers she needs. Sanders was never expected to come this close in NY.

4 replies

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About those NY Polls... (Original Post) berni_mccoy Apr 2016 OP

Rec-aroo! Fingers crossed. I'm driving up there to GOTV today. JudyM Apr 2016 #1

IF she wins, the margin depends on what percentage the Central Tabulators were programmed in_cog_ni_to Apr 2016 #2

'Sanders was never expected to come this close in NY.' HereSince1628 Apr 2016 #3

There is only one poll that matters RoccoR5955 Apr 2016 #4

JudyM

(29,250 posts)

1. Rec-aroo! Fingers crossed. I'm driving up there to GOTV today.

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 08:55 AM

Apr 2016

Cmon, everyone, let's all do whatever we can today to get out the vote -- every little bit of effort compounds!

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)

2. IF she wins, the margin depends on what percentage the Central Tabulators were programmed

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:07 AM

Apr 2016

to flip. Richard Charnin said the Central Tabulators are programmed to correlate with the polls so it gives plausible deniability...doesn't stick out like a sore thumb.

IF she wins NY, it will be by a large enough percentage that gives her mega bragging rights. Bernie can't come close because THAT gives him mega bragging rights going forward - and YUUUUUUGE MOMENTUM.

GO NY!

GO BERNIE!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)

3. 'Sanders was never expected to come this close in NY.'

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:11 AM

Apr 2016

Except by his supporters.

The result, of course, will be whatever it turns out to be. In a closed primary where participation is rigged to favor 'active democrats' as defined by party insiders I would expect the results to look more favorable to the insider than general polling.

I hope it leaves Sanders still building support across the remaining contests in that region. A win by Clinton will be pushed as popping Sanders growth. I too expect the win will be in single digits rather than being a big blowout with a margin over 15%.

I'm not going to kid myself into thinking Sanders doesn't need wins to win. He does; he -really- does.

But when he doesn't win, and realistically he isn't going to win all the remaining states... he needs to suck up delegates as best he can. It looks like NY is structured to allow that. Sanders generally does better away from urban areas and my hope is he does very well away from NYC.

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)

4. There is only one poll that matters

Reply to berni_mccoy (Original post)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:56 AM

Apr 2016

And we shall find out that that poll has Bernie in the lead after 9 pm.
Have faith!

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